Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on Friday 13 December 2013. The rail goes out a further 2m today so I am pretty unsure how it will play. I’m going to suggest runners out the front won’t have an easy time today compared to normal, but you never know. Watch to see how it plays early! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Moonee Valley Best Bet
Race 6 Chow Meow
Moonee Valley Next Best
Race 5 Prettyhappyaboutit
Moonee Valley Best Value
Race 7 Mr Sommerville
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 9, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Moonee Valley Race 1
Early markets are not up and nothing actually stands out for me in this race so to speak. If you were to ask me for a tip, it would be El Mandoma.
Moonee Valley Race 2
The bottom two in this race stand out for me.
Love The Rock ran well enough last start at Bendigo when being hampered at the start. Barrier 3 today, expect her to get a ride for luck and to go well.
Sure You Can is being pushed up in distance today and with breeding looks to come into this very well. The last start run in MUCH harder company last start was solid and was beaten by a horse who will be going around favourite next start in Kiss Me Ketut (was a $3 fav Wednesday b4 scratched). The barrier IS an issue, but looks weighted to win with a solid ride.
Comments: Is Kav going to be in the yard? Money goes on Love The Rock if Kav is helping Rodd hop on the horse! Sure You Can is the obvious top pick here
Confidence 70%
Strategy: No idea on the prices yet but I suspect we will get a good enough price to back both.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Countersnip: Fair credit to this horse winning very well last start at Caulfield. Down 1.5kg today down in class at the valley from a good barrier, he will be sitting forward enough and is the one to beat on that run.
Manhattan Rock: Good 3L maiden victory from start to finish and will be leading this one up. Time wasn’t super fast but was solid enough. Looks progressive.
Magnesia: Super disappointing last start when went back. Will position further forward from barrier 1 today you would expect.
Reggio: Start to finish 1300m winner in a very smart time on dead. Weighted better today but meets Magnesia poorly at weights.
Seconed Bullet: Jumped poorly and settled at the back first up over 1300m. The speed was well and truly on in a VERY fast run 1300m and he couldn’t get the job done. Not for mine.
Speed Gonzales: Ran on well enough last start behind Girl In Flight. Barrier suits and could push further forward if wanted today. A chance.
Jessy Belle: Very well backed here last start at course and distance. Down 2.5kg today and up in class only a little. Barrier suits and will get a much better run today.
Comments: Two key chances for mine.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Countersnip on top from Jessy Belle
Moonee Valley Race 4
Kinselmac Manner: Will sit further forward today than last start. Up in distance is unknown but suggest suits. Ignore last start on the heavy and will be suited today. Big chance with the claim.
Jileks Spur: Disappointed last start at course and distance. Up 2.5kg and up in class today. Not sure what to make of him today.
Justthewayyouare: Purchased from France he won well last start in easier company. Looks a progressive type and should be suited to the distance.
Grand Sunday: Just ignore last start on heavy and look to win two back. Previous runs before that were a little concerning though.
Shadowofexcellence: Step up in distance today should suit from a strong enough barrier, but last two runs hasn’t shown us enough.
Handsome: Last three runs in ismilar class haven’t been good enough to win today for mine.
The Tinker’s Son: Progressive type who has gone close all but one start in his career. Looks suited today by the extra distance and barrier suits. Big chance.
McNulty: He certainly keeps disappointing us… but he was a brave 2nd last start. Barrier certainly hurts to get a good position and they probably do take him back to last again today which counts him out for mine if they do that.
YukaJoy: Will push forward again today. Up 2kg looks harsh to me and I can’t see her staying on well enough even with Gauci back on.
Finley Harper: He ran well last start and two back over similar distances.. up 2kg today but from barrier 6 could try push forward for the lead again. Can run well.
Callmedan: Two back run was ok but is he in this class? I’m not sure.
Lifetime: The two back run was good but even down 4kg today, can’t see her winning.
Comments: Could be a bit of speed in this out the front.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Justthewayyouare on top from Kinselmac Manner
Moonee Valley Race 5
Prettyhappyaboutit: You had to ignore first up and she certainly didn’t disappoint last start winning at course and distance. Up 3kg after claims, but the horses in this do look easier class. The issue is barrier 11!
April Rose: A front runner, she is hard to judge first up. Has never lost firs tup which is nice, but up to 56.5kg today when last three runs last prep were all 51kg. I would say her best work has been on Heavy to slow, but she is undefeated on good also. If comes back at best, can go close.
Serene Tanie: Very very very poor first up. Looking for further IMO.
Devils Melody: The back marker with a jock I prefer out the front. Does have a good first up record and will be running on.
Minnymoo: 2 from 2 first up and runs well first up. 52kg and looks suited.
Raise a Dream: Unsure what to make of her from last prep. Suspect outclassed.
Manor Lady: Never won 2nd up… can run fast times but first up didn’t give you the confidence. Is weighted well.
Lago Girl: Huge step up in class today. Can’t see it.
Sassy Tycoon: Big maiden win last start at Cranny. Won’t get such an easy run today.
Lavender Bay: Hard to see her measuring up on last two runs.
