Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley on Friday 27 September 2013. It is great to be back at the night races on a Friday and while it is a busy weekend, it is hard to resist heading on down and I will be on course. No doubt the races are tough tonight with the fields.. but the form has been proven over the last few months so you now know who to back and who to lay. It has been a tough month up until everything clicked last weekend with Catkins the Next Best bet getting up at $5s and then Mr O’Ceirin not only winning as Best Bet at 9s, but also confirming the $151-1 posted up for Caulfield Cup before he failed at this track.. but then went on to show what we have liked. Sticking our horses like this has been a proven way to success for me. Happy Trails is a key example from last year. While the other didn’t measure up in the Cox Plate, they went a step back and landed a big one after a massive prep.
Stay tuned to twitter and we will be covering all the weekend don’t you worry about that! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Day Procedure
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 4 I Love It
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 3 Alpha Proxima
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Churchill Dancer: Maps midfieldish. Hard to see going close off last two starts really.
Regimental Pride: Maps out the back. Not done much all prep and can’t see that changing.
Clevadude: Last two starts have been bad.. Last start to be fair missed start and never in it. Outside barrier. No thanks!
I Am Titanium: Disappointingly week last start to the line. Couldn’t have today even though down 200m.
Consorting: Blocked for runs and still won first up this prep in a fairly easy race. Maps ok.
Under The Louvre: Ignore final run of last prep and look to previous two. Will be out the back though is the main issue. Weighted very well.
Hucklebuck: Won an only fairly run race over in Adelaide. Going forward from barrier 2. Don’t discount.
Nite Rocker: Hard horse to rate today. Needs to jump well from outside and suspect the speed will be on.
Washington Square: Runs last prep were strong enough to go close here and first up while only just winning, did get there and is much better weighted today. Barrier only issue.
Mio Did: Hard to see him winning here today on previous two runs.
Baker Boy: Maiden only winner and didn’t measure up in easier company.
Lion of Belfort: Weighted poorly after runs behind Washington last start.
Red Samurai: Hard to see the turn around in form from last start.
Lucky Striker: Not good enough to win maidens!
Comments: Hard race to start the day. Low confidence.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Under The Louvre is weighted to win but has to pass a wall of horses while Washington Square has huge upside.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Koonoomoo: Better a few runs into prep but has won first up and placed 3 times second up. Won twice at track and perfect distance. 60kg looks harsh today all things considered though. Barrier hurts.
Aerobatics: Will get a sit about 3-4 back on the outside and have every chance to win today. Weighted well enough and down to a track she has won on previously.
You’re So Good: First two runs this prep very disappointing. Couldn’t have.
Vibrant Rouge: Very good horse constantly going close without winning. 1/1 at track and goes well first up. Better jockey gets the ride today. Tough race though!
Red Fez: Ran well enough first up this prep. Up to 1200m today is better suited. Issue is outside barrier.
Sensational Report: Very good run last start at course, distance and class. Could go close today if repeats.
Formidable: Maps very well today but last few runs haven’t been good enough for this.
Angels Beach: Maps like a dream today. Gets an easy run outside of You’re So Good and off 55kg will be very hard to get past.
Miss Softhands: Very strong run last start to finish the prep. Hasn’t been seen since end of last year is a concern. Maps well enough.
Easy To Look At: Very poor this prep. Couldn’t have.
Princess Mossman: Not good enough for this on last prep.
Unruly Princess: Not in this.
Comments: I can’t see there being much pace on out front which will suit those closer to the lead.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Angels Beach to win
Moonee Valley Race 3
Lord of Brazil: Hasn’t returned at best it seems.. still a few lengths behind best. May need an extra run or two to find best this prep. Too far back.
Under The Eiffel: Ran on well enough last start with the swoopers catching the front runners. Never won at track.. probably further back today than wanted.
Bianmick: Looking for further than this on last few runs.
Hawks Bay: Average form lines at best recently but did go well off a slow track. Hard to see.
Cosmic Causeway: Best form lines are on dead including 3 of last 4. First up went very well and went close swooping. Can go very close today.
Spacecraft: Finds best on a good track and won’t get that today. Outside barrier means he will struggle to get a good spot as well… but will certainly run well if backs off last start.
Sertorius: First up ran well behind Speediness. Should get a spot about midfield and is 1/1 at track. Up to 1500m today suits as well. Go close.
Blackie: Won last prep at course and similar distance. Ran ok last start and should be peaking. Probably too far back though.
