Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley and Rosehill on Saturday 14 September 2013. Geez last week was tough for everyone. The most pain was with PDL going down in a close one. Commanding Jewel was the only shining light on a very dull day. At least we got a good price in the last. Onto MV where we have a very tough card. You rarely see me put up E/W bets but that is pretty much most of the card today. The good news is that it is hard to lose today with the promotions on offer around the bookies and exchanges. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 It Is Written
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 7 Alpha Proxima
Golden Rose Pick
Eurozone
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 3 Rowland
Lay of the Day
Moonee Valley Race 3 Picture Editor
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 10, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 7, 8, 9
Promotions
Betfair have it all on offer this weekend. Not only are they continuing their Best of Five promo giving you the best price of the TABs, SP or Betfair SP (First $1000 of Winnings paid at BO5), but they are also giving your money back on the Golden Rose if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd on all bets placed on their Best of Five product. If that wasn’t enough already, you can get a 50% higher payout on your Rosehill Quaddie placed through them.
Sportsbet and Centrebet are giving your money back up to $100 maximum if your horse runs 2nd in the Golden Rose. Sportsbet are also offering $5 for a maximum of $50 for Super Cool through their mobile site as a megabet (limited time this one.. may run out).
Available from 12pm, Betstar is giving you Double Fixed Odds on any runner in the Golden Rose with a Maximum bet of $50. If you are new to Betstar, be sure to enter the promotion/refer code 23703 when joining!
Find out more about Double Fixed Odds.
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
May’s Dream: Ran on well last start of last prep off a slow speed out front. Maps dead last which is never suited here.
Za Moulin Rouge: Very poor first up. Hard to back off that run.
Antarctic Missile: Couldn’t win a maiden!!!
Godiva Rock: Lost as $1.20 fav first up in a maiden which is a worry! Did run 3rd in Blue Diamond last prep but geez hard to see that improvement!
Imanana: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Longchamp Belle: Maiden only winner who hasn’t measured up.
Mount Zero: First two runs this prep been very disappointing. Need to find much more today.
So Bella Arella: Very solid last prep finishing it off well 2nd. Maps well enough to go close.
Solicit: Not the worst form but needs to find much more today.
Comment: Hard race to start the day. Form lines hard to match up.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Happy to stay out but if you were, So Bella Arella to win and May’s Dream next best.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Honey Steel’s Gold: Ended last prep winning very well stepping up in class big time. Up 4.5kg today down in class here but in a race I think is very hard. Rates well but the weight is the issue.
Divine Calling: Did oh so much wrong last start and was gone a long way out. This is a much easier race and he should be more settled. Barrier 10 the big issue.. but is the clear leader
Lannister: Previous runs in this grade have been poor. Last start in very easy Maiden company ate up the slow ground. Looks poorly weighted today.
Orion: Too poor first up to even consider today.
Ticket To Toorak: Unlucky last start but still would need to find a few lengths today to be with them at the finish. Does map well.
Benchi Pegasus: Maiden winner on Heavy. No thanks.
Le Mans: First up last start run was solid. Last start slow win in a maiden hard to judge. Will be going back from 9.
Trouble In Vegas: Not good enough on form.
Believe Me: Won’t measure up.
Celeritas: Average run first up. Should improve for the distance increase but not this much.
Quest for Peace: Tough barrier. Will go back. Prefer on wetter surface.. but hard to discount considering 4th in 2F-GP3 behind Guelph.
Comment: Average race. Some form lines seem very hard to measure up.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Happy to back Divine Calling in a win only bet here. That run behind Zoustar last prep was very solid and he is the only natural leader.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Motivado: Good second up record, good record at distance.. first try here. 1/1 from 4 at class. First up run at merit but up 6kg… hard to be overly confident touching this horse.
Gotta Take Care: Good win last start at course and distance. Up in class today and up 3.5kg. Never far away over this distance.
Anagold: Last two runs have been solid. Painfully close last start behind Desert Jeuney at Flemington. Maps poorly today to get stuck on the rails near the back of the field is the main issue, but there looks to be speed.
Streets Of Seattle: Last two starts were very poor. Had a smallish break and back at it. Weighted nicely today off 53.5kg but needs to show improvement. Will position 1 out 2 back most likely and be there at the finish.
