Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley and Randwick on 23 August 2013. Last week was a little painful with Charmed Harmony losing in a photo as our best but thankfully Gregers was a painless next best and our prediction of at least a length victory was more than right. The ‘other bets’ didn’t go to plan though and that left us needing a better effort today. Thankfully, Mr Chard delivered during the week for those who follow the tweets winning at Hawksbury. This is a fairly challenging card at Moonee Valley today and the confidence factors aren’t as high as previous weeks, but I do like the Quaddie this week. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 Under the Louvre
We are getting the right price again today for Under The Louvre. This is a very competitive race so i’m not suggesting that this is put money in take money out today, but we are getting close to $4 for a horse I believe is a much better chance than the odds suggest based on what I have seen this prep. The horse peaked last start and looks to be a horse who is best suited the Moonee Valley track. We will hear this horses name for years to come and I think UTL will be competing in a Group race this prep against our best runners at the Valley.
Sydney Best Bet
Randwick Race 2 Self Sense (to place)
I’m very happy to recommend you bet this horse on the E/W, but for the records, this tip is going up as a place bet. Highly above the correct odds and even more value on the place on my ratings. Sydney continues to under-estimate these quality Victorian raiders and we are getting a great price today. Won three in a row including two holding 60kg. Down in weight today and back to heavy where the horse has won one of those previous 3. Likes it wet and looks suited by mapping.
Melbourne Next Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Kencella and Shamal Wind
Two horse play. We have the front and back of the field covered with these two runners today who on previous runs rate about 1.5 lengths ahead of the next best in the race. As long as they return at their best, i’m expecting a result in our favour.
Melbourne Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 2 Voila Ici
WFA G-1 winner who ran in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Way back in class today (try find the last time the horse ran in a race this low down in the ratings) and a few runs back, twice in a row at this course and distance ran close placings. Expected to get an easy lead today and is crazy value at the prices available, especially with the Good track and rail expected to be suitable early for leaders over this distance. Weighted to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7 Mulaqen
Suited by track and lack of quality runners today, we are getting a very good price for Mulaqen. Stable have suggested they will be pushing forward and even competing for the lead. Oliver on board and the ride will either win it or lose it. I like this type of horse and strategy, we won’t be left wondering or blocked for a run, we will have every chance for our money.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 13, 15
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Occitan: Time first up was ok but that was a BM-69 and this is much harder. Did show ability at 2. Don’t dismiss.
Afleet Esprit: First two runs this prep have been good. Has to improve again today but has the ability to. David Hayes thinks she is a very good chance today.
See Me Flash: Improved run last start at Bendigo but this is Much harder. Has to find much more.
Cool Hero: Good maiden win and then ran well enough at course over 1000m last start. Looking for 1200m and maps well.
Avanti: 3-4 lengths off them last prep and previous prep in similar class. Has to have trained on and then some.
Tahni Dancer: Showed a lack of anything first prep for mine. Not here first up.
Hostile Witness: Ran well enough first up at Sale on Heavy but can you be confident here? No.
Super Wildwood: First run ever thrown in the deep end. Williams takes the ride. If she is any good she goes well here.
Comments: Tough race to start the day.
Strategy: Cool Hero to win
Moonee Valley Race 2
Voila Ici: I can’t believe the price being bet today for this guy! WFA-G1 winner with 9 wins on a Good surface and wins over this distance. Three and Four back he ran 0.4L and 0.8L 2nd and 3rd at course and distance in OPEN class. Back to BM-90 today, off 59.5kg after claims, he is only up slightly in weight. Maps to have the lead and will have every chance. Big odds.
Prizum: Continues to run well and just keeps finding one too good. 56kg today brings him in well again and won’t be far off them. Issue is 0 wins from 17 starts on Good.
Post D’France: Very poor run last start at Flemington after a decent run behind Backbone previously. Looking for more sting out of the ground than he will get today for mine but does like MV.
Flashy Fella: Very poor last start and hard to back on that run plus this jockey.
Wrotham Heath: Hard to explain the last start effort as 2nd favourite at Flemington. Harder race today on paper from mine as well but based on two back run you have to respect.
Count Encosta: Not disgraced last start at Flemington when 2L 2nd. Weighted equally today and back to MV where he looked suited. Get the feeling he would like it wetter.
