Welcome to The Profits form guide for the first meeting of the new season at Moonee Valley. A tough line-up today with some very competitive races but there are always a few stand-outs. If betting the first few races, start very small for the day and go upwards from there. As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Streets of Seattle
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 3 The Cleaner
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 6 Alpha Proxima
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
*You are taking most of these runners on trust.. very hard to bet with any confidence*
Clevadude: Missed start at Gold Coast but on first two runs form you have to suggest is the runner to beat. Weighted well enough as well.
Weinholt: Good win last start at Caulfield. Could return well but weight looks harsh.
Ticket to Toorak: Didn’t show enough last prep to suggest is progressive enough.
Cauthen: First up from a 8.5L maiden win from NZ. Looks under the odds today when you consider the prize money from that race was under $4000.
Mal’s Pride: Not good enough on last prep but could have trained on?
This Is War: Not in this.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Cauthen looks a lay at the price. Clevadude is the obvious top pick.
Moonee Valley Race 2
*Another race where you are taking runners on trust and potential*
Gregers: Good run first up at course and distance. Next start solid behind Miracles of Life 2.3L off. 57kg after claim today looks fair.
Metastasio: Ignore last start run over 1200m and suited by 1000m you would think here from barrier 1. Will lead it up and if the rail is golden will be very hard to pass.
I’m Too Sexy: Doesn’t look progressive enough to win this today.
JennyFromTheBlock: Not going to measure up good enough here.
Maroon Bay: Wouldn’t be overlooking this runner. If the cash comes, pay attention. Half-sister to a VERY classy runner called Jolie Bay who beat home Knight Exemplar & Your Song three back, Brave Soul two back (just behind Better than Ready) and beat ShamExpress last start (Nechita beat her).
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Metastasio will be hard to pass but the runner I’m most interested in is Maroon Bay.
Moonee Valley Race 3
The Cleaner: Done by the weight last start it looked like with the long straight. Suited by the MV track you have to assume and is the only natural leader. 3KG claim should be the difference.
Exceptionally: Horrible first up, didn’t show much on heavy 2nd up. No thanks.
Sea Galleon: Hasn’t shown anything this prep.
Dayita: Disappointing run last start but off 52kg comes into this very well today. Don’t dismiss.
Pepin Hoaks: Good win last start in much easier company. Not in this on recent form unless heavy today.
Darlimurla Star: Couldn’t beat home Pepin Hoaks and won’t today.
Street Eclipse: Solid runner but hard to see measuring up here.
Willing Journey: Not in this.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: The Cleaner is the one to beat here while Dayita is weighted to go close.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Bells of Troy: Has won previously first up but never run at track before, never won at distance. Has enough ability to not dismiss.
Friday Hussy: Strong run last start behind De Fine Lago at course but has never won at distance. Back in distance suits at weights.
Ominous Quality: Big win on heavy track last start in much easier company. Weighted well enough and may have turned the corner.
Bia Diamond: Ignore last start and look to previous run where unlucky just behind Koe. Weighted to win today, but may find it hard to get out from barrier 1.
Love For Ransom: Will need a lot of luck coming from the back today but at the weights you certainly can’t write her off.
Current Affair: Not good enough on recent runs.
Taat Sensation: Rate this horse on two back run where won well. Has the ability to go close.
Eliza Blues: Weighted to win today if you liked the run behind Taat Sensation two back. Will need a lot of luck from back in the field though.
Bonne Nuit: Hard to feel the horse will measure up here today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Friday Hussy gets the nod from Bia Diamond
Moonee Valley Race 5
Reuben Percival: May find it tough with the 61kg today but is the one to beat after a sensation run in the Grafton Cup blocked for a run 3rd behind Mr O’Ceirin who would be winning this.
Gotta Take Care: Ran well enough last start behind Arch Fire on the Heavy and is weighted better today.. but may struggle to run on from the back.
Streets of Seattle: Back to her best form last start winning JUST at Flemington. Back to the valley where she has a very solid record, down in class and up in distance. Off 52kg today.. 3 wins from 5 starts at distance. Big chance.
