Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley, Randwick and Eagle Farm on 21 June 2014. Back to Moonee Valley for the last race meet there for the ‘year’ and also over to Eagle Farm for the last Group 1 race for the ‘year’. Fields look tough today, lower size betting stakes for me. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 Hard Stride
Expecting a rail that will suit front runners and Hard Stride will be there when it counts. Tough as nails, this horse stays for days and will beat any challengers out the front. The price is more than value which is the key to backing here today.
Interstate Best Bet
Eagle Farm Race 7 Steps in Time
I was super impressed with the runs and times of this guy last prep. Expecting similar run today and there is no other runner suited to the super vast tempo in the race on my ratings. Will run them all tired and out-stay them!
Melbourne Next Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 The Cleaner
Will be leading all the way in a very quick time. Expecting rail to be working out and he will be almost impossible to get past if repeats last start form. Big price for a quality runner.
Interstate Next Bet
Randwick Race 2 Cradle Me
Ridden upside down last start as our Best Bet, we still got the win. Will sit back today and swoop late on a swoopers track at Randwick. Rates to win and price again today is good enough to take.
Melbourne Best E/W Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Proper Madam
Proper Madam comes into this today about 33% higher odds than my ratings suggest and is a sensational price. Correct jockey goes on today and rates and maps to win.
Interstate Best E/W Bet
Randwick Race 8 Zaratone
Will take the lead early, will be leading at the 200m mark… all depends on the run how far infront Zaratone is… if the rail is working out then he has every chance to hold on. A great back to lay option also.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 7, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Very tough way to open the day. First starters never seen and form lines that don’t match. No thanks.
Symphoenix has to be given a chance on two back run and will push for the lead. Kilim has to improve today. Presto back on dryer track will be found out. Turfane is a legit chance… has ability and positions very well. First starters the ones to watch IMO.
Confidence 10%
Strategy: Just watch… but the two kav first starts worth looking at in the yard for fitness (prefer breeding of Magicool).
Moonee Valley Race 2
Oriental Ruby: Very poor finish to last prep. back in class big time today and back to 1000m. Did go close last prep first up over 1200m. Barrier helps but will be a long way back.
Hai Lil: Didn’t take the ‘next step’ last prep. She is a very good horse and loves this track… but 1000m isn’t her best distance. Last win over 1200m… from barrier will be ridden for luck and go close in this class, but needs luck.
Flash of Doubt: Goes well firs tup and had a nice break from the track. Last win was in this type of class over this distance. Won 2 from 4 first up also and off 55kg, is racing at a similar weight to what she was getting in Open and Listed grade. Goes well at this track also. Will be running on late.
Legcut: The most impossible horse to catch. She could win this by 5 lengths or lose it by 10.
Bloomingdale Miss: Small spell and back at it. Won first up last prep at course over 950m. Next start no luck 2.5L 6th… measures up in this class.
Johannapine: A very disappointing non-winner who hasn’t got the prize since 2012… she has huge potential but just keeps missing. Barrier hurts chances today.
Klishina: Doesn’t look to be this class. Happy to take on here.
Aces and Angels: Good win two back but can’t see her making the step up today.
Headless: Weighted ok but needs to have found 2 lengths for this.
Rhonda In Paris: Not this class.
Ali Go Easy: Too hard a class today on ratings.
Comments: Top 6 numbers can all be considered genuine chances here. Very open race. I have to go with legcut here today. Maps to be the closest to the speed of the genuine chances and I’m not sure making up ground will be that easy today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Legcut E/W
Moonee Valley Race 3
Hard Stride: Weighted to win. Meets Kievann 2.5kg better off today and is back to a more suitable track condition on what may be a biased track for front runners. Won’t get the front too easy with two inside of him wanting to go forward as well as one outside… but rates to win.
Kievann: Surprised many with the first up win. Showed potential last prep but looks to have taken the next step. Barrier hurts today to get a really good position but looks suited. Weight only issue.
