Welcome to The Profits form guide for Randwick and Bendigo. I will be on track at Randwick all day so i will certainly be an interesting day! The fields certainly look tough but there is always an edge to be had. Just a follow-up on our best bet last night who got run down in the final 20m at $6.5, the horse pulled up lame! Big run. The form for Bendigo is quick and dirty this week as I’m working on a laptop that has be typing at about 60 words per minute not the normal 100+ and form took a lot longer than expected for Randwick (never a bad thing to spend more time researching). The Big 6 looks to be juicy today at Randwick. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Randwick Race 3 Opinion
This horse is absolutely quality. Unlucky in the Spring with a slipped saddle preventing him getting a deserved win at Flemington which I am sure he would have won with ease. First up was just a forgive run and last start he showed he means business. Extra distance today, only giving a few kgs to the horses he beat by lengths and he will have even more in store today. He just looks a class above all of these and the price represents value. Should be Under $2s.
Randwick Race 7 Bull Point
Some of you may remember Bull Point was our lay of the day as favourite in his last start in WFA-G1 class down in Melbourne. It’s rare a horse will make that step up and he ran well without placing. To go that close in that class proved he is genuine and a horse we can follow foward. The price today is way over what I was expecting and he maps to have a very good run… whether they take a sit off he speed or notice that the track is suiting swoopers and decide to not spend too much energy early and settle midfieldish… he has it all and frankly, that is what you need to consistently win in this class.
Best at Bendigo
Bendigo Race 2 Laohu
We continue to back this horse and it continues to pay off. Back in distance by 100m today and down significantly in the weights, there isn’t much speed in the race and with the rail expected to have a slight bias early on, the price we are getting is over the correct odds it should be!
Value runners on the card today
Randwick Race Race 4 Danesiri
Randwick Race Race 5 Bel Sprinter
Randwick Race Race 8 Streama
Bendigo Race 7 Mourinho
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 12, 13
If you back a horse in the Randwick Guineas (Race 7) and run 2nd, your bet will be refunded to a maximum of $100 (first bet only)
Money back if your horse runs 2nd to a Chris Waller trained horse at Randwick on Randwick Guineas Day. (Maximum payout $100 per race). Worth noting Waller has several runners but only in two races all day!
If your horse runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Randwick Guineas, Ladbrokes will return your stake as a bonus bet up to $50
If your horse runs 2nd to Zoustar in the Canterbury Stakes, you will get your stake back as a bonus bet up to $50
Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
1. Guineas Gift – Money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the Randwick Guineas! (Max Stake $50! – Tote Extra product)
2. Waller Waller Bing Bang :- Get your money back if your selection in the Canterbury Stakes runs 2nd to Zoustar. (Max Stake $25 – Tote Extra product).
3. Guineas Day Quaddie :- Get a 25% boost on your quaddie winnings at Randwick (Maximum bonus of $200)
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Randwick Guineas? Money back up to $100!!!
Money back for 2nd or 3rd in all Sydney Group Ones this Autumn Carnival (max back up to $100) – *Must be 8 starters in race, only applies to your first Fixed Odds bet in race*
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 1
Gold Force: Slow times but ran very well to win the very pricey race. The track didn’t seem to playing as well that late for front runners but got a peach of a ride to win well. Comes into this race very well and from barrier 3 can lead or even take a sit today (id prefer that)
Modoc: Didn’t get close to Gold Force two back and then failed at Rosehill on slow. Wants it good today IMO. Can’t have.
Valentia: Ran well last start to get the win at course and distance over what appears to me to be an only average bunch. Can win
Time For War: Front to finish winner first up in similar grade of race. Spelled for months and back today. Looks a good horse and can improve again today
Giuliani: Unlucky 2nd to Unencumbered first run and then spelled. Back today better than ever but does look slightly under the odds with bigger goals this prep expecting him to train on more later into prep.
