Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on Manikato Stakes Night Saturday 25 October 2013. What a weekend of racing we have upon us! We get to see some superstars tonight and to back it all up again tomorrow. Let’s just say, I won’t get much sleep Friday evening! There looks to be quite a few genuine chances in races that are around the $2-$3 mark that are either the right price of actually value tonight. Taking ‘the shorts’ so to speak should work out tonight. Big day tomorrow. Build the bank and hopefully slot the Quaddie also with a bit of value in the first and third! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Samaready
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 3 Gregers
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 4 RomancingTheStone
Best Place Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 Keep De Rose
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 11, 14
Leg Two: 3, 4, 9
Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 7, 10
Leg Four: 1, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Why Not: Disappointing run last start. Much better weighted today but even so has never run this distance and was well and truly beaten.
Jumpin Jack Cash: Disappointing run last start and previous were not good enough to be winning this. No thanks.
Tanah Lot: Ran well enough last start at Caulfield. Need to find much more in this class though.
North Lodge: Good win at course and distance last start when leading all the way. Was given a great ride b Lane. Up in class today but has every chance again if ridden well.
Caroun: Hard to see winning at these weights on previous runs around runners here.
Sugar Bush: No sugar to be passed to this runner today.
Pickme: Couldn’t pick this one.
Comments: North Lodge the obvious on previous run but this is a hard race to line up
Confidence 70%
Strategy: North Lodge to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Black Cash: Down from Queensland. 2nd behind Less Is More is strong form and since then won both races first and second up. 60kg is an issue but looks the best in the race… but geez the price is short?
Auld Burns: Never won 2nd up and ran only fairly first up. Has ability and maps very very very well… but needs to improve significantly today.
Grey Monarch: Showed nothing last start. Not in this.
Purettan: First up run showed something but last two starts have been poor at best. May need to be closer to the front to have a chance today.
Dance For Cash: Decent horse but how far can she improve to win this? Maps well but needs luck.
High Kingczar: Maps to win this. Needs a lot of luck but will be much closer to the lead today ridden for luck.
Secret Toy Bizness: Ran on well last start but keeps finding a few too good. Up in class again today looks a little too hard.
Stanzior: Very disappointing last start. No thanks.
King Magnusson: Hasn’t shown enough since winning first race a long time ago.
Consoling Amy: Ran on only fairly last start. Not for mine.
Comments: Tough race with a few key runners but you just don’t know. Something could improve big time.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: High Kingczar to win. Saver Black Cash.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Gregers: 3 from 3 at this track and won 3 from 5 this prep. Last start ran VERY well behind Guelph and May’s Dream. Maps as the only leader in the race and can kick away from them on the turn.
Gypsy Diamond: Ran well enough last start but can’t make up 2L on Gregers today.
Federica: Good win first up but last start had every chance and wasn’t good enough. Up 3kg today up in class. No.
Fantome Gris: Very disappointing last start at Caulfield but it was certainly hard to run on. Previous tow runs suggest could run nicely but needs luck from barrier 2.
So Bella Arella: Won a poor maiden by a long way. Did run close behind The Huntress last prep. Hard to have though.
Scratchy Bottom: Only won a maiden first up but it was a competitive one and she did win well enough. Need luck and need better times.
Lady Tatia: Very slowly run 1400m was won well. Has a turn of foot but this good?
Navajo Run: Couldn’t win off last start run.
Comments: There may be some progressive types but Gregers is the real deal. Right price today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Gregers to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Montsegur: Runs this prep have all been solid without winning. Maps well enough today but is she the best here?
Bulbula: Form behind May’s Dream two back looks very solid here. May try push a lot further forward today compared to last start. Big chance on form lines.
Tweet: Disappointing last start. Hard to see a win on that run.
Mezeray Miss: Good run first up and then hasn’t shown enough since. Maps ok from inside barrier though.
Miss Steele: Was a big win two back at course but last start didn’t show as much as expected. Need luck from barrier.
RomancingTheStone: Huge run last start at Flemington when just simply too far back and beaten by a very handy horse. Sit further forward today from barrier and be one to beat.
Minaj: Niki won very easy first up this prep by a huge margin. Could be value.
Essie’s Pride: Hard to see winning on form lines.
The Messina Nymph: Awkward barrier today but sent over after a strong win first up. Can run well.
Sense of Hite: Blocked for runs last start so we couldn’t see what she had to give. Need luck today but could run well.
Longchamp Belle: Maps to lead this up and on previous form can run a solid race.
Judical Rock: Not going well enough to win today.
Holy Cow: Moo! Ran very well first up behind Anatina. Barrier hurts.
Comments: Very tough race. I have it down to four that I like in Bulbula, RomancingTheStone, Minaj and The Messina Nymph. Not sure If i’ll have a play here but if the track has a bias early, then I may.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Bulbula on top from RomancingTheStone
Moonee Valley Race 5
King Cotton: No speed from the inside barriers so can take the fence out front. Could lead but best has been from taking a sit and with the weight… has to. Really hard to win off this weight.
Like Bolt: Ran 5th in WFA-LR last start over in ADelaide and before that won a solid race. Maps to go close to getting the lead and is proven off a fast tempo and a big weight. Big chance.
Fab Fevola: Ignore last run of last prep. Look to previous runs and look at weights. Needs to jump well from barrier but is a huge chance if at best.
