Welcome to The Profits form guide for Mornington on Wednesday 26 March 2014. Well last weekend was certainly a roller coaster ride. Friday was big but Saturday pretty much sucked. We got a few vibes and form to follow going forward at least and hopefully that serves us well. Today offers up some fields which have spewed out value to my eyes. Certainly not going large stake wise today, but two races tand out as solid betting races with two other value runners worth going small on. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
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I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Mornington Race 3
Keeping this one short and sweet. Favourite deserves to be just that today. Price is about right… but Easy to Look At is the horse who appeals at the odds. The run two back behind Hotel Sierra was eye catching. I think Newitt rides a similar style to Beriman and she got the best out of the horse. Doesn’t deserve to be the outsider here.
Strategy: Easy To Look At 0.5 units to place 0.25 units to win
Mornington Race 4
A few runners in this race who have been making their way up the ranks after their maiden wins while a few who have proven themselves at this grade and the prices seem a little our of wack.
We backed Waldorf last start due to being so well weighted at the valley and she got the job done.. just. Up 5.5kg today even after claims, she is giving up 4kg today to Sacred Dream who ran within 2 lengths. Sacred Dream ran 2.5L behind Sino Eagle at Flemington three runs back and has shown her best over further distances, with the up in distance run today suiting.
The one runner at the top of the weights today St Issey stands out here as a very progressive type who has turned this prep around. The win at Sale four back was the start of that, two back was luckless and a 2nd to Crucial is nothing to sneeze at. Only up 1.5kg here today she maps well enough to win today.
The other two considered as genuine chances in the market are Silk Diamonds and A Chiller. I think Silk Diamonds isn’t very well weighted in this level of competition today and there are better sprinters. A Chiller has progressed well enough to date and is ok weighted, but from barrier 9 won’t get as good a run as they would home and is a big questionmark up in this class with other types standing out more at the prices. I would just suggest Silk And Diamonds is much better weighted today than Silk And Diamonds compared to their meeting two back and deserves to be shorter than her.
Comments: Two stand outs at decent prices.
Strategy: Backing St Iseey to win for 1.25 units. 0.5 units on Sacred Dream to win.
Mornington Race 5
A fairly average race for mid-week with a R-64 at Mornington has caught my attention today.
Star Beauty is a horse who showed promise last prep at Caulfield and Flemington in harder class than this running within 1L and 0.2L’s of victory behind some handy horses. Showed enough on Heavy, Dead and Good to give me confidence she handles any track condition and off 55kg today, she will be coming form mid to back and Kah has the skills to get her home.
Went around first up over 1000m as $4.3 favourite at Moonee Valley and couldn’t have anything else more go wrong for her. Slowly away, lost a plate and was lame after the race. 16 days off the track, she should be all better and the price represents overs back in grade today.
Comments: Hard to pass up the $7.5 being offered in early markets.
Strategy: Star Beauty 2 units E/W
Mornington Race 8
Tough race to finish the day but one at odds stands out here.
Alfiler ran Angelology to within 1.5L in much harder company two runs back over a similar distance. There isn’t much if any speed in this race today and I expect he will be able to go ofrward from barrier 3 today and give this race a fair shake. Last win was in similar class over similar distance at Cranbourne this prep off a similar weight from out the front.
Not putting much on this bloke, but at the price offered up i’m happy to have a play.
Strategy: Alfiler 0.5 units to place 0.25 units to win.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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