Vintage Lad: Good run last start at course and distance when 0.3L 2nd to Bagman in a 5 horse race. Time of the race was only fair though and have to suggest he got the run of the race from position which got him so close and flattered the run more than the form.
Tycoon Rob: Can’t win. Highly doubt he backs up here either.
Bachelor Royal: Showed nothing last run in similar grade and hard to see the progression.
Purple Tiger: Not in this race today.
Comments: Voila Ici, Wrotham Heath and Count Encosta the stand outs on form here. Voila Ici a massive price.
Strategy: Voila Ici E/W
Moonee Valley Race 3
Henwood: Back in distance and back in class today. Also Boss comes off which is a positive. Has won at track before and at distance. 59kg after claims but goes well enough on Good tracks. Barrier helps. Has enough ability to threaten these.
So Swift: Hasn’t been seen since 2012. Won a 3YO-GP2 over 1600m and ran well at this distance in 2YO class but that is a long time off at the weights in this class. Not for me but probably couldn’t hurt to have a 5er on at the odds if you like him.
Solsay: Good horse who has found a runner too good the last four runs. Went well but just beaten first up over the 1000m in higher class. Back in class today but up 6kg, will have to improve today on my ratings to be first home. Maps well.
Our Hand of Faith: Breathing issues to finish the prep last prep but did show enough class to suggest he can run well today first up. Likes it Good as well.
Under The Louvre: The absolute stand out for me, the win last start at course and distance was eye-catching. He finds himself in a much harder race on looks, but he killed Hard Stride last start who came out last week and beat WFA-G1 winner Moment of Change by a 2lengths so the form stacks up.
Laohu: Maps to be out the front today. Very good run first up behind Couldn’t Agreemore and weighted nicely again today. Chance today.
Academy Jack: Blocked for runs last start at MV. Gains 5.5kg on Under the Louvre today which gives him a chance today for that 3L defeat. Respect but better on dead surfaces than good.
Trust in a Gust: Good horse in 3YO class last prep but this looks a tougher grade on paper for mine to take on first up. Likes it any condition which is a positive but barrier 9 means working early to get a good spot. Likes the distance. Hard to ignore.
Stratigraphy: Hard to have here first up today. Doesn’t look good enough.
Comments: Very good race on paper. I have to back in Under the Louvre on everything I have seen with the class of the horse. Laohu maps to have every chance out the front and deserves money on also.
Strategy: 3 units on Under the Louvre to win. 1 unit on Laohu to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Devonshire Duke: Won 2 of last three and two runs either side of those wins were close 2nd and 3rds. Up to 60kg today looks to be a tough weight but in this class does look fine. Barrier an issue.
Pyrrolic: Beat Hard Stride on slow two back and then ran well last start at Caulfield for 4th. Barrier hurts and has to improve out into open class from 3YO races for line. Oliver can get the horse home but not for mine at the price.
Anudjawun: Never won at distance. Needs further and happy to avoid even though likes the track!
Daybreak: Good horse last prep but shown nothing this prep. Back to Good tracks more suitable than slow but hard to rate.
Excited Spirit: Barrier does hurt. Shown best on wetter tracks than this and best seen late into last prep.
Master’s Degree: Good horse who showed best over 2400m last prep. Never won first up or 2nd up or at distance.
Royal Mephisto: Didn’t measure up last start in similar class at Flemington. 59kg looks a little tough but last run at course was a win. Needs further imo.
Nisos: Never won first or second up or at distance. Best shown over 2000m in lesser grade. Need to surprise to win.
Aliyana: Big win last start over 1400m in similar grade at Flemington off a slowish run race. Up in weight and maps ok but barrier is an issue to get in.
Kinselmac Manner: Didn’t handle the heavy last start at Moe after being a surprise winner at Caulfeild. Back to dryer track hurts though. Hard to bag him here though, best form in a long time.
Warwarick: Just ignore last start when still ran well when lame post race. Barrier helps alot but Good track is a concern. Did jar up last start Stable reports.
Relentless: Decent horse but even at the weights looks outclassed off previous runs and times.
Rose of Texas: Big step up in class. Not up to it.
The Shank: A few people like this horse. I’m not sold if i’m honest.
