Welcome to The Profits Saturday form for Moonee Valley on Saturday 29 June 2013. The day starts at 12:00pm ends fairly early around 4.10 is the last race. Entry is only $10 and I would urge you to get down there for a great day of racing, you may just run into me.. the only fat guy with glasses and an iPad constantly tweeting! Yes, I am finally back from Royal Ascot. Wow what a week of racing. I will be putting up a final review of my Ascot experience and some learnings that we in Australia can take for our on course experiences, plus my carnival highlights. The website was having some issues last week so those who followed our Best Bets last week posted on twitter and facebook were rewarded with a $1.90 Best Bet winner and $10+ Next Best winner. Let’s try and keep the ball rolling. I have to admit, I am fairly confident today on my best bets. I am having some of my largest bets of the year to late due to confidence levels. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Mr O’Ceirin
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 8 Clear For Action
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 4 Exceptionally to PLACE
CAULFIELD CUP FUTURES BET
Mr O’Ceirin on Bet365 at $201-1 (Can’t find higher than $151 elsewhere, most $60-$100 and if wins well today will shorten further).
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Magnaro: Ran well enough last start at course and distance on Slow. Should appreciate the upgrade today and down 1kg.
Blonic Hill: Strong enough trial 1L behind Mightyblitz. Can run well.
More Than Sweet: Didn’t show enough in the trial to suggest can progress enough here.
Denpasar: Won a poor maiden first up then got thrashed at Moonee Valley.. behind some handy runners to be fair. Need to have found 3 lengths today.
Miss Steele: Very strong first up run at Flemington. Could be better suited back to a corner today and comes in well.
RomancingTheStone: 3L Geelong maiden break through and ran 2nd to Samarmeteors three back. Ignore heavy track run. Comes in very well.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Not very keen on these races to start the day but Miss Steele sticks out while RomancingTheStone looks a good price from barrier 2.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Elite Elle: Very very very poor run last start. Something had to have gone wrong but when vetted nothing wrong. You have to ignore last start. From barrier 5 speedmaps very well.
Day Procedure: Won 2 from 2 first up and won 4 from 10 at distance. 2 wins from 4 at track also. Barrier 8 an issue bit generally always jumps well. Certainly has the ability to win this today but this is a big step up in class. You do have to respect the Shamexpress form.
Impulse Buy: Ran strongly 1.3L 6th behind Hai Lil last start who has come out and won again. Weighted well enough today and from barrier 1 gets a gun run. Don’t dismiss.
Agulhas: Ignore first up didn’t handle the heavy. Has a chance today on last prep runs but has to improve significantly.
Hard Romp: Won very well on heavy last start but this is certainly much harder.
Prelusive Strike: Showed enough this prep to suggest can place.
Bombsquad: Not going to measure up in this.
Prakticality: Didn’t measure up to Group class last prep. Has ability but needs to find lengths.
Emperor’s Chariot: Only won a maiden.
It’s Poets Day: Only finally just won a maiden. Doesn’t look good enough.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Looks to be a fairly complicated race. Elite Elle is the best horse in the race but there look to be a few with hopes. There also looks to be a fair few speed runners in the race. Elite Elle on top.
Moonee Valley Race 3
She Can Skate: Won 3 from 4 at distance and down in class today but up 1.5kg. Huge win two back at Caulfield and just held on last start. Speedmaps to take the lead and is rated to win today.
Octavia: Won 3 of last four runs last prep and comes back today weighted to win. Will push forward most likely outside She Can Skate and can certainly surprise with a win today.
Truffle: Ran on well last start considering a slow time on the track. Down 3kg today and should beat home Nadeem Lass at very minimum.. Weighted well enough to go VERY close.
Kolonga: Mets Nadeem Lass better at weights but needs to make up ground on Truffle and the rider gives me no confidence.
La Tikka Rosa: Ran well enough last start but poorly weighted from poor barrier.
Nadeem Lass: Strong win last start but poorly weighted today against others. May find a few too good but don’t dismiss.
