Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 2 August 2014. As per last week, I am again on holiday this week so the form is less in-depth but will return next Saturday. Running Bull was our best run last week at nearly $20 going a good 2nd but no dice. Onwards and upwards and we have outlined five key bets we are interested in tomorrow. As always, especially on a track like Moonee Valley having it’s first run on the newly laid down surface, make sure you watch the early and even late bias trends. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Form is provided in a less in-depth preview (no preview of every runner) as I am now on my pre-spring one week holiday!
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 9 Jessy Belle
Jessy is back again and we are on again. This time down in class into open class and weighted to win. Most importantly, the main threats will be giving Jessy 2-3 lengths and we expect Jessy to get a cover up off the leaders. Rates to win and price is still value.
Melbourne Next Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 The Cleaner
1600m. Moonee Valley. Wet track. Everything works out for The Cleaner once again today. The main threats map to be further back in the race and everything is suited. Any other day would feature as our best bet, but the value of the price on offer isn’t as good as our Best of the day.
Melbourne Best Place Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 First Course
I hear you saying.. hold up.. you have The Cleaner already has our Next Best… so why are you betting this horse? First Course maps to sit on speed today and I was very impressed with last starts run. I think the horse maps to have every chance today to run a place and the price on offer is more than double the correct odds!
Other Bets
Moonee Valley Race 7 Under The Louvre
Don’t take the early odds. Watch to how the ground is playing up until Race 6 and if the back markers have a chance then we are having a bet on UTL again. Price is right $3 and above.
Moonee Valley Race 1 Hippopus
Down from Sydney, the wetter the better. The form lines check out and if we have a very wet slow or even a heavy track then our confidence increases. Currently $4+ on offer and I expect to jump at closer to $3.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 8, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
A six horse race to start the day for a Metro Victoria Saturday raceday?? What do they think this is? Sydney? Well the two favourites are both Sydney based runners so it makes sense. Better than a 2YO race I guess!
Hippopus is the standout runner for me here today. The rain overnight is welcomed and the higher the slow rating the more confident the bet becomes. This is a horse who ran Junoob to 0.2L last prep over this distance on a Heavy track and then ran The Offer to 2.5 lengths the next start, both in Group company. The others in this race are not Group horses and Hippopus is the ONLY natural leader… will be able to run it to suit and kick away and win.
Comments: Happy to have a win bet on Hippopus to start the day.
Confidence 75% (80% on a heavy track)
Strategy: Hippopus to win
Moonee Valley Race 2
Devonshire Duke has to be respected today. Ran well over 1300m two back and then last start won very well on Heavy at Morphetville. The wetter the better.. barrier only issue.
Digitialism was blocked for a run last start but did run well and is way back in class today. Should sit more handy today and has to be considered a chance on class.
Haven’t seen Rambert for over a year but did beat Gotta Take Care over 2500m by 4 lengths… not for mine even at the odds… too wet and won’t get own way out front.
Angelic Lass not going well enough.
Charles in Charge is well found in the market after a brave 2nd to Jessy Belle in harder company. Up 1kg only looks nice but will have a challenge for the lead today. Rates well.
Count Encosta has won two in a row but has to improve again today. Maps to get back but barrier 4 helps. Wetter the more chance he has.
Elwaaryaa is the unknown runner. Purchased from France and having first run in 9 months… have to respect when they bring one over. Price yard.
Comments: Three to Four key chances plus a very much unknown in the French first up runner. Very happy to avoid betting here today.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Count Encosta E/W
Moonee Valley Race 3
Sacred Flyer maps ok today but 60kg is a big put off with Symons on for mine at the price.
Zabeelionaire hasn’t won since 2012 but was back to career best form last start and even three back. Can improve today from barrier but has to sit midfield.
Backbone won well last start but big distance increase today and have to say this is a much harder race today on a wet track. Not for me.
Mulaquen needs a Good track to find his best form. Not here.
Angelology is hard to catch. The wetter the better. Weighted ok but others do look slightly better form wise. Wide barrier hurts.
