Welcome to The Profits form guide for Friday night at Moonee Valley. Christmas is almost upon us and this is the final pre-Christmas meeting at MV which means we still get nice prize money and nice fields on offer. The rail remains in the same position today so the rail to 1-2 metres out should still be the place to be. Last week at MV didn’t go to plan, so let’s see how we can go this week! Our two best bets were scratched this morning which throws a spanner in the works. As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Moonee Valley Best Bet
Race 3 West Africa
Moonee Valley Next Best
Race 8 Happy Highway
Moonee Valley Best Value
Race 5 Yellow Jersey
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 9, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 8, 9, 10, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 7, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Chapkin: Showed a little last prep but not enough to suggest massive improvement. Money should tell.
Domini Servatus: Up in distance second up. Ran well enough last start and will get a nice run from Barrier 5.
Don’t Kel Yamemma: Showed some form this prep but for mine the last start run lacked a fair bit and didn’t get close enough two back.
Existence: Missed start last start. Finished off well enough. 21 starts and no wins. Can’t have.
Lucky Edge: Start to finish ran well last start at Geelong. Barrier 3 and maps well. A chance.
Rubens: Hard horse to know how its going. Had 5 chances in the past and has shown some ok displays. If the money comes, worth noting.
Second Bullet: Jumped poorly and went back first up. Ran home well off a strong tempo. Barrier 1 today and maps to win.
Synthetic: Blocked blocked blocked blocked and blocked last start. Rider got a huge ban for the ride as well. Dunn goes on… the one to beat IMO but needs to slot in well enough.
Bounce Trap Goal: Hard to see the progression on last start run.
Poet’s Dream: Can ‘ok’ but didn’t show enough last start. I couldn’t have.
Comments: Two standouts.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Synthetic on top from Second Bullet.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Mother Grace: Good win first up and then went very close last start when beaten 0.1L. Every chance again today. Barrier only issue.
Charnzel: Went close two back behind Chow Meow and then last start close again. Up to 1200m shoul suit and down to 54.5kg after claims which looks strong. Can run well.
Chater Gardens: Impressive enough winner first up in easy maiden but came back fairly poor after a long spell. Up in weight, down in class, barrier 1. Will try lead.
Hayite: Won an ok maiden first up. Looks to be progressive. Can run well.
Jennyfromtheblock: Had every chance first up but just wasn’t fit enough. Can run well enough today but has to find lengths.
Katherine Gorge: Easy kill first up in a 6 horse race that didn’t appear strong. Barrier 3 and will push forward.
Miss Promiscuity: Missed start and finish last at Caulfield. Hard to see turn around on last start effort.
Miss Procyon: Last start run was ‘not bad’. Weighted ok but not sure she is of this quality.
More Than Ameira: Maiden winner who has been pushed into 2YO and 3YO class the other 4 times with 11L+ loses. Not sure what to make of her.
Comments: Mother Grace is the stand out on last start run.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Mother Grace E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Charles In Charge: Back in class today. Weighted well enough as well. Barrier 3 suits. Can push forward if they want to. Can’t be dismissed.
Jade’s Boy: A very progressive type who ran very well last prep and found his best on wetter tracks. Probably needs further.
Bold Eavey: Blocked for runs last start. Down in weight today but will be a long way back.
Romancingthestone: Probably should have won last start when behind Lord of the Sky. Back in class but the Fav was going to be Fav in that race at Caulfield. Down to 54.5kg today from barrier 1… will certainly need luck but that can be an advantage.
West Africa: Huge win first up at Kilmore. The one to beat. No question about it and good barrier.
Neat Feat: Finally broke through first up and won well. Was an easier race than this.
Lavender Bay: Showed ‘enough’ last prep but geez this is a step up.. but Oliver booked.. you have to show some respect.
Lavenham: First two runs were solid. This is MUCH harder.
Zeffiretta: Ran on well last start at Cranbourne fresh. Can run on well again but this is a big step up.
Maroon Bay: Hard to see the win here.
Comments: West Africa, Romancingthestone and Charles in Charge are the three main hopes here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: West Africa to win. Romancingthestone to win could also be a play if you like value. Will be ridden for luck.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Sindarin: A significant step back in class today from Listed and Open company. Goes well at this distance and comes in weighted ok. Does need to improve.
Aurora Lights: Didn’t show me much over the 1400m first up but is expected to run well today at the distance if you take a line through the NZ form. Needs to have improved significantly though if you ask me! Weighted well.
Reckless Assassin: Gutsy win last start from start to finish at course and distance. Can repeat again.
Baluch: Disappointed us last start when had every chance but couldn’t win. 1kg better off today but needs more to go her way.
Chateau Latour: Weighted much better today, but needs more than weight on her side to go close today.
Joplin: Ran 2nd in a only fair race last start. Not sure I can see the progression to this class.
Queen of Eight: Poorly weighted on last start win against Joplin.
Tunsia Traveller: Very big win last start at MV. The space between 2nd and 3rd was huge. Can improve again. Rates well if you ask me.
Zinone: Continues to run well but this is a big step up.
Comments: A rough pre-quaddie race. Reckless Assassin looks the one to beat while Tunisia Traveller is progressive and Aurora Lights is the Group placed horse to watch. Sindarin down from NSW can’t be dismissed either.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Reckless Assassin on top from Tunisia Traveller.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Magnus Reign: Course and distance winner four runs back. Has continued to run well since. 60kg the only issue considering where he will get in run from barrier.