Verification: Not the same horse from previous preps this time around.
Comments: Not very keen to play here but Warwarick on top.
Strategy: Warwarick to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Esprit Rossa: Failed to show anything last prep. Has won over similar distances in the past but certainly showed her best over 1600m and on wetter tracks than this today but did still run a good race on a Good track three back. Top weight, i can’t have.
Flash of Doubt: Very poor run last start at Caulfield. Back in class here today but many questions. Never won on Good or at distance.
Girl Guide: Progressed through the grades last prep and ended placing in Group 3 level. Weighted nicely and David Hayes likes her chances. Trialled very well.
Secret Toy Bizness: Ran very well first up last prep at course and distance on this surface of track but showed nothing after that. Finds a few too good on my ratings.
Snippetee Bee: First run in Victoria for this Tassy runner. Last prep showed had some class. Not sure she measures up straight away and needs the run?
Benenden: Never won first up or at track. Been 10 months off between runs. Did show class at 3 and did measure up well enough in this grade last prep. Get the feeling she has to get a good run and barrier 13 will prevent that.
Splash of Moet: Just write-off last start at Flemington. Back in class and down to 53.5kg today with the claim. Maps very well from barrier 3 and looks suited.
Vain Attraction: Always runs a good race when you write her off. Hasn’t won since 2012 though.
Jacinta: Two runs this prep have been fairly disappointing compared to the previous prep. Back down to the Melbourne way may do the trick and also a good track should help. Can measure up.
Mezeray Miss: A little disappointed by the run first up but isn’t suited by slow. Back in class and down 3kg today… barrier is the concern to get a good run. Can win.
Vicario: Can’t give her much hope here on recent form.
Unique Storm: Continues to run solid races without winning this prep. 52kg again today and will be there at the 200m.
Gold Heist: 1.3L 2nd to Atlantis Dream before spell last start. Up in class but 52kg gets her in very well at the weights and the win over Mrs Hadlee the previous run at Caulfield is also good.
Comments: I have to take on Girl Guide at the price today. I think Splash of Moet is value at the weights as well. Mezeray Miss looks a big outsider chance at odds while Gold Heist also has to be respected.
Strategy: 2 units Spalsh of Moet. 0.5 units Mezeray Miss & Gold Heist.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Merion: Showed a lot of promise as a 2YO and is one I am very keen on being on here today. Looks to be aimed at the features this year and if returns the way I expect, will be running very well today and starting a strong campaign. Looks value.
Orujo: Been well backed in the markets since opening. Never been far off the last four runs including two wins. Much harder today but Trevinder franked the form. Will run well. Barrier an issue for good spot!
Petrology: Good enough first prep when measured up in similar class. Hayes thinks he measures up.
Tudor: Decent run and win last start at Bendigo but this is a big step back up in class. Not for me.
Coram: Good enough run last start off a slow tempo which was the difference. Will measure up but has to improve again.
Turfane: Very disappointing run last start. Hard to ignore how poor it was. Not sure what to make of him here but can’t back.
Fast Cash: Ran ok second up after winning well in a maiden first up. Has to improve and also push forward.
Caveka: Painless maiden win first up. Has to go to another gear but may just have it. Good barrier.
Rich Enuff: Just missed only run last prep at huge odds. Can compete again but has to find more today.
Sovereign Duke: Maiden only winner and wasn’t that impressed. Not for me.
Comments: Very happy to be taking a risk on Merion in this field today.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5
Strategy: Merion E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7
Hippopus: Good enough run first up at course over shorter distance and battled to line without looking the winner. Up in distance will help and back in class also. Winning chance.
Kindergarden Kid: Very poor run last start when having every chance. Good track today could be the difference? Not out of the chances.
De Fine Lago: No thanks not the same horse this prep.
Zabeelionaire: Good surface is this horses worst record surface. Last two runs have been great but I can’t have on the surface today at the weights. Never won at track either.
Crafty Cruiser: Not for me here. Just not good enough.
Mulaqen: Very disappointing run last start at MV… back to best surface today though and D Oliver takes the ride. Huge plus and plus. Big chance.
Angelology: Battled only fairly to the line last start. Prefer more rain affected ground to find his best.
Caroun: Never won on good or dead. No thanks.
