We are back at Moonee Valley this week to see the mighty mare Black Caviar have what is expected to be her last ever run in Melbourne. I am up in Sydney for the day but will be flying back to be on track for the final 3 races of the night (So i will be off twitter for about 2 hours or so). This may be the only time we ever see Moonee Valley sold out for a a meeting that isn’t the Cox Plate. I am excited and you should be also! As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Can you predict how far Black Caviar will win by? Betfair is giving away $1000 per length she wins by. So if you guess 7.8 lengths, and you are the only one to guess that distance, you win $7800 straight into your account. If you are guessing anywhere between 3-5 lengths, I suspect many have guessed in those lengths, but spllitting $5000 100 ways still sounds like a good idea to me. Find out more at http://www.betfair.com.au/promotions/ and if you don’t already have a Betfair account, please join via our banner to the right. While there, check out the NRL/AFL enhanced doubles for the weekend!
Race 4 You’re So Good
Race 7 Champagne Shisha
Race 8 Fawkner to Place
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Good Ba Ba: Looks to be a horse not suited by the track due to having to go far back. Hard to see taking a place.
LuckyGray: Didn’t show much first up but will be sitting back the rail and hitting the line hard.
Spirit of Boom: Ran well two back but last start outclassed. Won’t be able to keep up with these today off weights.
Linton: Never run this distance previously and only won once first up. Hard to have.
Fawkner: Huge form last prep. The key for him here is running a 1.8L win in 1:20.9 which is super fast. Previous to that 4 back ran 1:22.8 4L win. Back to 1200m today but doesn’t look an issue going back the extra 200m. Can position 3rd either on the rail or behind Black Caviar (I know where I would rather be) and be hitting the line very hard! Overs for the favourite out markets/place.
Black Caviar: Can’t win. Haha sorry had to joke about it. She is an absolute champion. The only thing that COULD prevent her going 24/24 is missing the start big time, but even then she should win this.
Karuta Queen: Very solid run last start. If Canali franks form in earlier race, could be value for the place. Will be going forward and should be on the rails.
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6
Strategy: I took Fawkner in the Black Caviar out markets early on in the week at $11. You can still get the place at $8.40 on Betfair which to me is still overs. Just don’t go crazy here. I am including Fawkner in the Quaddie as every horse CAN break down or miss a start or have stuff go wrong.. and the payout would be massive.
Moonee Valley Race 1
You Think So: Thought last start was good enough to be winning here. Went back and should position further forward today off 60kg. The one to beat.
Thubiaan: Hard to see the progression even up to 3000m.
Rambert: Big win last start at Moonee Valley over Gotta Take Care. Big quesiton mark on if he has the quality here though.
Val Mondo: Not good enough on previous runs.
Gotta Take Care: Meets Rambert 2.5kg better off and will go better over 3000m. Never missed a place at distance. Only issue is whether the horse is here to win or simply wants the hurdles again.
Aggregator: Ignore two back run where didn’t get a run. Positioned more forward last start and ran a good 2nd. Can win.
Toranos: Brilliant move by Newitt last start and got the win. Looks suited today and progression. Only issue is if Boss can do the same..
Rilelilmag: Not good enough in tougher grade last start and worse off today against Rambert.
Knucklemanna: Hard to see this horse winning over these quality runners.
Strategy: Tough race to start the day with 4 or 5 runners with a chance. You Think So the one to beat, no doubt about it. May skip this.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Gotta Dream: Up in class from last start but has been super the last four runs. A close 2nd to Vittoria who won very well here last week looks the form to work around.
Jethro: Two strong runs and then just didn’t stay out the trip last start up in class. Hard to see a win here off 59kg (4kg up).
Bel Sir: Huge step up in class here. Just can’t see the win, but could surprise and place.
Fresh Light: Big win last start at course and distance. Up in class and up 1.5kg but will get an equally good run today from barrier 2.
Razor: Equal weights today with Gotta Dream. Won previous two runs before that. Will go close going forward here today.