Zizumba: No luck first up and I thought he ran very well. Barrier 4 and will get a better position today, expecting him to take another step today. Is he this good though?
Rembrandt: Raced Greeny and slow away first up. Barrier 2 will be closer to pace today but looks outclassed.
Mr Bogart: Green first up but can’t have today off that run.
Comments: Tough way to start the day in Sydney.
Strategy: Gold Force to win. Lesser bet on Time For War.
Randwick Race 2
Press Report: Ran home well enough first up on slow taking the sneaky way home. Looks to have ability but I suspect not this good on what i have seen.
Occitan: Good win first up last prep and then no real excuses 2nd up.. but may just need sting out. Gets that today and rates well from barrier 3.
Tetsuko: A 0.2L 2nd to Alpha Miss looks solid form from last prep and snuck in for a win first up in maiden class. This is much harder.
Twirl: Ran into two very good horses this prep and can be forgiven for not having a win yet. This field is much easier today. Barrier the issue.
Believe Yourself: Won well enough in maiden company first up. Could place but not sure good enough to win this. Barrier helps alot.
Puzzle: Well backed first up runner who couldn’t get the win but got beaten by a good horse in Nayeli. Watch to see if the money comes to have confidence to back her.
Miss Interiors: First up runner for Cummings with Oliver on board. Average trial.
Ofcourse She Does: I thought she showed a bit in her trial first up and am surprised by the price today. Worth a 5er.
Stratical: Nice trial out wide today. Take note if money comes.
Comments: Quite a few contenders here today but Twirl does stand out. Occitan does look a good E/W chance also.
Strategy: Twirl to win. Much smaller bet Occitan.
Randwick Race 3
Bayrir: Ran only fairly last start against these runners today. 2.5kg better off against Opinion but even so may find i hard to overcome the difference.
Opinion: Showed that he is flying last start with a big odds win. Won’t get a slow track today but that shouldn’t matter as there should be enough sting out of the track. Up in weight but deserves it. Can repeat that win again today.
Tremec: Showed nothing last prep or first up. No thanks.
The Offer: First up run very disappointing all things considered. Massive step up in lass today and I can’t see it.
Junoob: 2kg better off today against Opinion but has to make up 3 lengths. A less wet track should suit him but he goes well in either condition. Longer straight suits.
Margins: Only average first two runs this prep. Up to a better distance today and looks a solid place chance at odds.
Vaquera: Didn’t measure up last start behind Junoob and 1.5kg worse off today at weights. Looks way under the odds and could be a solid place lay.
Comments: Two horse race.
Strategy: Opinion to win
Randwick Race 4
Capital Commander: First up run was average at best. Similar class here and top of the weights. Hard to suggest so much improvement today. Others fitter.
Pretty Pins: Two runs this prep have been very poor. Way up in weight here. Hard t have.
Any Day Will Do: Run well all 3 runs this prep. Weighted well enough to win this today and you have to remember how good Catkins is and last start wasn’t suited on slow. Barrier 1 maps well.
Lucky Lago: 2L off Red Tracer first up and up to 1600m today. Looks very well suited here.
Express Power: Ran very well 2nd up and even though she is up 2.5kg here today, looks well suited from barrier 2. Can run well.
Porcellanus: Average last prep but did run an ok 3rd 2nd up. Hard to have here first up.
Transonic: Didn’t measure up last start and this is a huge jump again and poor barrier.
Diamond Drille: First two runs this prep haven’t been close to what she showed last prep. I can’t have here.
Knead The Dough: Thought she was good enough two back out the front but way outclassed here at weights.
Danesiri: Showed class last start in similar grade up in Queensland behind a decent horse in Mishani Warrior. Can go close from positive barrier today.
Forever Loved: Did a bit wrong last start but won well. Weighted well today and is a slight hope.
Intimate Moment: Done nothing wrong this prep at all. Continues to make her way through the grades. Hardest test yet today though.
Mahara: Just got in last start at course over a much easier bunch. Expect a few to be too good here.