Unique Assassin: Bm-64 winner last start. Did have 63kg and down to 51kg today.. but can’t see placing here.
Compound: Good horse last prep but hard to consider on runs this prep.
Ayushman: No thanks not on this form lines.
Comments: Good track, happy to be on Mulaqen here at the price available. Think Kindergarden Kid can improve today also.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6
Strategy: Mulaqen to win. Smaller bet Kindergarden Kid.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Sea Lord: Shown nothing to suggest can win here with this weight this prep.
Kencella: Very good horse who won a Group 3 last prep. Best runs have been on Good tracks and has a blistering final sectional which can put this class of race away. Oliver takes the ride and barrier 3.. maps to lead and win if the rail is on.
Villa Verde: First up last prep got home with a WFA-G2 win which was helped by the part of the track she took home on a slow surface. Good track today and a short straight, I’m very happy to be against her at the odds being offered.
Iconic: Didn’t measure up last prep to the lofty heights we thought he would after a 2nd to Lankan Rupee. Is a good horse but weighted fairly here today and never won on Good.
African Pulse: Not going good enough for this.
Our Nkwazi: Not classy enough to make this jump.
Just A Bullet: Won 4 of 6 and just missed only run last prep.. but this is 10X harder class.
Shamal Wind: Won 4 from 4 first up and reports are that she is flying. Will have to circle the whole field is the issue and the leader has a very good closing sectional. Her best runs have been on a Good track over this distance and has won only run at this track. Massive chance.
Angelic Light: Looked to be progressing towards being a very good horse but hasn’t been seen for more than a year. Ran a close 2nd to Platelet in FM-GP1 company and is a 3YO winner beating the talented flamberge. Has the ability but first up and is she as good as these? Loves the track but more suited to 1200m.
Minaj: Just how good is she? We had her as our best bet when she won by 5.5L here over 950m with 53kg. She won a decent race in 3YO class after that but didn’t measure up in this type of class for mine. Good horse but has everything to prove today. I’d be surprised, but not shocked if she won today.
Angels Beach: Won all three runs last prep progressing through the grades. Times didn’t blow anyone away though and didn’t have to beat much to get the wins. Happy to bet around.
Comments: Very happy to be betting around two horses in this race.
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 10
Strategy: Equal sized bets on Kencella and Shamal Wind.
Moonee Valley Race 9
Streets Away: I like this horse but he is very hard to get a hold of. Runs well enough first up but finds his best second up. Only run was a win at this track. The horse looks gone at stages during his runs but battles on well normally. Last start very disappointing so not sure how I can recommend today.
Foundry: Two runs last prep for a win and a close 2nd at similar distances. Loves it on a good track and was a very good horse over in the UK. This isn’t his main goal though so how fit will he exactly be first up? 90% could still win this.
Blackie: Absolute gut buster last start at MV behind The Cleaner and just didn’t have it in him to catch them. Not for me today.
Mobaco: First up Weir runner Oliver takes the ride. French Group 3 winner and previous to that won 3YO listed race. Last prep didn’t show anything in Listed/WFA class over in the UK. Not been seen for a year. Hard to rate. Best runs were on Good.
Jacquinot Bay: Only ran fairly last start without impressing much at all. Maps to have a good run but hard to see the big improvement required.
Mourinho: Very good last prep when kept measuring up. First up ran a close 2nd in Group 3 company and kept running on. Best form seen on wetter tracks.
Zanbagh: Finished off her 3YO campaign with a close 2nd to Rising Romance at Randwick over 2400m which looked to be her best run of the prep. At the weights in this class of race in open grade at this distance on a good track I have to take her on.
Hvasstan: Never won at distance. Better over further and never won on Good.
Shanghai Warrior: I actually thought his run last start had a lot of merit when behind Tiger Tees and he pulled up lame. Barrier hurts today in this class though and big distance increase.
The United States: Good run first up in Australia for this import WFA-G3 irish winner. Loves a Good track which is a good sign and 1500m is a decent distance. Barrier hurts to get a forward enough run though.
Fast and Free: Perfect ride last start by Jackie on this brave horse who loves MV. Wasn’t good enough to get past The Cleaner but few are. Down to 52kg and maps very well from barrier 8. Suited by track condition also. #Suited. Been backed in as well.
