Welcome to The Profits form guide for Oaks Day at Flemington on Thursday 7 November 2013. Girls day … or known to many as Boys day, brings some races with significantly higher confidence than Melbourne Cup day. There are certainly stand out runners in most races which just makes it a lot easier overall. Fingers crossed. I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 Surge Ahead
Next Best
Flemington Race 5 Freshwater Storm
Double Diamond
R4 Diamond Earth into R6 Gypsy Diamond Multibet.
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 3, 4
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3
Leg Three: 3, 5, 7, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Marmelo: Waller stable runner. Went close at Randwick first up in harder company and then won maiden last start. Likes a long straight and is a top chance. Weight only issue.
Brewing: Just ignore last start run and look to two back where won in a slow time. Doesn’t look good enough to me.
Mambo Lady: Start to finish win in maiden class last start. Didn’t beat much is the issue. How progressive is she?
La Veuve: Couldn’t win her maiden on a heavy ground when hampered at start then blocked for runs twice. Could be value.
Cardiac: Two runs in maiden class and couldn’t break through. Wasn’t the worst run last start though.
Chloe Anna: Four tries to break through at maiden this prep. Last start forgive on heavy. Does want the distance.
Moonlight Madica: Ran poorly first up in slow.
Savannah Moon: Went close last two runs in maiden before thrown in deep end and finished last. No thanks.
Gypsy Whisper: Doesn’t look good enough.
Comments: Only two real hopes in this.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Marmelo to win.
Flemington Race 2
Multilateral: Been running well up in Sydney but disappointed last start. Can go close.
Asclepius: Two runs back 4th to Salon Solider looks good but failed in the Sale Cup. Hard to see backing it up and winning here.
Upbeat: Form lines just not good enough for the win here today.
Mintaro: Progressive prep. Last start unlucky not to win at Caulfield when blocked for runs. Maps well enough and has everything in his favour.
Ominous: Not going well enough to win this on previous form.
Canonized: Ran on well last start at Moonee Valley when saving ground on the leader bias. Extra distance should suit but will need luck from barrier 2.
Bono Vox: Looking for further on previous runs. May run well though.
Name The Day: Ignore first up run when well backed. Came into Geelong with no heavy form and won very well. Paiges Boy then backed up that form as well. Step up once again but weighted well enough and has strong enough form lines.
Red Inca: Disappointing last start. Previous run was solid without impressing. Hard to see but has ability.
Adjuster: Like the horse but hasn’t been going well enough this prep.
Slade De Cerisy: Maiden winner over in France. Won first up in easier company… off the heavy and b ack to ground that suits (undefeated on Good). Can go close off 54kg if measures up.
Bashan: Good start to finish win last start, but isn’t going well enough to beat all of these home.
Comments:Three key runners here for mine in 1, 6, 12, 16
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Name The Day on top from Mintaro
Flemington Race 3
Metastasio: Too far back last start at MV. Back to a straight track today where has has won previously and then two back ran 1.8L 4th. Weighted well today.
Minaj: Up 1kg today after a strong start to finish win at Moonee Valley. Progressive type who wouldn’t shock if won again today.
Miss Streele: Strong 2YO form and ran well blocked for a run last start at Moonee Valley. Proven down the straight and down 1kg today.
RomancingTheStone: Ran of this horse. Down 1kg just like Miss Steele and first up this prep ran very well down the straight into 3rd. Will sit closer to the speed today in running than last start. Big hope.
Fare Well: Not good enough today on previous three runs.
More Than Faith: Beat home Kirramosa at last start behind Champagne Cash at Rosehill. Instead of progressing up the distances has been dropped back to 1200m. Interesting form lines but does look unders.
Sense Of Hite: Saved ground last start and down 1.5kg here today. Has progressed nicely this prep but this is a big step up again.
Melrose Place: Just simply too far back last start at course and over 1000m. Win wouldn’t shock.
Finalaregee: Only average the past 3 runs. Not in this league.
Sartorial: First up Bel Esprit runner. Mother was certainly nothing special. Market will guide.
Comments: 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 are the main hopes here. Not much splitting this bunch. I’m going to discount the MV race form and stick to the other two for a result.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Metastasio to win. Saver on More Than Faith.
Flemington Race 4
Diamond Earth: Huge run last start in WFA-G1 just 1L behind Buffering. Previous to that won up in Sydney at Randwick in this company. Plucky Belle ran second by 0.8L and won on Tuesday franking the form big time having beat Arinosa in that race. Big chance.
Lady of Harrods: Never placed at track and better over slightly further. Ignore last start but needs to find a lot.
Dystopia: Huge run last start just beaten by Arinosa. Last time down the straight here ran a 0.1L second in this exact race last year to Honey Flower and Anise was 3rd. Previous year in same race ran 4th. There is speed all throughout this field and she will have it run to suit. Massive chance.