Crafty Cruiser: Very disappointing run last start. Gives weight to Gotta Take Care today as well. Hard to see going close. Never won from 10 tries at track.
Picture Editor: Weighted poorly today if you ask me. Mapped to go forward and tempo will be on. I just couldn’t be near him.
Tanah Lot: Meets Gotta Take Care 3.5kg better off today which is a plus. Maps well today as long as jumps well. Sneaky chance at odds.
Rowland: Weighted to win today. Should turn the tables on horses such as Gotta Take Care with the weight system. Big chance and maps well enough. Hall either wins or loses it for you. He is that type of rider.
Caroun: Not in this class mate!
Red Eye Special: Not going well enough.
Comment: Don’t expect to see these heading to the cups.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Rowland is the stand out on the Each-Way. Maps well enough but more importantly is weighted well. Let’s just hope Hall gives it a good ride!
Moonee Valley Race 4
Atlantic Jewel: Simply wins.
Fibrillation: Better at the weights today compared to Bec Said by 2kg which should make up the 0.8L gap from last start. Barrier hurts but can certainly take 2nd.
Oasis Bloom: Natural leader. Wasn’t a bad run last start Better suited to this distance today and MV is 1/1 here. Big chance to win the favourite out market.
Oriental Ruby: Disappointing last start. Poorly weighted. 0 chance.
Bonne Nuit: Ran well enough last start but has been found out up in grade. Could place.
Ava’s Delight: Keeps going close. Weight doesn’t help today.
Bec Said No Credit: Big win last start. Will improve for that and should run even better today. Might get a sit outside the leader.
Keyarna Blue: Slowly away first up. Blocked many Times. Can forgive for run and could go close to 2nd.
Comment: Atlantic wins. Play the favourite out markets.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Oasis Bloom looks a good bet with Keyarna Blue a saver in the favourite out markets.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Moment of Change: He is the best horse in the race, there is no doubt, but will he get the run required ridden by Nolen? He seems to get more than most trapped on the rails without a run. Won 2 palced 2 from 4 first up… 1000m should suit.
General Truce: Ran very well last start at course and distance. Will be hitting the line well.
Freereturn: Does go well first up but last prep was by far his worst. 4 wins from 6 at track and 3 from 7 at distance. If back in best form can go well.
Snitzem: Goes well first up. Loves the track. Loves the distance. Will position forward from barrier 2 and looks a big chance.
Shafeeq: Showed some improvement this prep but lost two runs too poor.
Run Diego: Going well but at weights, not in this class.
Glamour Planet: Not up to this class.
Platelet: Never won first up but never missed a place. Never won at track from 3 starts. 2 wins from 11 at distance.. better over further it seems. Need a bit of luck but a big hcance.
Umgeton: Won’t meausre up at this level of race.
Kuroshio: Speedmaps to lead this up with a bit of luck off 52kg. Could go very close if produces best.
Comment: Much harder than odds suggest. Moment of Change at his best simply wins.. but that is uncertain to be produced today. Platelet maps poorly IMO also. Kuroshio could blow them away at the weights out front while Snitzem is the potential improver for mine.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 8, 10
Strategy: Snitzem E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6
Sangster: Never won at track or distance. Looking for further than this today.
Happy Trails: Ran well enough last start and does like this track. Wouldn’t discount going forward from barrier 3. Gets a strong run.
Fiorente: Slowly Away and blocked for runs last start at Caulfield. Extra 200m suits and from barrier 2 may get trapped the rail if doesn’t get a good position.. that being said, could simply just win this off last start run if jumps well.
Seville: Very poor firs tup. No thanks here.
Spacecraft: Not in this class.
Lidari: Very big win last start in easier company. Maps to push forwardish today and could get a nice spot. Probably looking for further and less weight/class?
Hornet’s Nest: Does have a win over Puissance De Lune from two preps back but this is much harder.
Super Cool: Has won at track previously. Very solid run lat start and should get a slightly further forward position today. Top chance.
Ajeeb: Missed start and spent a lot early to get the lead which telled at the finish when falling out of it. Extra distance a worry for line but is only pace in race.
Bass Strait: Good first up run but weighted out of this.