Comments: Tough race with 5-6 chances.
Strategy: Lucky Lago to win. Smaller bet on Danesiri who is a huge price today.
Randwick Race 5
Buffering: The Buff! Back to his best last prep. Shamexpress and Moment of Change claimed Group races once he went for a spell also. Goes well first up and goes well at the track. Barrier 3 means he won’t have to be used up to get to the front either.
Bel Sprinter: Disappointing first up. Ran much better 2nd up last prep and seems to go better the Sydney way? How many chances can we give him? Probably his last today.
Famous Seamus: Ran a very solid 3rd to Lankan Rupee and then close in Group 3 off 60kg last prep. Only goes fairly first up is a massive issue but form lines suggest if returns at best can run well.
Sessions: First up today and has won 3 from 4 fresh. Last prep jus continued to not be able to pass Buffering and is fairly caty. Must find 1L today to win this.
Temple of Boom: Couldn’t match it last prep with the best of them and fresh today should be running home well but doubt he passes the best ones here.
Tiger Tees: Returned to his form of old and best form first up this prep with a brave win over Adebisi. This is much harder though.
Snitzerland: The danger to the Buff today. If we judge how close Shamexpress went to Buff last pre then these two are neck and neck on form. Will have the fitness edge today.
Satin Shoes: Like the horse but hard to see her measuring up here toda first up. Two back win was good but not in this class.
Whittington: This is the horse who has the most progression going into the race. The only run and win last prep at Gold Coast was huge in a very fast time. Could measure up.
Villa Verde: I like her but she isn’t this good.
Comments: Doesn’t take a genius to figure out Buffering and Snitzerland are the ones to beat. Bel Sprinter looks the one who could run them down at his best. I’m willing to be against Buffering today due to being first up and 1000m not 1200m. He can still win and is about the right odds, but I feel Snitz has the fitness edge at this distance.
Strategy: Snitzerland to win. Lesser bet on Bel Sprinter.
Randwick Race 6
Aerobatics: Hasn’t gone well first up in a while now. Did win in this class last prep at Caulfield. Not sure good enough today though.
Liliburlero: VERY solid win first up at course and distance in a fast 1:08.8 on a dead track. Wow. No fitness queries with this runner! Looks to have taken the extra step. Barrier 1 as long as doesn’t get stuck for a run, looks the one to beat.
Avoid Lightning: Last prep failed to improve onwards and couldn’t place in all 3 runs but they weren’t horrible. I couldn’t have here first up.
Pentasia: Poor post race recovery first up when showed absolutely nothing. More than a month off, have to expect she can run well today.
A Time For Julia: Based off the way she ran home last start and the first up win, she will run well today and be hard to beat. Barrier 12 a massive concern though for mine and will have t work hard to get a positive position.
Emmalene: Ran home massively last start of last prep. Rum was huge and eye-catching. Could bne hitting the line very hard today with speed expected to be on.
Meliora: Has super-star potential but last prep didn’t show it. The speed in the race today… i thought she had genuine claims today.
Recoinage: Run behind Lilliburlero last start was nice, but only gains 1kg on her today and won’t be any more positive today.
Single Style: Very poor first up. Hard to suggest she could place.
Angel Bee: Good win first up coming around them wide. Will have improved on today and ca’t be dismissed. Barrier 2 makes it a little tricky though as may get stuck rail 3-4 back.
Gamba: Didn’t run well at all first up. Enough improvement today? I doubt it.
Zauberflote: 2.8L 3rd when pulling up lame post race with Lacerations, probably a better run than we gve her credit last start. Will be well back from barrier though and not sure she is weighted well enough to win this.
Holy Delusions: Poorly weighted today. Very poorly.
Comments: Wide open race this one. Lilliburlero is a good E/W price today but there is generally 6 chances at least.
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11
Strategy: Lilliburlero E/W. Small win bet Meliora.