Octavia: Never won here previously and better suited to a turning track.
Shamal Wind: Ran just ‘ok’ behind Fontelina. Weighted poorly today and needs to find a length or two today.
She Can Skate: Very disappointing run first up. Back down the straight where you know she is suited. Could surprise.
Honey Flower: Very poor run first up but did suffer lacerations. Won this class year.
Liesele: Big win first up when ridden for luck. WIn won’t shock but does need to improve to beat these.
Sumakaray: Got run over last start. Never placed at track.
Royal Bender: Not going well enough this prep to suggest the win.
Anise: Very disappointing run last start. Two back and theee back ran well enough. Meets Shamal Wind 5kg better off today. Chance due to weight.
The Long Road: Goes well first up and has won here previously.. but that wasn’t down the straight. No thanks.
Flash Of Doubt: Not going well enough to suggest the win today on previous form. Never placed here.
Tykook: Not good enough for this.
Anabaa’s Legacy: Ran well enough first up but not going to match these.
You Can Dance: Disappointing end to last prep. Goes well enough first up. A small chance.
Comments: Three main chances for mine. Diamond Earth is a horse who has been set for this race. Is a very progressive type and I have loads of time for her. Dystopia will be going close and the speed will be on. You know she is also set for this race and handles the straight. Anise is simply weighted to go close.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Diamond Earth on top from Dystopia.
Flemington Race 5
Black Cash: Tough weight once again today. Pulled up with Thumps last start when ran 4th as $2 favourite. Progressive type who can go well.
Dash For Viz: Looks over the odds today. Weight is a little high but based on two back run and last prep, can go close.
Freshwater Storm: Huge win last start at Caulfield beating home Specter by more than 2 lengths. has won in class previously and runs very well at distance. Looks to be suited by track as well.
Grey Monarch: Not good enough.
Members Joy: Always runs well at track. Last start run was very solid at Caulfield when nothing was making up ground. Big chance here.
Secret Toy Bizness: Strong win last start but barrier 19 is a real issue. Not sure if she is this good.
Footy Fan: Won 3 of last 5 and came 2nd in the other two. Progressing through the grades. Down 4.5kg today. Barrier 2 and will be getting the front run. Big chance.
Misty Eyes: Not going well enough.
Dance For Cash: Doesn’t look good enough based on two back run behind Freshwater Storm. Ruins the MV form line for sure.
Dash Divine: Nice horse but not good enough.
Invincible Lady: Been running well recently but this good? Not so sure.
La Pupee: Will be attempting to go forward. Not good enough on recent runs.
Parishon: FInished last start with a Caulfield Win. Never placed at this distance or at the track.
Smoken Cash: Not the worst going around today but needs to improve again to win this.
High Kingczar: Ran well last start but wasn’t good enough. Not winning this unless huge improvement.
Fourdays of Mylife: Not going well enough to win this. Needs it more wet for this class.
Comments: Grey race is generally fairly open but there are quite a few below par this year. The top four in no order are Dash For Viz, Freshwater Storm, Members Joy and Footy Fan.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Freshwater Storm on top from Footy Fan.
Flemington Race 6
May’s Dream: Hot tempo set last start by what can be described a pace maker. They went early and I’m not so sure they will be let go until the top of the straight at very minimum. Shouldn be closer to favourite for the race than she is. A big chance again.
Arabian Gold: Ran on well without threatening. Should position out the front today and if can control the pace, will be able to run well. Meets May’s Dream and Kirramosa 1kg better off today.
Kirramosa: Jumped around the $11s and won very well. Will go back again today from barrier 10 and will be hitting the line hard. Looks rock bottom odds.
Gypsy Diamond: Down 1kg today which makes her 2.5kg better off today against the two favourites and 1.5kg against Arabian Gold. Showed huge improvement over the 2000m and that run suggests wants the 2500m. Weighted very well and will position further forward today. Blow out chance.
Solicit: Weighted poorly today equal with May + Kirra while Arabian Gold meets 1kg better today and Gypsy 2.5kg. Will be leading with Arabian Gold most speed maps suggest so if they run it out the front slowly, then is in with a small chance.
Quayside: A massive throw at the stumps. Didn’t measure up at 2 and then only won a fairly average race last start. Probably has been trained on for this but this is a massive step up.
Every Faith: Weighted poorly toda. Hard to see progression to win this.
Zanbagh: Form is sub-par. Last start only won a 2000m on Heavy. No thanks.
Melaleuca: Ran poorly last start. Weighted poorly today.
Tear Gas: Didn’t show much last start. Maiden only winner.
Comments: Top 5 in the market are the key runners. The pace of this race will determine the winner. It isn’t a very clear cut race and the weight differences are BIG here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4
Strategy: Gypsy Diamond on top from Kirramosa.