Desert Wizard: Progressive but this is too big a step up at weights.
Comment: Got this down to three runners in Fiorente, Super Cool and Ajeeb. I can see why people and bookies would take Super Cool on today, but he is a winning chance. Fiorente will go very close on last run wit a bit of luck whiel Ajeeb could steal it out the front on a strong rail.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 9
Strategy: Backing Ajeeb E/W with a smaller win bet on Fiorente.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Clear for Action: Finally got the run and win last start. Will be much further back today with many front runners in this race but will still be hitting the line hard. Up 4kg a concern.
Extra Zero: Not going to win at this distance it seems on previous form. Last few runs average only.
Alpha Proxima: Very strong form and has the speed to take the lead and go all the way today. Weighted nicely and no reason to oppose.
Verdant: Never won at this distance previously and is really looking for further. Still, nicely weighted today.
Mourinho: Looking for further to be a winner… but loves this track.
Lord Pyrus: Not in this.
High Esteem: Very very very strong form lines. Unlucky not to snatch the win last start. Will find it hard from barrier to get a good position today.
Tee Emar: Has won at this distance… but first up run didn’t tell us much.
Conduction: Won’t measure up here.
The Great Snowman: Very disappointing first up here last start. had every chance. Not in this class.
Lord Durante: Never measure dup to this class. Last run was solid but hard to see at weights.
Smarty Mac: Could run a place if lucky from barrier 2.
Fabriano: Gone close all of last 3 runs. Weighted to win today so don’t dismiss.
Cheviot Beach: Not a chance.
Underestimation: Previous runs too poor.
Comment: Quite a few chances here and looks to be a fast speed on out front… will depend who jumps best who gets the lead.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 10, 13
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Alpha Proxima gets over from barrier and will be very hard to run down. Happy to back E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Budriguez: Weighted harshly today off 61kg! Will lead up from barrier 5. Disappointing last start but expect better today off the slow ground.
Rekindled Interest: Never won at this distance and only once firs tup. Harsh weight.
Neeson: Big run last start behind Samaready. Maps very well today and extra 100m does help. Don’t dismiss.
Lord of Brazil: Never missed a place first up or at this distance and has won 3 placed 3 from 7 at class. Track stats are ok but not best. Maps poorly IMO. Needs luck today.
Yosei: Didn’t show much first up. Hard to have.
That’s The One: Went back last start and didn’t have enough to run on. Down in weight today significantly and should position further forward. A chance.
Elite Elle: Ran on very well last start at MV to win well. Barrier 13 an issue but maps forward. Down 4.5kg today.. very hard to beat.
Lady Melksham: 2nd up goes well at track and distance. Down 3kg today and should be better for previous run. Go close.
It Is Written: Big run last start behind Samaready. Down 2kg today and loves this track. Maps perfectly.
Future SOlution: Not a fan of him here.
Le Bonsir: Won a poor race first up and weighted poorly for this IMO.
Amah Rock: Strong enough run behind Thy last start but Thy didn’t reproduce next start. Hard to rate.
Langridge Street; Never won at distance or track. Never won first up. Can run nicely but needs further.
Rusambo: Good first up but poorly weighted against better horses today.
Comment: Very tough race but at the prices It Is Written is the get on and Elite Elle has to be backed also. Both map very well.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: It Is Written on the each-way while a nicely sized win bet on Elite Elle also.
Rosehill Race 5
There seems to be four key dangers for mine in this race to the favourite.
All credit to Rain Affair last start. Went a blistering speed out front but just couldn’t hold out two better horses. Most likely runs slightly slower sectionals out front and goes even closer today.
Solzhenitsyn stands out from last prep ending in going close in a Group 1. Will be close enough and maps very well. big chance.
Riva De Lago is a horse you know I have a big opinion of. A little disappointing first up but should be better for the run and can run well today and improve. Important to realise the horse loves a fast speed.
Taxmeifyoucan is the one who interests me the most. Last start win at distance was won in a fairly similar speed to what Rain Affair will put on and he is down 3.5kg today. Maps very well from barrier 5 as well.
Finally, Boban is considered the blow out chance off 53kg. I think he is a good chance but others appeal more for me.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Taxmeifyoucan outright and savering Rain Affair.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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