Nella Fantasia: Will be forced to take a sit today instead of doing work outside the leader. Weighted well enough and can go very close if repeats last start run. Apprentice goes on though and Boss off.
Summer Gem: First up run no where near good enough to suggest a win today. May need another run.
Vicario: Not up to this grade on last two starts.
City Hall: Not up to this on last two starts form behind many horses in this race and weighted poorly.
May Rain: Won’t rain actually! Not good enough for this.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: I generally think She Can Skate is a little exposed at the price today but is the saver for the race. Octavia is the key runner to back here today.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Exceptionally: Has won at this distance previously and is weighted very well today considering 3kg claim back to 58kg in a F&M race. Last five runs have been in: Group 2, 3, 2, WFA G2 and Listed company with 4 places from those 5 starts. Last prep first up ran a close 2nd to Excluded in a 16 horse field over 2000m which isn’t THAT much further than 1600m. Small field, can sit at the back and swoop hard late. Looks amazing value.
Pipette: Hasn’t won this prep and was worst run of all last start when 6th in a BM-90. No idea how she comes up favourite here up in class and weight. Huge unders.
Rememba Howe: Ran well enough last week behind Goldslick 4th at Flemington from the back. Down 6kg today gives her every chance.
Dayita: Weighted poorly today against Rememba Howe on run two back behind Koe. Needs to find much more.
Rock Princess: Got it ran to suit last start and surprised many on a dead track. Much harder race today but has claims. Will need to pass a wall of horses.
Imoto: Ran poorly last start but comes in weighted well off 51kg today. Off previous form can win.
Danish Whiskey: Weighted poorly off the Koe race form today but has ability.
Spin The Bottle: Not going well enough to contest this.
Kitty Cotswold: Not in this.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Exceptionally is crazy overs to place today.. and even win while Rememba Howe is a very close 2nd pick!
Moonee Valley Race 5
Mr O’Ceirin: He was bloody impressive last start doing a lot of hard work along the way and carrying a big weight, he kicked well clear and won by 3.5 lengths. It was an eye catching run. Has won 5 from 6 at distance and 1 from 2 at track. Looks to be the bet of the day.
Oregon Spirit: Weighted 0.5kg worse off today against Mr O’Ceirin but has never run the distance before. Can run well but hard to see the win over the quality top weight.
Constant Force: Improved to run a nice 2nd behind The Cleaner last start. Up 1kg today and up in distance suits. Can run well and could place.
De Fine Lago: Ran well enough but can’t see him turning the tables at the weights.
Oak Heart: Two super poor runs last two starts but on previous form has a chance at weights. Suspect plays up again.
Friday Hussy: Looks up against it today in this class.
Upbeat: Solid horse but never ran this distance or won at track. Last three runs showed something but not sure enough to win this.
Kuitpo Lad: Weighted well but outclassed.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3
Strategy: Mr O’Ceirin looks the stand out shortie bet for the day. I am also recommending you get on him at Bet365 to win the Caulfield Cup at $200-1. If he wins today, that won’t be around anymore.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Under The Eiffel: Came through with a very big win last start and up 1.5kg today. Big issue today is the rail barrier as might get blocked for runs. Has every chance today.
Hawks Bay: Doesn’t come in well enough at the weights today off last two runs. No thanks.
Sea Galleon: Disappointing first up run and hard to see progression to place.
Spacecraft: Ran on very well last start from out the front, setting up a fairly decent pace and kicked away for a very easy victory. 4 wins 4 places on this course and Nisbet obviously gets along well with the horse. Down 2kg today after claims and from barrier 5 maps out the front again! Massive chance.
Hanks: Didn’t show anything first up. Needs further.
Storm Burst: Didn’t return in career best form and last two runs have been average at best. Probably forgive last start for being so far back. Sit closer today but needs luck to get in.
Blackie: This horse continues to get into races and run under the odds. This is once again today. Last three runs way too poor for this.
Montgomery: Have to forgive for last start run and if you look to previous two runs, can run well off weight.
Its Prince: Ran ok two back in Open class but looks to be outclassed on recent runs.