Alpha Proxima: Very unlucky last start when had to work very hard to get to the front and just died late on a track that had really no bias. Still finished within 2 lengths and down 2kg today speedmaps to get out the front today without too much effort. The one to beat.
Lord Pyrus: Weighted poorly off recent starts. No thanks.
Lord Wimble: Horrible first up and hard to see measuring up.
Starkiato: Going out the back. Won last two starts in easier company on slow very well. Poorly weighted.
Backbone: Never won first up and never won at track. Probably a better horse over further.
New York: Very poor run first up. Can’t have here.
Now You Know: A hard horse to get a hold of. Weighted very well here today and goes best at this distance. Better on a good track is the massive issue for mine. Can lead and go close if at best.
Comments: A few runners in this with loads of upside. Alpha Proxima remains in our blackbook and as long as he jumps well, will be in this with a big chance. If the speed is on out the front, Cosmic Causeway will be in the perfect spot and last start was strong enough to win with only slight improvement.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Very happy to be on Alpha Proxima with a nice bet E/W and a strong win bet on Cosmic Causeway as well.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Miracles of Life: Ignore last start. Overraced off a speed set out front that didn’t suit. Divine Calling bolted in next start as well who was the one out front who finished dead last. Should be able to take a sit and have every chance today. Big chance. Weighted well.
Ruud Awakening: Wasn’t suited by the track at Flemington. Could run much better today.
Metastasio: Ran very well last start and previous two starts to that. Keeps on improving.
Thump: Last two starts have been very strong. Never shown anything off of good ground though is an issue. Maps to need luck.
Fare Well: Weighted poorly against Thump today but goes well on surface.
Tango’s Daughter: The wetter the better for this runner… injured during first prep but won well in maiden class first up and then beat home Miracle To Me and another runner by close to 4L on heavy.. Maps ok and if as good as seems.. could go close.
Go Again: Ran on well first up this prep but didn’t show enough for mine here today.
Longchamp Belle: Handles any surface. Went very close at course and distance last start but was just beaten on the line. Maps to go close
Cosmic Endeavour: Won a maiden very well then ran 4th at stakes level (5L off) setting an absolutely crazy speed out front. Hard to judge but should go close.
Kiss Me Ketut: Can’t see measuring up.
I Love It: Hard to match up. Sectionals were SENSATIONAL first up… can run over the top of these!
Comments: A few classy runners in this race. The pace out the front may make or break this and the Waterhouse runner may set a crazy tempo like last start. I am hoping for that.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Big E/W bet on I Love It and a win bet on Miracles of Life
Moonee Valley Race 5
Vatican: 1 win from 6 first up.. 1 win from 5 at track and 1 win from 3 at istance. Did win here last prep at course and distance beating home some average horses. Did win a race after that and then went very close here behind King Cotton. Weighted POORLY today compared to KC.
King Cotton: 2 wins from 6 first up including course and distance win last prep. Weighted absolutely amazingly today off 53.5kg and will take a sit behind Day Procedure which looks the PERFECT spot. Massive chance.
Day Procedure: You know we love him and we love it when Jackie rides him. Last start at course and similar distance jumped very well, got the front from the outside and was never in doubt. Jackie knows how to make him jump and won’t give up the lead. The one to beat at the weights.
Eight Bills: Goes well first up but last prep last 6 runs didn’t get better than 6th. Never won at track and maps poorly.
Fab Fevola: Couldn’t get the better of King Cotton from two starts here last prep and is weighted worse off as well. Most likely sits outside Day Procedure and has to cover extra ground. Still a chance.
Felidea: Last two runs were average at best. Showed more over 1600m at Flemington last prep but was strong first up at Bendigo off a fast pace over 1100. This should just be too short.
Shafeeq: Didn’t show enough to win this today on first up run. Is much better weighted though is only plus…
Hot Spin: Hasn’t done anything since early 2012…
Such Hope: Won a good race at Caulfield last prep but didn’t win much before or after. Never won first up but off 52kg today gets into your quaddie.
Glenmaura: Prefers it a bit winner and over further…
Holder Sunset: 3rd behind a classy Vain Queen last start. Outside barrier makes this very hard.
Show’em Earnest: Couldn’t place at Donald…
Slewsay: Last two runs been much better than normal.. but wants it wet and less classy.
Comments: A tough front runner battle with a few well placed. Only issue could be the ground. If we get any worse than Slow 6… confidence is reduced.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 9
Strategy: Backing Day Procedure with a BIG win bet and a smaller win bet on King Cotton. Also betting the Quinella.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Shamus Award: Maiden. Maps perfect to get a nice sit 2 or 3 back on the outside. Run here two back was strong.