Darwin: Hasn’t shown enough the last two starts to back here today.
Major Coup: Strong form last prep and seems to have come on well. Could be the run tonight.
Twin Soul: Didn’t show enough first up to suggest can win this today.
How Fairdinkum: Can run well today off last start.
Easton: Has some ok form lines but this looks a little hard.
Strategy: Another tough race with 3-4 chances. Fresh Light does look the one to beat, just hope Nolen doesn’t get trapped the rail as he could here.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Eximius: Strong form last start and back in class today. Did win over a talented horse who returned VERY WELL up in Sydney called Limes. Can try and push further forward than speed maps suggest and go close.
Underestimation: Hard to have this horse on last prep runs. Last win was nearly a year ago on Heavy.
Crystal Web: Huge win last start at Flemington. Is he looking for the straight or can he win here again? Big chance in my opinion, only issue will be how wide he goes around the corner.
Daytona Grey: Could get the run of the race from barrier 1 by sitting 1 back on the rails. Was very strong running 2L off Lonhspresso last start at Morphetville and a win certainly wouldn’t shock here.
Chosen Moment: Great win at course and distance two back in lesser company and ran on well enough last start at Caulfield. Only issue is up 2kg today.
Flamberge: Hard to see where he will speed map today. Most maps have him near the back today which won’t suit. Has the ability and 1kg better off today against Crystal Web, could be value.
If I Could: Progressive type who is being chucked in the deep end today. Looking for further.
Generalife: Speedmaps last as always misses the start. If starts well will go close.. always finds a way to get blocked. If money comes, follow.
Angelic Light: Not sure she could have done much more last start. 4kg better off today against Crystal Web and maps better as long as doesn’t get caught 3 wide.
Agueda: Will be trying to push forward speed maps suggest, but hasn’t the last two starts so hard to tell. Has ability but may not be up to this.
Moreau: Hard to see the progression but did show ability last prep.
Strategy: Going to be betting around the Flamberge, Crystal Web, Angelic Light form here today. Get the feeling worse off at the weights and none of them get a run that favours their styles. I would want to make sure Eximius looks fit in the yard. 1 Unit Eximius 0.75 units Daytona Grey and 0.3 units If I Could.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Alzora: Ran well enough last start to suggest can run on and go close here today. Speed maps suggest she can sit further forward today!
Kazanluk: 1kg better off today against Alzora but may get trapped the rails and need a bit of luck, still huge value off previous runs last start.
You’re So Good: 1kg better off today against Alzora two back and then ran 2nd to Ferlax next start. Clearly the only runner in the race who speedmaps to lead this up. Weighted to win.
Summerbliss: Will sit closer today but hard to back on last start run when up in class today against these.
Hai Lil: Just keeps running well. Beat Scarletini home two back who franked the form mid-week.
Swinging Soldier: Speed maps well and has been winning well in this class over in Adelaide this month. May have just been getting easier company it looks like.
Grand Daughter: Progressive type back down in distance today. Hard to see this much progression today though and may get 3 back the rail.
Lonhruge: Not good enough on last two runs.
Purple Muse: Maiden winner, too far up in grade even if she is a Moody runner.
Strategy: Big bet on You’re So Good.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Kulgrinda: Always runs well at this track and runs well first up. Off 58kg after claims, gets a bad position on the speed map. May somehow get caught 3 wide near the back and be pushed further back than they would hope. Still a chance.
Canali: Absolutely HUGE first up behind Avoid Lightning and then last start very unlucky getting blocked for a run. Down 2kg today to 56kg after claims and speed maps PERFECTLY to sit 1 out 1 back if jumps well.
Vatican: The Soldier put on a crazy stupid speed last start and set it up for Vatican who took a sit. This race has much more depth today and Vatican doesn’t get AS good a run today as last start. May be 3 back on the outside. Still a big hope.
Esprit De Bullet: Has won here previously. Weighted nicely today and won 3 of 6 first up. Bigggest issue is he needs luck from position.