Jonnydramaa: Will be getting back in run. Never placed at track but has won first up previously. Better on wet tracks if you ask me but could surprise.
Cahier: Progressed well last prep. Should run well today but not sure the best in this race.
Legcut: Took a sit last start and pounced late. Great ride. Barrier hurts today but surely they try push forward again. Top chance.
My Option: Good win two back then very disappointing last start. Not sure will measure up.
Oberver: Big run two back and then super poor last start, ran at a faster pace though to be fair. Weighted poorly against Legcut and there is a lot of early speed.
Yellow Jersey: Darwin winner of 1000m races and ran well last start over 1100m. Down 4kg today and is a very sneaky chance here from a good barrier.
Lamingtons: Goes well at this track. Weighted to go close. Barrier suits.
She’s Ellie: Hard one to catch. Last start at course and distance ran a close 2nd. Weighted nicely if back to best but didn’t show that last prep.
Beauty Cash: Very disappointing last start at course when was made to lead. Will take a sit from 1 and be ridden for luck. Not out of it.
Tabasco Force: Improved and ran on well last start at course and distance. Weighted nicely again today.
Shot of Siena: Better off on wet tracks off last prep form. hard to see winning this!
Stars in the Sky: Last start was at course and distance last year. Done nothing since. Been spelling. I don’t see it.
Comments: I won’t lie, I haven’t been doing too well on these races all series apart from getting Legcut home. This one looks tough again.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13
Strategy: Yellow Jersey looks over the odds E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Now and Zen: Missed start but disappointing in harder company last start. Up to a distance that suits but hasn’t won since 2012.
Beer Garden: Never placed at track. Just going around for the run again.
Pins of Pele: Placed in 3YO-GP3 company over 2000m last prep. Last two runs have been solid and up to suitable distance today. Can run well.
Bernie of Babylon: Last few runs this prep have been solid but this is a big step up in class again.
Lionpower: Got the win last start in easier company. Only down 1kg today. Barrier does help but suspect finds a few too good.
Rickelva: Blocked fo rruns but still got home well in easier company. Barrier does mean will get far back.
Royal Mephisto: Close 2nd to Jetconi in harer company. Finding best now.
Settlers Way: Had every chance last start at course and distance but was outclassed by Scelto. Not sure how to mark up that race form.
Gold to Go: Progressive type who went for a sit last start and paid the price. Should run much better today out the front.
Comments: Pins of Pele stands out here while the bottom 3 look the ones to beat.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Pins of Pele on top
Moonee Valley Race 7
Valid Contract: Just ignore first up run. Will run very well today from barrier 3.
Five All: Been placed perfectly the last five runs. Won well last start off a slowish tempo. Don’t dismiss.
Miss Zoom: Ran well enough first up. Down 2kg today. Barrier hurts alot.
Novaspirit: Ran on from mid to back of the field last start but didn’t get close. Poorly weightd today.
Rayhan: Win last start at 1400m but back down 200m today is VERY strange. Hard to have on this alone and up in weight big time.
Beach Front: Strong win first up this prep. Horse has some talent. Can go well.
Grand Zee: Ran on well first up behind Espirits Choice who has some stron form lines. Barrier means will be ridden for luck. Can win.
Bian Divine: Not sure what to make of her. Times were strong last prep. Can’t dismiss here.
Duet: Got the run and won last start. Barrier means will be far back again today. Not sure she can do it twice in a row at this weight.
Unique Storm: Ran well last start without impressing. Maps a little better today.
Podsnap: Not sure this horse is good enough to win today on recent runs.
Petrova: Strong win last start. Not sure can beat home Sweet Agi at weights though.
Comments: Best bet for this race was scratched.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 8, 9, 10, 15
Strategy: Valid Contract on top from Petrova
Moonee Valley Race 8
Genghis: Ignore last start. Ran ok previous two runs but at weights up in this class i can’t see the win.
Triple tease: Blocked for runs last start so probably just an ignore run. Weighted ok down in class again today from a better barrier. Can sit closer.
Tronador: Strong enough horse who has been safely held the last two attempts. At weight, I suspect they hold him well enough again today. .
Alfiler: Won two in a row moving through the grades. Got away with murder out front last start. Can run fast or slow.
Bernicatti: First up this prep won a strongly contested maiden. Barrier 7 and will be going forward. Looks the one to beat here.
Bit of a Chiller: Won a fairly easy maiden convincingly first up. Previous prep didn’t show me enough to back here… but if the money comes and you don’t have in Quaddie and are alive, might be worth having a small go on.
Dashiell: Good win two back at Cranbourne and then last start ran on well without threatening on the Slow. Will be far back from the barrier.
Happy Highway: Miss started and then still finish off well first up. Extra distance certainly suits today. Maps well enough. One of top chances here.
She’s Precious: 2L and then 7L winner the last two runs. Down to 54kg. Hard to miss this runner today.
Inflection: Finally got her maiden. Not sure progressive enough to continue it here and Oliver gets off.
Grey Gown: Ignore last start when slowly away and still ran well. Can run well today. I suspect finds a few too good but don’t expect to be far off.
Prie Dieu: Looks outclassed on last three runs in this similar type of company.
Flinders Cat: Hard to have here today.
Lunar Nova: Doesn’t come into this very well.
Comments: Two standouts.
Confidence 75%
Quaddle Leg Four: 3, 7, 10, 11
Strategy: Happy Highway from Bernicatti
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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