Comments: Prettyhappyaboutit is the best horse in this race. It’s clear cut. If she had drawn a barrier 3-7, would be under $2. The barrier is the only issue. April Rose maps to lead and will be the one to run down.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 9
Strategy: Prettyhappyaboutit on top. Saver on April Rose.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Little Bro: First up run at Bendigo was very strong taking a sit. Barrier 2, he will either lead or take a sit on the rail behind the leader. Weight is an issue?
Praesentia: Barrier today means he may get further back than last start. Ran well first up but hard to see here if you ask me.
Renegade Arrow: Never won first up. Was a strong winner two preps back and ran ok last prep but hard to see here first up.
Chilly Reception: Maps well from barrier 6 today. Last two runs has jumped well or just gone too far back. Look to run at Bendigo over 1300m four back and on that run he goes close. Weighted ok today and Beriman can front ride at this track well.
Chow Meow: Blew the field away last start at Cranny in a dominant display. Maps to get a little further back today but is going great guns. The one to beat.
Crookhaven: Is Kav on track? Is he in the yard? watch. The horse progressed well two preps back but failed the only run last prep. This is a huge step back in class today. The barrier makes it hard.
Holy Heart: Push forward from outside barrier. Will struggle to get in. 57kg after claims.. I can’t have.
Great Game: Strong runs last prep. Barrier means will be further back than normal but should run well.
Invincible Lady: Not sure what to make of her. hasn’t won in this grade all prep and only win was on heavy. Can run well but will find one too good I say.
Spirit Cent: Had every chance last start to win and got run down off a very slow pace out front. Won’t get that today.
Flight to the Line: Easy kill first up at Mornington. Ran a strong 2nd in 3YO last prep. Weighted well but barrier makes it hard today.
Frankly Fast: Showed progression last start at course but has never placed over 1200m previously. Weighted ok!
Misscatelli: Hard to see the progression even with 200 days off. Not for me.
Ladramahs: Hasn’t won in a long time and best runs last prep were on wet tracks.
Comments: A number of ‘chances’ that could be included into the quaddie, but one runner stands out here and looks very progressive.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 11
Strategy: Chow Meow to win
Moonee Valley Race 7
Tube: Step back in class today and the horse does run well at this track. Back to a distance the horse likes. Not the worst runner.
Aashiq: Probably ignore last start and even the run before that with pace out the front only fair. Before that ran home well at Sale. Weighted ok and barrier means he could sit further forward today. A chance.
Beau Brommell: Won last start but was there any talent in that race? I suggest there wasn’t. Hard to have in this class today.
Remagen Bridge: Big run start to finish last start and down 1.5kg today. Maps well if gets in.
Tilla Bell Rings: Blocked for runs last start at MV but is poorly weighted today.
Mr Sommerville: Ran well the last two starts beating Magnapal and then 2nd to Tombola. Both those horses than VERY well at Caulfield on Wednesday.
The Unexpected: Easy win two back and then last start led start to finish at Cranny on a biased rail. Up in class today but can run ok.
Inanoff: NZ runner who was blocked for runs last start at MV. Maps to push further forward today and have every chance. Has won 2nd up.
Relentless: Poor barrier today. Giving up weight to a few from last start and didn’t beat them home. Can’t have.
Roxanne of Sydney: Is she city class? I need to see her run well first before even including in Quaddie. Looking for further and better on wet.
Twin Spires: Continues to run well this prep but this is another step up in class. Barrier hurts. Finds a few too good.
Chilli Beach: Another Kav runner. Good barrier today. maps well. Can get a good run. If jockey is claiming then big chance (currently not named).
Comments: Tough race with many you could put in the Quaddie.. Two stand outs.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 9, 14
Strategy: Mr Sommerville on top from Remagen Bridge
Moonee Valley Race 8
Crucial: Ran well first up without threatening to win. Up 1kg after claims and maps well from barrier 3. Never won 2nd up or at this distance previously… but always runs well.
Blanket Bay: Ignore last start when significantly up in class and further back than expected. Did actually run on ok either way. Down in class and at a distance that suits, she comes into this very well. She maps ok as long as Newitt can get her in. One to beat on recent runs.
Family Portrait: Hard horse to place. Runs this prep only fair. I can’t have at the weights.
Flying Hostess: Done in by a better horse and ride last start. Almost similar weight today down in class. Maps to be ridden for luck but should get it.
To Be Honest: Had every chance last start at course and similar distance when ridden out the front. Will be ridden for a sit today where better suited.
Oasis Rose: Maps poorly today from inside barrier. Hard to have off last few runs.
Kimiko: Push forward today and will be hard to get past on last few runs. Weighted nicely.
Pass the Post: Slowly improving throughout prep but much harder race today.
Baqaat: Goes well 2nd up and firs tup run was solid without winning. This is much harder.
Chiquada: Back at her best and has been ridden differently the past two runs. Barrier hurts, but is weighted to win.
Usurper: Actually ran well first up at Bendigo. Won’t get as far back today and can go close if at best.
Comments: Tough way to finish the meeting. There are a few at odds I think can really go close here, but two clear favourites I think deserve to be favourites also. Not sure how I will play this until I see how the track is playing.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 11, 12
Strategy: Blanket Bay on top from Flying Hostess.
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