Jumpin Jack Cash: Average at best last start at Flemington but previous win at Morphetville worth considering on.
Angelology: Very poor class on race last start and just has to be ignored. Gets a much hrader class today anmd will struggle to beat a few of these.
Arch Fire: Great win last start on the Heavy and weighted to win again today. Should position well enough to be a threat.
Bright Horizon: Not in this.
Picture Editor: Meets Streets of Seattle 1kg better off today but will struggle to get as good a position. Still a chance.
Lyonell: Not good enough for this class.
Buddy Amazing: Not amazing anough.
Stable Star: Hard horse to judge. Very strong run last start in 3YO class.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 3, 6, 8
Strategy: Streets of Seattle is the one to beat.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Spacecraft: Ran another solid run last start but was found out. Equal class today and up 6kg. Hard to see the win at weights?
Another Prelate: Geez. Another close loss last start after starting away slowly. Maps out the back which is an issue but will be coming hard late as always.
Clanga’s Glory: Went close two back before very strong win last start. Going to have to come hard late.
Alpha Proxima: Been going poor recently but last start was a best this prep. Up to 1600m looks to be wanted and will be pushing forward… looks to be one of the best here.
LuckyI’mBareFoot: Strong enough run last start but up 4kg makes it hard.
Noble Park: Not going well enough.
Rowland: Not in this.
Vizhaka: Ran well enough last start but just couldn’t get the win. Can run well today.
Rock Musician: Outclassed.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 3, 4, 5, 9
Strategy: Alpha Proxima maps to lead this up and at the weights will be very hard to pass. Another Prelate will be hitting the line hard.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Broken: Meets Last Gift 2kg better off today at the weights but speed maps needing a lot of luck.
Canali: Ignore first up run and look to previous form lines. Has won in class, distance and track previously. Doesn’t handle heavy. If track goes to good. Back with a fair bit of confidence.
Osvaldo: Classy HK runner but needs further.
Last Gift: Only just snuck in last start infront of Zedi Knight. This looks to be similar or slightly harder class today but has every chance from barrier.
Day Procedure: Jumps very well every time and has the ability to push over and take the front. Beriman won’t make the same mistake Schofield did two back and as long as dead or good track, has every chance today.
Ravenous Lass: Finally broke through in significantly easier class. Goes well at track but this looks too hard.
It’s Poets Day:Big win last start at Flemington but will find this much harder at the valley. Still a chance.
She’s Ellie: Average runs at best first two runs this prep. Not good enough.
Whatanexcuse: Form lines not strong enough to get the win here.
Smoken Cash: Ran very well out fron last start but this is much harder.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 5, 6
Strategy: Last Gift on top here from Day Procedure.
Moonee Valley Race 8
*Very open race. Could be the race of the day for sure*
Overtake: Ignore last start and look to previous run where close to Dee Bee Nine. 57kg looks solid today and has every chance.
Corvidae: Gone backwards the last two starts. Weighted poorly.
Flyingconi: Course and distance last start snuck the win. today down 1.5kg for that run and will be hitting the line hard from the back.
Nicholls Court: Ignore last start and look to previous runs this prep. Never run at track is an issue but can position further enough forward today to figure.
Sir Fernando: Hasn’t returned in winning order this prep.
Kneeling: Maps well enough today and won last two coming down from Queensland. Don’t dismiss this runner at all.
Henwood: A little disappointing last start at Flemington but back to Moonee Valley today. 0.5kg worse off against Flyingconi today.
Vicario: Last two runs have been huge. Big win last start and weighted to win today. Just needs the run.
Electric Shot: Good win two back and then last start average on heavy. Hard to see progression.
Our Nkwazi: Not good enough for this on previous form.
Signor Socks: Not good enough here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Vicario gets the nod to win the last at odds from Overtake and Nicholls Court.
Rosehill Race 6
Under The Sun is the stand out here. Beautiful win last start at course and similar distance from start to finish and should be hard to pass again today. First up Bayrir looks the main danger but is a question at the distance. Saver.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Under The Sun and Saver Bayrir.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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