St Jean: Love this horse. Has a huge amount of ability and faces any battle put before him. Distance certainly not his go but he has the ability and can fly fresh. Can’t ignore.
Rugged Cross: Back to 1500m looks a little concern today but did win only run this prep over 1400m. Best been seen with sting out of ground. Last start was good but can’t see measuring up again here from barrier.
Comments: Widest leg of the Quaddie. Looks to be a fair bit of value around with these runners.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 13, 15
Strategy: Fast and Free on top
Randwick Race 2
The Sydney fields continue to under-rate quality Melbourne stayers on the up and this is the case again here.
Laidback Larry come sinto this off a huge 61kg as a favourite and is up 4.5kg today which looks very tough knowing he will be out the front trying to lead this from start to finish.. having never placed on slow or heavy.
The horse that stands out from the Victorian form and from my ratings is Self Sense. His last two wins in 3YO grade were over 2k and 2.4k which brings him into this well. Has won three in a row including on Heavy in a much easier race by 4 lengths.. but still won well on slow in harder company than this the next start with 60kg. He is a very good horse and will continue to progress. Had a nice let up of 4 weeks between runs and will be fresh. Barrier is actually ok and maps well.
Comments: Very happy to bet into this race!
Strategy: Self Sense E/W
Randwick Race 5
I want to take on Terravista at the shorts here today with no wet track form to back up the very short quote.
Bull Point let us down in the Autumn at the pointy end of the campaign when failing after a stall incident in the Group 1 and then got blocked for runs and ran kinda poorly on the very heavy track. Won’t be that heavy today and I map Bull Point to be further forward in running today which should suit.
The second horse I’m interested in here is Our Voodoo Prince. Yes, he is a 2000m+ horse, but his got an explosive final 400m which is all you need at Randwick to have every chance. Maps to have to do nothing and gets through the ground. Most importantly no weight on his back today either.
Strategy: Small bet on Bull Point and Our Voodoo Prince.
Randwick Race 6
I think i should have my two cents worth on this race. I think you have to go for the runners who are proven on the ground.
For mine, this rules out Hawkspur, Messene and even Dissident.
Sacred Falls is a wet tracker, no doubt. Ran some huge runs last prep and is every chance to be the winner here today. Best seen 1600m+ though.
Tiger Tees has shown his best at 1200m but can take the step up. Runs well on slow or heavy.
My Kingdom of Fife isn’t good enough this prep or at this distance.
Weary is a big unknown for me. Kept finding a few too good last prep when it counted and first up was good but didn’t blow me away. Will handle the ground.
Criterion has the biggest upside of all this lot on what was produced last prep… but the horse took a long time to get into showing those best runs. Will be very far back in running today also and i’m not sure you can afford to give horses like Tiger Tees or Weary 2-3 lengths.
Royal Descent is always an interesting runner. Goes ok first up, loves the track and loves it wet. Not her best distance though but always runs well. Needs further for mine.
Comments: As i said, very open race on form. I have a query on Tiger Tees fitness to last the 1400m on a Heavy track based on last start. Think the horse needs another run. Be playing around Weary and Sacred Falls if anything here.
Strategy: Sacred Falls on top from Weary.
Randwick Race 7
Three key chances in this race for me.
Diamond Drille got her FM-GP1 last prep at huge odds. Waterhouse knows how to train these Al Mahers.. go check her strike rate with this breeding, it’s her best combo. Drille’s best run was certainly the win on slow while the 6th on Heavy was brave, I don’t think she is as good on it. Goes well first up but weight is an issue.
Gypsy Diamond won very well on Heavy in a 3Y-GP3 the first week of the championships for us and then went up to FM-GP1, missed the start a little which could have cost the win for mine. Loves it wet and the wetter the better for her. Distance is suitable. Goes very well first up.
Lucia Valentina has the most upside of all the runners in this race for mine. Has won at distance previously and was an impressive winner on heavy last prep. Will be coming from a long way back but can win at this distance range and also will be let go early to make up the ground.
Comments: Not overly confident here but have Gypsy Diamond on top from Lucia Valentina
Strategy: Gypsy Diamond to win. Smaller bet Lucia Valentina.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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