The Soldier: Showed huge improvement last start running a very fast race. Down 1.5kg today compared to Vatican up 0.5kg thanks to claim… on that alone has a chance. May not get the front which hurts him.
Fab Fevola: Has the pace to start well and lead this from start to finish. Amazingly after running some big times, is down 5kg today. That is massive.
King Cotton: 1kg worse off today against Fab Fevola but does speed map well if gets some luck.
Weekend Special: Can’t back on previous runs.
Day Procedure: Love the horse and ShamExpress makes the form look very very strong. Down to 52kg today after claim but may not get in from barrier 11. Still a chance.
TheBarwonPrince: Not good enough.
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 10
Strategy: Very keen on Canali in this race. Will get the perfect run today. Fab Fevola weighted to win and can run any speed. Will be hard to pass. Finally, Can’t have Day Procedure on top due to the map, but can win if gets in and they don’t push the speed out front, so have to put a very small bet on as a saver.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Lights of Heaven: Hasn’t won in around 10 months. To be fair, did run 3rd in Caulfield Cup and 3rd in WFA-G2 level as well at Randwick. Has only ever won once at this distance but is 2nd up today. Needs to show a lot more today.
Spirit Song: Big run last start and weighted even better today. Speed map suggests she can either take a sit or sit outside the leader. Big chance.
Hi Belle: I believe this horse wasn’t suited by the long straight last start.. on a turning corner would have won by a length or two. Ready to win today.
Secret Liaison: Found one too good last start. Weighted to win again, only issue is maps poorly.
There’s Only One: Maps as one of the worst runners in the race, but you forgive last start run where injured during race, can win.
Bonaria: Got very lucky last start. Up 3kg today, can’t see winning with that turn around.
Gail: Outclassed last start at Flemington. Speed maps the worst of any horse here. Needs to have a wall of horses move out of the way.
Roccin Jo: Huge win for us last start at course and distance. This is a BIG step up but she certainly does speed map to win this. Big chance.
Fill The Page: May get suck 3 back the mails or may kick up and surprise us all. Has won in class and at distance, but off last start run needs to find 1-1.5 lengths today.
Tavarnelle: Speed maps very well here 2nd up. Was a very good win first up and will improve onwards.
Goldslick: Ran well enough last few runs but hard against it today on weights.
Family Crest: As long as jumps well, will go to the front and run and lead this all the way. Got run down last start but should be able to use this rail to win today.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 13
Strategy: Not very confident here. Just check how wide I am going in the quaddie.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Sea Skye: Been off 6 months and has won 2 from 3 at this distance. Runs well first up. Probably going too far back today.
Triple Tee: Maps very well for this race today. Just hasn’t been able to get a win for a long time. Never won first up, but has ability.
Tramuntana: Just keeps running well but not getting there. Equal weights today so not sure if he can win over Our Protocol.
Mecir: Has some very strong form likes down from Sydney. Can push up on the rails to sit behind the leader if plays his cards right. Big chance.
Dead End: Had a very off-on career. Has shown ability but geez it would be hard to back him today.
Don’t Wake Me: Slowly away last start at course and distance, up 2kg. Could get an ok run but hard to back here, never placed from 3 runs at track.
Our Protocol: Speedmaps to lead this up. Down 0.5kg today after claim and has the ability to win again.
Holy Heart: Hard to back on last prep form in city class, but was progressive and will be pushing forward.
City Of Song: A lot of merit in last start run here when blocked for runf rom back. Expect to sit a little further.
Too Deadly: Hard to see him making up the room required on speed maps, but if you ignore previous run, actually could.
Two Hills: Average form this prep. Hard to see a win in her here, but is down in class at least.
Champagne Shisha: Big win here last start. Down 1kg today and speed maps have her position way wrong. Will be hard to beat. Could even take the front.
Academy Jack: Big value here today if gets a run. Progressive enough to win this.
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 7, 12, 13
Strategy: Champagne Shisha on last start win and down 1kg today can take the lead and not be passed. Price looks great to me even if we have gone wide in the Quaddie here.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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