Baker Boy: Can’t fault this blokes prep! Good win two back and went close last start as well at MV. Down 1.5kg today and weighted very well. Barrier hurts to get to the front though is an issue but should try take a sit. Talented.
Brotherly Secret: Very very very crap first up. Not sure how I can forgive that run, showed NOTHING. Had nearly a month between runs and back to dead today should help… but that was super poor.
Hill Spy: The one to beat on form lines at the weights. First up, 2nd up and even last start all his runs were super but just finding one or two too good. Barrier hurts but should sit midfield and tempo will suit.
Belesron: Not in this class on my ratings.
Kraftwerk: Good horse who keeps finding a few too good for him. Werighted nicely today though when you consider 3-4kg better off against Baker Boy… sneaky chance from barrier.
So Does He: Solid time two back but didn’t meausre up last start. Not here.
Red Samurai: Going forward today i’d say from inside but last start run didn’t inspire.
The Dylan: Couldn’t win a BM-64 last start.
Baby Jack: Couldn’t win a maiden!
Comments: I think Hill Spy is a very good horse but I can’t resist a front runner ridden by my girl Katie M at this track.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Hard Stride on a 1.5 units to place 1 unit to win ratio looks hard to refuse.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Jesse Belle: Won her last two at this track and placed the other start. Just ignore last start and rate on previous five runs and she is the horse to beat here today. Barrier 4, she could lead but I expect her to simply settle for a sit with so much pace in the race.
Longchamp Belle: Ridden back last start after found inteference and ran on nicely but wanted to be closer than that. Back in class here and weighted nicely, Dead 5 is required I’d say or slow to find best. Can win don’t count out.
Young Tigers Jeuny: Very very very poor and disappointing last start as one of our best. Can’t be anywhere near her today.
Celeritas: Ran ‘well’ last start at Sandown but this is a massive step up and I can’t see it.
Shadow of the Mist: Decent first prep getting the maiden and 64 race but this is way beyond her.
Spirit of Heaven: Showed nothing last prep. Did prove to be a good horse in first prep and has to be respected today. Best seen on wet track.
Street Allure: Won his maiden just two back and then won very well last start at Sandown… was an eye-catcher last start but has to improve again.
Cobblestones: Disappointed last two runs. Can’t have today.
I’m Fearsome: Too far back last two runs is the simple explanation of it all. Weighted nicely again but may finally be suited by going back in the run with such a hot tempo expected.
Arjae: Not good enough.
Our Renaissance: Not shown anything all prep. Less rain will suti but not in this.
Write The Cheque: Couldn’t win R-64’s so not here.
Miss Procyon: R58 winner on slow. Up in this class 0 chance.
The Secret: Maiden only winner… but did come 2nd at 2 in a 2YO race in NZ. Not the worst but can’t see it in this class.
Comments: Jesse Belle, Longchamp Belle and I’m Fearsome the three that stand out for me, but i’m happy to be on two here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Jessy Belle to win. Lesser bet on I’m Fearsome.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Voila Ici: Very brave run last start leading all the way but finally run down late. Back to a dead track today, never placed before on dead is an issue. Weighted nicely.
Whisper Downs: Easier class of race today on the field if you are asking me. Weighted nicely and has won at track previously. Best has been shown on a dead track. Have to respect and money has come for him.
Texan Warney: Close 2nd to Bec Said No Credit two back but won very well over in Adelaide in easier company last week. Down 3kg and 2.5kg better off against Bec Said No Credit. Can win.
Bec Said No Credit: Disappointing run last start but best isn’t on the wet. Can run well again today but has to find more at weights.
Lightenuff: Just missed last start at MV over this distance on a slow track when returned to best. 52kg again today and solid barrier. Can run well.
Use The Lot: Ignore last start first up when never suited by track condition. Loves MV and loves the 2000m. Has to improve again but is quality runner here.