Randwick Race 7
Dissident: Brave win last start with El Roca not competing. Back to a less wet surface today but should still be suited. Barrier does hurt today to get a forward position, but he does jump well enough.
El Roca: Brace Group 3 2nd to Terravista and is back in 3YO class today where he is suited. Barrier makes things a little tricky but doesn’t seem to have issues jumping well. Can win and probably the one to beat.
Criterion: Screamed home late at Flemington off what was only a fairly run race… so it was a really good run by him. I would suggest he is peaking today and a little sting out of the ground could be what s required to win today. Goes well the Sydney way as well.
Atlante: New Zealanders hardly ever win in very good class first up in Aus but he nearly did! 3-GP1 winner over in NZ two runs back, the step up to 1600m can only help today. From barrier 5 today, 2nd up, I could see them trying to lead this one all the way… but I think he isn’t that good and to win needs to take a sit.
Eurozone: Don’t be upset with the effort last start. It was solid, but he just didn’t stay it out. Fitness issue? Either way, barrier 4 today means he wll be in striking distance here.
Savvy Nature: Flashed home late last start. Extra 200m will suit today on a long straight but I expect he is wanting 2000m and beyond.
Bull Point: Don’t sack him for the 1.3L run behind Moment of Change. I made a big deal of his bubble being burst that day, only because they sent him off $2.40 favourite first up in WFA-G1 from 3YO class. He was never winning. Back down to this class today. Tricky barrier but that can be overcome and D Oliver on board… looks suited.
Romantic Touch: He really disappointed us last start. Ended up with Lacerations… but shouldn’t have been made to lead. From 15 today will go back and be flashing home. Don’t fully discount.
Woodbine: Didn’t measure up, as expected, last start against Dissident and a few others. Less wet track today and he will probably run better. Average barrier draw today.
Koroibete: Only finished off the race fairly. I’m not sure I can rate him a chance to beat all of these home.
Hooked: Hasn’t returned the same horse this prep. Probably just wanting to be back to the 2000m and won’t get it today.
Ternado: Barrier 1 hurts his chances today, but they could try push a little further forward today? No idea. Good horse but just doesn’t get there every time.
Show the World: Proved he was quality over in NZ last prep but is this too short? I think so. Happy to be against NZ runner first up in Aus!
Tupac Amaru: Good horse on his day, not in this class.
Singing Flame: Maiden only winner who hasn’t measured up in this class previously. No thanks.
Comments: I’m Bullish about Bull point today. I think he is suited big time today. Criterion the other one I like at odds.
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Strategy: Bull Point E/W. Smaller bet Criterion.
Randwick Race 8
My Kingdom of Fife: It’s great to see him back after nearly 3 years off after injury. I thought he was a genuine cup contender but it wasn’t to be. He won’t be winning today but how many horses can you say have won 3 from 3 at randwick which include a WFA-G1? Not many. I want to see him hitting the line well… and will be backing over 1600m next start (already on futures at 101s).
Sacred Falls: A win eluded this classy runner last prep. He might need a heavy track again! Showed his best over 1600m but has won enough around this distance. Will be well back but running home well. Don’t fully dismiss but this isn’t the main goal.
Toydini: Good horse, but not a GREAT horse just yet. Best has been shown over further. Expect to see him finish it off well late but won’t be winning.
Speediness: Has been running well this prep and improved last start to get closer to Appearance than previous start. Still has to find 2 lengths.
Rain Affair: Beyond poor first up. Not sure what to make of him. Suggest he is now over the odds all things considered.
Appearance: Two runs and two impressive WFA-G2 wins this prep. Can continue and make that a 3rd today.
Streama: Beyond poor and flat first up. Unlike Streama but the horse has never won first up (crazy right) but has won 3 from 6 2nd up. Expect a Much better performance today back on better ground and an extra 100m on a track she as won 4 from 7. Looks over the odds.
Red Tracer: First up run win did it easy. This is a much harder group. Expected to make her mark this prep.