Palasport: Interesting runner down from Sydney. Rates ok but this looks very tough.
Full Hand: Hard runner to rate today. Probably up against it class wise today but should run well off runs this prep.
Guru Bay: Not up to this class today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 9
Strategy: Spacecraft is the one to follow here. Last start win was Huge. E/W all day.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Serene Star: Ran well enough last two runs at Flemington, but better suited back onto the bend you have to suggest. Down in class and weighted well off 57.5kg today you have to suggest.. if they are swooping all day then she is a massive chance.
Bonnie Mac: Ran poorly last start and needs to improve at weights on last three runs to win this. Not without hope.
Black ‘N’ Tough: Won 3 of last 4 races down in Tasmania. We saw The Cleaner come over last week to clean up at $10s as our Next Best but i’m not sure the form lines are THAT strong. Has won 7 from 11 at distance and only missed a place once. You can’t dismiss for sure and maps very well.
Draw Forward: Fairly surprising win last start if you ask me in a fairly slowly run race. Up 0.5kg today but off that run has every chance even though back markers were suited.
Mosse Diva: Hayes is a sneaky one. Spacecraft at the back first two runs this prep and then goes forward and Bang. Mosse Diva given pretty much no chance last start when slowly away and blocked for a run. Schofield on board today and if jumps well from barrier 6 will get a very solid run. Big chance. Stick with this mare.
Red Typhoon: Never won first up and showed nothing last prep. Needs further.
Caprossa: Not going well enough to compete here.
Gig: Form lines of 2nd to Platelet, 3rd to It Is Written and win over Al Aneed should be considered while previous two runs all ignored. First up this prep after a decent spell from barrier 1. Speed maps very well and Snowden wouldn’t return unless the horse was right. Big chance today.
Bella Bolce: Not going well enough and not up to this standard just yet.
Diazling: Geelong form won’t hold up in this race.
Counted: Ran very well last start all things considered from the back. Hard to see pushing forward today.
Two Hills: Needs to find a few more lengths to even be a place chance.
Rustana: Not good enough. Heavy win last start only real form.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 9
Strategy: Very open race. Gig is the on-top pick for us who should show huge amounts of progression today while Mosse Diva deserves backing again.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Alpha Proxima: Returned in probably career worst form. Hard to see any chance of a win today at weights but could place.
Clear For Action: Placed in 8 of 9 runs. Been off close to a year and a half with an injury but has been slowly pushed to recover and trained on for last 4 months. Over from Singapore. Ran 2nd in previous tow runs at WFA-G1 level and previous to that ran 2nd in 3Y-GP1. Won 3 from 4 and placed in other time at this distance and won 2 from 2 first up. Weighted fine by me and barrier suits to sit midfield. Most interesting runner of the day and absolutely sticks out for me as the best of the day at a price.
Hotham Heights: Down to 56.5kg today which is required but last two runs show needs to improve significantly today. Maps poorly.
Corvidae: Good run last start but still beaten fairly well. Previous run also solid. Weighted ok but others favoured.
Sir Fernando: Solid runner who found a few too good over here last prep so went to Adelaide and couldn’t get the win either. expect to have returned well but hard to get over from barrier 17. Will have to spend a lot early.
Flyingconi: Ignore first up run on Heavy. Has ability to run well today.
Regalmania: Not classy enough on previous runs this prep. Others better.
Tackleberry: Given every chance last start and disappointing to the line. Up in weight and from barrier 15 will find it hard to get over.
Any Dream Will Do: At his best he can go close here today but last two runs very poor.
Henwood: Looks the main danger, weighted to win off 52kg today after a big win at Bendigo in much easier company.
Borsay: Won well at Geelong but doesn’t measure up in the city.
Signor Socks: Hasn’t returned well enough this prep to compete here… although both runs were heavy? Still not well enough for mine.
Viscera: Ran ok at Geelong but this is much harder.
SMoken Cash: Not going to measure up today on previous runs.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 5, 9, 11
Strategy: Going very big each way on Clear for Action with a saver of the win bet on Henwood.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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