Diamonds At Noon: Won nicely last start at $51 after a very good run first up. Weighted well again today and up in distance suits, but much harder race.
Red Eye Special: Wanting the jumps.
The Jazz Singer: Not going well enough for this. Wants it wet.
Suspended Gem: Returned at his best last start just missing at Sandown. Up in class today is an issue but based on 0.3L 3rd to Intrumentalist last prep, you ahve to respect. Probably looking for further is the issue.
Fabriano: Shown us nothing all prep so far but does develop later into races. Newitt booked interesting and back to dry tracks is the key. Expect bold showing and consider at odds.
Just Junior: Better over further than this. Can’t have here.
Olly I Am: Not in this grade today.
Comments: Form is almost impossible to match up here. Low confidence.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 11
Strategy: Voila Ici on top. Small best E/W Fabriano.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Brambles: Based on first two runs this prep needs to find lengths.
The Cleaner: Super run last start at Flemington and just beaten. 1600m is a more suitable distance and this race is a little easier class wise. Every chance today at weights.
Fulgur: Continues to run at short odds and miss the win. Up in class today equal weight. He is a good horse, but he has to show us alot more than first two runs.
Thunderbird One: Very strong win first up on the slow at Sale. This is harder, but showed class and can win.
Alpha Proxima: Ran very well for third over 1200m last start. Back up to 1600m will sut today and weighted nicely. Don’t dismiss him!
Angelology: Won two in a row ot finish last prep and is a solid runner. Best shown over further and 5 runs first up never won first up. Never won at track or in class.
Backbone: Shown best over further than this and never won first up. I have to bet around him here.
Fast And Free: Got lucky last start winning in much easier company. Can improve today and run well but this is testing material.
Lucky I’mBareFoot: Ran better than expected last start. Dead track today not exactly ideal. Weighted ok.
The New Boy: Best shown over 1400m and leading. Back off slow track today at least helps.
Rowland: Not in this class.
Sadaqa: Not in this class.
Spectral Black: Not in this class.
Comments: You want to be within the top 8 runners coming to the 600m mark as The Cleaner will have this going very fast.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5
Strategy: The Cleaner E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7
Le Bonsir: Super run last start at Flemington and just missed the win. Similar weight today and from barrier will be leading this up. Massive chance.
Under The Eiffel: Shown nothing since late last year. Has to have trained on signficiantly to win here.
Anlon: Classy horse who hasn’t returned at his best it seems…. but is his best not on heavy or slow tracks? Will be far back today but running on. Best is at 1400m+ to me.
Elite Elle: Huge run last start at Caulfield 1.5L 2nd to Lord of the Sky. Similar weight today.. barrier hurts but she jumps well enough… suited by dead track. Ideal.
Nearest to Pin: Showed a little bit last start at FLemington but not enough to be winning this today. Have to take him on, end of prep?
Future Solution: Couldn’t count on him here based on first up run
Morant: Ran well last start at this track over 1000m last start. Up in class here though and not exactly nicely weighted. Has to find another gear.
Midnight GLory: Never placed at track and only ever won once first up from 6 first up runs. Not this class first up.
Pillar of Creation: Two runs this prep both solid.. last start too far back off a slow tempo. Weighted ok today and will run well from barrier.
Academy Jack: Shown nothing last 5 runs. Can’t have.
Free of Doubt: Goes ok first up and at this track but has to find much more to win this class.
Awesome Bro: Too far back last start off a slow pace. Hard to have in this class today though.
Bay of Biscay: Ran well last start on heavy but not this class.
Comments: If it was a good track i’d be all over Le Bonsir, but never won from 11 tries off good tracks. Elite Elle on dead gets the backing.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 11
Strategy: Elite Elle to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Madam Nash: Strange placement here. Shown nothing all prep but way back in class. Can’t have to be honest.
Rememba Howe: Ran ok last start behind Mossmoney and others. Better weighted today but needs to improve 2 lengths at least.