Flemington Race 7
Le Mans: Strong form lines behind Paximadia and Hucklebuck the last two runs. Equal class and up 3kg is a little harsh.. but looks one of the key hopes today. Distance should suit.
Surge Ahead: Two runs back beat home Bernabeu when slowly away and was in VERY fast time. Bernabeu won VERY well. Has gone up to 1800m instead of back to 1000m like Bernabeu did… but the Cummings yard know what their doing. Huge chance here with Oliver on.
Gallatin: Only won a maiden.. but was in a decent time. Can go well. Should be closer to $5 than $2.
Sasenkile: First up run was ok then stepped up to 1600m and won well but was a very easy race. Big step up.
Sanosuke: Didn’t measure up last start and hard to see producting anything better this run.
Silent Saga: Only just won a maiden last start by 0.1L. Not thinking it will measure up.
Sudden Moment: Took 5 runs to win the maiden in a very easy race on slow. Much harder today.
Gravitational: Won a maiden this prep then not been within 5 lengths. No thanks.
Empire Rock: Non-winner who hasn’t gotten within 2.5 lengths of a win.
Kincaple Chief: Non-winner who couldn’t win previous four attempts at maiden this prep.
Pompeius: Non-winner who couldn’t get close last start.
Stack The Truck: Non-winner who doesn’t have much form.
Comments: Only two clear chances for mine here. Very happy to take on the fav.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3
Strategy: Surge Ahead on top from Le Mans.
Flemington Race 8
Canali: Never won at track which is a massive concern…. but he is absolutely flying. Weight is a little harsh but you certainly can’t count him out.
Freereturn: A very good horse at his peak. Ran on well enough last start. Loves the distance.
Snitzerland: A group horse winner. Won down the straight previously. Just ignore first up run when had poor post-race recovery. Goes very well 2nd up. The one to beat.
Undeniably: Hasn’t turned it around this prep. Hard to see on current form.
Planet Voyage: Won 3 races last prep. Most importantly went closer all 3 last tries down the straight. Up in weight but runs well first up. A clear chance.
Magnus Reign: Ran on well first up to beat home Like Bolt who ran home for 4th this week. Going well enough but needs to improve.
Delago Bolt: Been all over the country this prep going close in group races. Weighted to go very close today.
Safeguard: Up in class today but back to a distance where he is undefeated. Goes very well down the straight and looks one of the best here. Form lines are all solid.
Lankan Rupee: Looks unders in the race considering never won from 3 chances here and others look more progressive.
Rifleman: Good horse, not this class though.
Hadronica: Not going well enough on last two runs.
Halle Rocks: Big step up. Not suited by this level of classy race.
Nicholls Court: Have a big opinion of this horse but 8 tries and never won at track. Does go well down the straight.
Subiaso: Not good enough.
Comments: Several chances in this race but the Quaddie numbers pretty much cover the majority of them. Very classy race.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 7, 9
Strategy: Safeguard on top from Snitzerland
Flemington Race 9
Lord Durante: Last two starts has been very unlucky blocked for runs. Comes into this as a top hope and from barrier 16, there seems to be no issue with him getting stuck on the rails today. Alot of speed and will be hard to get a good spot from wide barrier is the issue.
Devised: Two back ran very well in the Grafton Cup and then last start again behind That’s a Good Idea. Needs to improve again though.
Espirit Rossa: Won two of last three runs and 0.1L 2nd in the other. Last start in equal class was very brave coming home late and just pinched it. Can go close again here.
Me Hungi: Last start was a good run but this is MUCh harder today. Not sure he gets past all of these at weights.
Hinchley Wood: Good win from the back last start but will have to get passed an even bigger wall of horses today. Is he really good enough?
Pro Tour: A talented and progressive gelding who could blow this lot away if produces what we expect could be shown. Weighted very well and back down in class today. Huge chance and maps well.
King’s A Star: Very poor this prep. Can’t see it.
Leveraction: Ran well enough last start but a few were better. Wide barrier hurts.
Savitar: Hard to see measuring up in this class.
Murdoch’s Joy: Ran and won well two back then last start easily beaten.
Paige’s Boy: Big win last start at MV coming from off the speed. Ran well behind Name The Day the race before. Comes into this with progression. Never missed a place at this distance and mapped well.
Backstedt: Never placed 2nd up before but has won twice at this distance and placed twice at track. Weighted nicely. Needs to improve from first up to go well here.
Lingo: Huge improvement last start but seems to have been on the heavy.
Initiator: Ran ok last start but not this class. Needs to improve.
Mightiest: Can’t see passing every one of these runners.
Spectral Black: Not good enough on recent form.
Set To Star: Not good enough on current form.
Comments: Tough way to finish the way. Hopefully no blowouts!
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 11
Strategy: Pro Tour to win from Esprit Rossa
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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