Green Roller is a horse i’m willing to take on tody at the price. Off 52kg, yes, that does look good, but what did she beat last start? Failed to peak again two back after a strong win three back.
Rowland was huge last start and maps to get a nice run today, but even at the weight, I would want closer to $18 than the $13 on offer to be on again today on a track that i’m not sure suits as well as Caulfield.
Comments: Another wide-open race with some hard to track form lines. Have to go with the value it seems.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Zabeelionaire to win. Smaller bet Rowland as long as we get a higher price than the $13 currently on offer.
Moonee Valley Race 4
I really don’t have a clue how to approach this race.
If you took the $5 last start for African Pulse to beat Lord of the Sky then 4.5kg better today after the fail of Lord of the Sky and a $3 better price, with the wet overnight, you probably have to go again today?
Let’s be honest, if Lord of the Sky from two back run turns up, the horse should win by 3 lengths over this bunch.
Solsay is a good horse but hasn’t measured up to this yet and the wet is a concern while Siwi Lady has similar form issues.
Comments: Really hard to be against Lord of the Sky
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Lord of the Sky to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5
2YO’s are now 3YO’s and this group is hard to rate.
Empress O’Reilly measured up as the real deal last prep and has to be respected here.
Comments: Can’t be very confident betting here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Empress O’Reilly to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Boomkwaa looked to be one of the best going around early 2YO but failed to deliver after seconds to Fighting Sun and Peggy Jean and 3L to Earthquake. Hard to have confidence.
Forgive and Forget impressed at Flemington. Barrier is bad today. Looks a good horse.
Gold Force won very well first up but failed hard next start. Have to forgive 2nd run.
Nordic Empire beat Zululand first up and then an ok 3rd 2nd up.
Comments: Which genius scheduled this race as the start of the Quaddie? Four stand outs.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Strategy: Forgive and Forget to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Mr Make Believe ran very well last start at Flemington. Best suited over 1000m and up to 1200m may just be a little too short… but the wetter track today will be appreciated back in class.
Sea Lord was very poor first up. Hard to have even though he is a track specalist. Prefers it dry.
Alpha Proxima improved again last start but not the same horse as last win at course.
Academy Jack ran on well last two starts but doesn’t have a long sprint and that has cost him the win the last two starts. Will occur again today at weights.
Under The Louvre is the best horse in the race. Last win came at course. Handles a wet track and track may just be playing to back-markers by this stage in the day.
Hard Stride has run 2nd in four of his last five. Just seems to find one or two too good. Weighted nicely today and has to be considered but never won from 4 tries on slow.. but handles it.
Play Master has to be given a chance today on last start strong win. Up in class and weight the issue.
It’s Poets Day is big overs today. Goes fine on a wet track and weighted nicely. Ran well last start at Flemington and should be suited by extra 200m, wetter track and forward position.
Comments: Price is right again for Under The Louvre.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 8, 11
Strategy: Under the Louvre to win. Smaller bet It’s Poets Day
Moonee Valley Race 8
Keep this one simple. The Cleaner is suited at the 1600m and 60.5kg shouldn’t be an issue. Will lead and should win.
Tristram’s Sun rates nicely today at the weights and will be just off the pace all the way where you need to be.
First Course is an unknown after the very good first up run. Looks big odds.
Fulgur is a cat but may just want it wet… will at least be in the right place in run.
Fast and Free an unknown. On two back run goes well but last start and three back was horrible.
Comments: Very keen to be on The Cleaner here. Also want to be on First Course at the price.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: Big bet on The Cleaner. Small bet First Course.
Moonee Valley Race 9
Lady Melksham from barrier today has to sit closer to the speed and is a genuine chance.
Atlantis Dream has to be taken on again today at the price but is going to go close again.
Jessy Belle is weighted to win and off 54kg back to a wet track is suited from the barrier and small field. Maps for the best position.
Comments: Jessy Belle the best of the day.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7
Strategy: Jessy Belle to win
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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