Mossmoney: 1.5kg worse off against Bet You She Rocks today for a nice swooping win last start at course and distance. Up in class. Has ability.
Notice Received: Shown nothing all prep since Tango Daughter run. Hard to have.
Atlantis Dream: The one to beat on form. Won 3 of last 4 runs and continues to improve. 53.5kg today, will be hitting the line hard.
Bet You She Rocks: Gets a clear front running position today due to lack of pace in the race. 53kg today, weighted nicely and consistent mare. Go very close.
Special Miss: Shown nothing last two runs on slow. Rate on three back run at Kilmore and goes ok today.
Dare I Ask: Solid runs this prep but others seem to be in another league based on last few runs.
Warwarick: Not going well enough and needs further.
Vihanna Victory: Second up run was much better than expected. Finished off nicely and down 3kg today with claims. Needs further.
Noble Star: Went close last start but just missed. Poorly weighted today but should run ok.
Proper Madam: Looks the value in the race. Up to 1600m today suits and back to a better condition track, Newitt takes the ride and she is weighted nicely here. Expect to get a more forward position today also.
Queen of Eight: Not good enough based on last two runs.
Comments: Proper Madam worth giving a chance today at the odds.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 7, 13
Strategy: Proper Madam E/W
Eagle Farm Race 5
Keep this one simple. Bennetta looks to be back to her best and is back in class here today. Rates to win off last start. Very solid chance.
Comments: Happy to be on here today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Bennetta to win.
Eagle Farm Race 7
Red Tracer was very disappointing last start. Was just too far back. Has to be more forward today.
Driefontein had every chance last start but not good enough. Down 2.5kg today, still poorly weighted. Barrier helps but not for me.
Steps In Time has to be forgiven for last start on the heavy and rated on previous two runs. Weighted nicely today and barrier is perfect for going out the front. Very good chance today.
Catkins won similar class races last prep but did find Steps in Time to beat her.
Avoid Lightning continues to win this prep. Probably should have beat Cosmic Endeavour their only meeting as well. Barrier hurts a little but has the ability.
Platnium Rocker won’t beat them all home.
Angel of Mercy got lucky last start and I can’t see a repeat effort today.
She’s Clean doesn’t look good enough for this for me.
Scorpio Queen isn’t good enough.
Lonhspresso up in class here.. .going well but can’t have in this.
Gig has to be rated on last start which isn’t good enough.
Peron continues to be backed this prep and continues to disappoint. Can’t have.
Myamira didn’t show much last start and can’t have.
Cosmic Endeavour never runs a bad race. Barrier 5, she will be in the perfect position again and likes a fast speed.
Costa Viva ran nicely both runs this prep. Will be hitting the line hard.
Jazz Song has to be given a big chance today based on last start. Barrier hurts.
Comments: Steps in Time proved she is the real deal last prep. Can repeat today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Steps in Time to win.
Eagle Farm Race 8
Travolta is a massive price today considering his record. Has a good record at this type of distance and goes ok first up. I’d prefer if he was into a second run, but he will run very well.
Transporter won nicely last start from out the front in a very solid time. Has to be respected today on that effort.
Kingdoms has shown some ability last prep. Has to improve but can run nice today.
Queenstown a little disappointing first up for mine. Thought she should have won that to beat all these home today. Can improve but needs to find much more.
Belle De Coeur has measured up the last few runs of this prep. Continues to run well but just not winning. The wetter the better.
Comments: Belle De Coeur has to be backed today while Travolta is clearly value.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Belle De Coeur to win. Smaller bet Travolta.
Randwick Race 2
Cradle Me got us the win as a Best Bet last start from the front… better ridden out the back and gets that chance today at a swoopers track.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Cradle Me to win
Randwick Race 8
Zaratone is an old favourite and second up returned to his best form. Can lead today and can win. Big chance.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: E/W Zaratone
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