Zoustar: Is he a superstar or was he just beating his own age grade? Is he vulnerable first up? Last prep first up he was beaten over 1200m and then progressed from there. Showed his best at this track is the key, but the sectonals could be matched by a few here today. Stepping up and only getting 1kg off a Red Tracer, Appearance etc looks very hard.
Not Listenin’tome: Put his foot down first up winning with ease. Key is that he wasn’t ridden out either. The group behind were averageish bunch with 1 good one, but this is certainly much arder, no doubt. I expect him to get a sit behind something like Red Tracer and to be there competing at the finish.
Comments: I came into this race expecting to oppose all the 3YOs but I just have no reason to oppose Not Listenin’toMe apart from it having a hard to type name! Everything works out and in a race where there are many promos, the one where running 2nd to any Waller runner, it works out well for him here also. I have a feeling Apperance has peaked while Red Tracer will be peaking today and I want to be on her also.
Quaddie Leg Three: 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Not Listenin’tome to win. Lesser sized bet Red Tracer.
Randwick Race 9
Sidestep: Proved he was good at 2 but hasn’t exactly continued on with it. 2L 4th to Zoustar is good form but he has never won first up, andlast prep never ran a place. Top weight today…have to be going very well to win today.
Boss Lane: Can you keep forgiving this guy? Does stuff wrong. Should have gone much closer last start IMO to win this.
Everage: First up run was very poor from a positive position. Hard to see the improvement to win this today.
Open Book: Progressed well lat prep and looks promising. Have to work hard early from outside to get a good position is an issue.
Diamond Oasis: Shot home well but it was all over. Meets Cosmic 2kg better off today and back to a better track, but certainly has to improve again.
Cosmic Cameo: First up runner who ended prep not being able to win a BM-75. Not for me.
Polarmore: First up run was very poor. Have to see the improvement today to win this.
Mon Gateau: Forgive run last start Lacerations. Probably still outclassed today but Oliver riding is always something to note.
Maysoon: Ever chance last start but not good enough. Probably go better today on better track but too much to make up lengths wise.
Cosmic Endeavour: On the first up run delivered, looks the class runner of this race. Keeps a fairly good weight today all things considered… barrier 7 means no issues getting a forward position. Rates to win.
Shamalia: Forgive last start at Caulfield when led. Not in her pattern previously. Look t two back when took a sit which she will today. Could surprise a few. Times are sound.
Flight Academy: First up run was ‘ok’ with out impressing. Needs to find a good 2 lengths at least to compete today.
Glenbawn Dame: Maiden only winner. No thanks.
Comments: Very keen on Cosmic Endeavour to notch up another win. Sidestep should go well also.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 12, 13
Strategy: Cosmic Endeavour to win. Lesser bet on Sidestep.
Bendigo Race 2
I’m happy to back Laohu again today at this price. Maps to be able to control the speed out the front off 53.5kg, will be very hard to pass and the key for mine is back to 1300m today!
Strategy: Back Laohu to WIN
Bendigo Race 6
An interesting race with quite a few different form lines. Spirt Song is an old favourite but I can’t have her here first up today.
The two runners I want to be around are Hazard and Sino Eagle.
Hazard was huge last start and 3rd up in equal class today, he is weighted to win this and should get the tempo required.
Sino Eagle continues to run well. Hopefully they go back to taking a sit today and if they do, she will be there at the finish.
Strategy: 1.5 units Hazard 1 unit Sino Eagle
Bendigo Race 7
A tough race with various form including 3 first up international runners.
Mourinho stands out here after that first up run where he flew home to almost beat Mouro. Could sit further forward today and looks well in.
Eraset is just a forgive run last start and is weighted to win today from barrier 4. Massive overs!
Of the internationals, Ancient King is the one who has been proven at the 1600m trip and goes well on any surface so looks the main threat.
Strategy: 1 unit Mourinho to win. 1 unit Eraset to win.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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