God’s Window: Tough weight tonight and hasn’t run well since 2012. At best could run ok.
Lankan Rupee: Won 3 from 4 at distance and won VERY well here last start. Up 2kg today but comes into it well.
Rifleman: Meets Lankan 5kg better off today… Could get a better mapped position today as well. Not out of it.
Hadronica: Ignore last start and rate on four previous runs. Did run Samaready to within 2.5L and can be ridden for luck today. One of the chances.
Paaratte Pat: Big win last start at Seymour in a nice time. Can position well enough from barrier and weighted very well. Could be value.
Bel Price: Down in clas today off previous three runs. Maps well enough but needs to run on well. Probably needs further.
Magnus Reign: Needs to have improved significantly today to go close. Can’t see it.
Black Jack Boy: 5.5kg better off today against Lankan Rupee when blocked for runs twice. If luck can go close.
Comments: Tough race. So many chances. Lankan Rupee is huge unders.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 11, 14
Strategy: Black Jack Boy on the E/W looks a very good bet while Fab Fevola has the ability to go close.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Cathay Lady: Weighted poorly today and barrier 10. Will need to work hard to get over and has never run this distance. Hard to judge.
Alzora: Improved this prep and has started to run well again. Maps well enough but will she measure up?
Keep De Rose: Continues to run well and this is the biggest test yet. Up 2.5kg today in stronger class but maps perfectly from barrier 7. No excuses.
Queenstown: Will need to do a load of work early to get to the front but can do it. As long as doesn’t miss the start, should be very very very hard to pass in the straight.
Detox: Very disappointing run last start. Hard to have.
Innocent Lady: Ran well enough blocked for runs but hard to see the improvement needed.
Bia Diamond: Disappointing third last start and up in class again. Hard to see the required improvement.
Miss Outshine: Ran well but wasn’t good enough. 2.5kg better off today but maps worse today. Needs to improve again.
Freezy: Barrier hurts her chances today. Has ability.
Stella Lante: Nice win last start in easier company. Barrier hurts and has to improve again today.
Princess Peggy: Ran well first up but hard to see progressing enough to pass all here.
Noble Twostep: Ran well enough last start but needs to improve significantly for this.
Nippa Bleu: Never runs well first or 2nd up.
Rick’s Lady: Not in this.
Comments: Hard to go past Queenstown and Keep De Rose
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 9
Strategy: Big bet on Queenstown and smaller on Keep De Rose.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Constant Force: Maps to take a sit 3-4 back on the fence. Ran ok first up and goes ok at distance. Needs to show a lot more today though.
Lord Durante: Simply suggest you ignore last start run and look to previous three runs. Barrier 1, you know he will either take the lead or take a sit and is in with every chance.
Quick Shakes: Continues to run well and comes into this with some solid wins on record. Crying out for a dryer track and gets it today. Could surprise many.
Midnight GLory: Just not going well enough right now to win this.
Alrouz: Found one too good lat start at Cranny. Step up in distance is what is needed.. weighted to win today and looks trained on for this.
New York: Not going well enough to win this.
Post D’France: Progressive win last start and can improve again today.. DOes need to improve to win though.
Regular Aussie: Last two runs not been good enough to win here today.
King’s Star: Hard to see going close on recent runs.
Esprit Rossa: A horse with large upside unlucky not to win here last start. Needs to get a solid position in run but every chance.
Harvey’s True Heart: Hard to see a win on last few runs. But if has improved back to 3YO form then could surprise.
Leveraction: Hard to see going as close as expected from barrier. Needs to improve.
Comments: Wide open but a few appeal at prices.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 7, 10
Strategy: Alrouz.on top but hard race.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Lucky Nine: Hong Kong runner who beat out Bel Sprinter very well in his last start. Goes well first up and comes into this off ‘only ok’ training. Runs fast times and maps well enough from barrier.
Buffering: Continues to find one too good for him in these Group races. Hard to see reversing the previous result and most likely gets held out for the lead by Le Bonsir so will be 2-wide the whole trip.
Temple of Boom: Last three runs have all had merit but up in this class today looks very hard to back. Could place.
Bel Sprinter: Disappointing last start when slowly away and blocked for runs. Bad 2nd up record is a concern but should run well. Barrier hurts.
Shamexpress: Hasn’t been seen since went over to England and failed. Doesn’t seem a true WFA horse.
Moment of Change: Hasn’t measured up this prep and would need to find lengths to win this today. Maps well enough.
Rebel Dane: Blow out chance. Continues to run big races. Issue is weight today. Not sure a WFA horse.
Sessions: Good horse, not good enough for these in WFA company. Could place.
Le Bonsir: Ran very well last start here in similar class. Won’t win but could run well enough to grab a place.
Samaready: The one to beat. Could blow these away AGAIN. Best has been seen on DEAD tracks is important to realise. Slow no issue if somehow it got to that.
Diamond Earth: Very under-rated horse. Best distance is 1000-1200m and gets that today. Most importantly, gets a sit behind the leaders today from perfect barrier. Is a very progressive horse and has a big future. Expect to run a big race.
Arinosa: Very strong win from the back first up. The question is, is she good enough to chase these down? I’m not so sure from that barrier.
Comments: Samaready should beat all of these on a DEAD track.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 10
Strategy: Samaready to Win. Saver Lucky Nine. Spec place bet on Diamond Earth.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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