Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley. Just some ‘quick’ form for tonight. There is a full week and a half of quality races to come so don’t go crazy tonight. Form for Derby Day should be up around midnight on Friday. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 Use The Lot
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 8 Magic Tigress
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Not the best race you have ever seen but there is a clear standout in the form lines.
Hannaford comes into this having progressed through the grades this prep before last start running in a different position to normal and finishing off very well. Back down in class today and looks well weighted. Most importantly, maps to sit 1 out 1 back from barrier 4 and will be very hard to beat.
Comments: The price looks right. Not sure it will be available at the jump either.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Hannaford to win
Moonee Valley Race 4
A couple of strong runners in this race, but there is one who just stands out who we have backed a few times this prep (which has been going for months and months).
Brayroan looks to have a fair bit of improvement to come but may want it a little more wet. Hot Power has won 3 in a row.. but is he good enough to beat these? Green Roller hasn’t measured up the last two starts while Bamboo Harvester is weighted well but this is another class.
Use The Lot is the clear stand out here. Three runs back won a 3YO race over similar distance and from barrier 3 is the clear leader and with a good ride will be VERY hard to pass… especially if the rail is going well.
Comments: Gundogdu knows what speed he should be ridding this guy to win. If ridden correctly, can’t see him missing a place.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Use The Lot E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Most runners in this are coming off form around Hard Romp and Stick On. There seems to be ALOT of early speed. I actually couldn’t back anything here at the prices and really don’t want to give a tip in this one. Form isn’t good enough to match them up here.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Hold your money.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Two runners that stand out for mine with one at double figures.
La Pieta is first up after some strong runs up in Sydney. Looks well weighted and if improved from last start, can go close.
Sensational Report is the runner of interest. The track CAN’T be good for us to have a go at her. Two runs this prep three and four back at course on DEAD tracks were great. This is a HUGE step back in class today and if she gets the track that she wants, then she is a massive chance to place at big odds.. and even win if they are swooping out wide or she finds a lucky run.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: If Dead, small place bet on Sensational Report and even smaller win. If Good, Small win bet on La Pieta
Moonee Valley Race 7
There is ALOT of early speed, especially out wide in this race. Just the one horse stands out here.
Providential ran very well here last start just getting done on the line by a strong horse in Electric Fusion. Weighted equally today and barrier 7 means he should get a good enough position.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Providential E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Three horses who stand out here for me.
The first is Magic Tigress. Jamie Kah has come over for two rides only and most importantly this looks the winner. She has a 1 win 2 places from 4 starts over here the last 12 months and this is her first trip over this season. She isn’t flying over to have a horse not compete then fly back for the Adelaide races in the morning!
The other two are Stella Lante and Princess Rock. Both equally weighted on last start at course and distance when 0.5L off each other. Princess Rock is a non winner. 1 win 9 places from 15.. just continues to go close without hearting it out. I can’t see her beating home Stella Lante again.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing Magic Tigress to win and smaller bet on Stella Lante
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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