Divine Calling: Sat, watched, won easy last start. Barrier 12 hurts today but should be able to push forward and either take the lead or sit outside the leader. Down 2kg as well. Go close.
Honey’s Steel’s Gold: Had every chance last start behind Divine Calling and didn’t prove good enough. Not for me.
San Diego: Overraced first up this prep when a strong 3rd behind Long John. Will probably be 2 or 3 back the rails and have every chance from that position with a bit of luck.
The Bowler: Very poor first up. Up to 1600m helps but just hasn’t got the win in this class previously.
Late Charge: Didn’t show me enough last start to suggest will be suited by track or track condition… and will be out the back.
Polanski: First up this prep ran well enough from the back but needs to find MUCH more than that here today.
Cluster: Good enough run last start in the Rose and previous runs were strong also… but will he be suited up in distance? I’m not sure.
Countryman: Maiden winner. Come on now?
Crime Fighter: Maiden winner….
Last Sight: Poor maiden winner…
Bring Something: Couldn’t win a maiden…
Comments: Tough race on paper. Quite a few chances. Not the best betting race of the day unless speed bias appears.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 8
Strategy: Divine Calling to win with a smaller bet on San Diego
Moonee Valley Race 7
Mr Moet: Won 7 from 11 at distance.. Heavily back in class today and off the same weight…. surely has to pass a wall of horses but is certainly the best going around.
Lightinthenite: First up run was ok but that race hasn’t worked out to be the best form lines just yet. James McDonald booked is a big negative but is down 4kg today which is massive. Maps very well today.
Oasis Bloom: 2.5L behind Atlantic Jewel last start at Moonee Valley and is down 3kg today. Was a very good run and maps to get a sneaky lead. Could win this well.
Talent Show: Last two runs have been too poor to touch here.
Gris Caro: Won a much easier Listed race over the border. Maps to get a beautiful run today and could be a surprise packet. Has form 2.3L behind Lidari when over in France.
Extra Zero: Ran well enough last start from the back.. blocked for a run.. down 4kg today.
Zabisco: First two runs not good enough for this.
Mourinho: Ran nicely last start.. barrier 13 makes it hard to win this today and improve enough.
The Great SNowman: Good win last start by 1.5L and outside barrier does hurt as Oasis Bloom may take the rail. Could still go close.
Hornet’s Nest: Did a lot wrong first up slowly away, ran wide and laid in yet to be fair was only 3L away… Up in distance and down 5kg today.
Weissmuller: Last two runs have been disappointing. Up in class and same rate. No thanks.
History No Hurdle: Last few runs not good enough.
Comments: A tough race. MY quaddie numbers started out with 7 I could see with a chance at actually winning.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 11
Strategy: Backing Oasis Bloom to win with smaller bets on Lightinthenite and Hornet’s Nest
Moonee Valley Race 8
Buffering: Won 6 from 7 first up. Back to 1200m where better suited but a few of these have passed him in recent times. Have to find best to win today.
Epaulette: Just ignore last start last prep. Did miss start which is a concern. Look to two back when beating Sea Siren very well. First up last prep chanced home Black Caviar very well also for a 2nd place. Will be coming from the back.. maybe too far back?
Bel Sprinter: We all know what he did last prep first up. Missed start and won by 3.3L in one of the runs of the year. Won 5 from 5 first up and if jumps well enough will sit closer to the front. Hard to knock.
Moment of Change: Ran well first up but all things considered, could have ran better. Others preferred today.
General Truce: Continues to run well. Barrier is poor today sadly.
Conservatorium: Prefer further but last prep did go very well over this distance. Poor record first up is an issue.
Le Bonsir: Won’t get an easy lead today. Still you can’t fully dismiss him but up 4.5kg today.. ouch.
Captain Fancypantz: Love the horse, you all know this.. but up 3kg in this class. No thanks.
Snitzerland: Been off for months after a strong enough prep. Going forward from barrier 3 and will put on a speed battle with Buffering which will suit a certain Bel Sprinter. Still a chance if produces best.
Samaready: Very strong return to the track in what was a much easier race. This is the testing material. Would love to see her win but just not sure she is the best here.
Comments: This race will be amazing. Sit back and enjoy!
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 9, 10
Strategy: It is hard to oppose Bel Sprinter’s record. Trial form was franked also. Looks even better on the E/W!
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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