Welcome to The Profits form guide for The Championships Day 2 at Randwick and Caulfield on 19 April 2014. Well how great was last week. We were on fire. That is certainly an effort that is hard to back up from, but we have put in the extra efforts this week to try and achieve a similar result. The races today don’t put up as many betting propositions as last week IMO, but there are 3-5 races I want to get involved in depending on track condition. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
*Form is based on a suggested Slow 7 track that could downgrade to Slow 6. I will be back online around 9am to adjust form to track conditions and bets may change accordingly*.
Sydney Best Bet
Randwick Race 8 Silent Achiever
SA has been amazing all prep. I was a hater last prep but SA has proven to be one of the best horses going around in Australia right now. Last start was a great win and should continue on with it today. The price is simply would. SA should be the favourite here, but the money has come big time for the main and from my thoughts, only threat in It’s a Dundeel. A bet on SA and a saver on Dundeel looks a very solid way to tackle this race. Shop around for the best promo or read further down in our promos section and you will find almost every bookie offering money back offers for this race. So much value today for this race with these offers, it’s crazy.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 River Delta
The class runner of the race, well in at the weights and I can’t see any of the horses she previously raced beating her today. I also can’t see any other horse new to her form lines good enough here either. Price looks perfect.
Sydney NEXT Best Bet
Randwick Race 5 Catkins
The cat continues to impress and has gone to the next level this prep. On the other hand, 2nd favourite Red Tracer has been fairly disappointing and hasn’t been at the top of her game. There are one or two other threats in the race and at the prices, I am very happy to put Catkins up as the Next Best of the day. The price is over the correct odds and I feel she wins again today.
Melbourne NEXT Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 Natuzzi
NZ Runner who won well first up in Aus on a ground that didn’t really suit. This prep has run a 0.3L 2nd in Group 1 company over there after being blocked. Will position close to the back today but will be swooping late hitting the line very hard. Price looks well over the correct odds today.
Sydney Best Each-Way All Day
Randwick Race 4 Bounding
Those who follow my tips and twitter weekly will know I hate New Zealand runners first up in Australia, they rarely ever win, especially in Saturday grade… but Bounding is a genuine star. Having won a Group 1 this prep over in NZ, this looks to be a step back in class today in a race I feel has only three main chances. We are getting a little more than E/W odds and I’m very happy to be on Bounding here.
Melbourne Best Each-Way All Day
Caulfield Race 8 Unanimously
Super impressive first up flashing home behind Platelet at Moonee Valley. Missed the start that day and if jumps well today should be in a more positive position. Absolutely flashed home and is screaming for this extra distance today. Can still win from the back as well.
Other value runners on the card today
Randwick Race 7 Opinion
Randwick Race 2 Riocetto
Randwick Race 3 Sultry Feeling
Caulfield Race 6 Adamantium
Caulfield Race 5 Search Squad
Caulfield Race 5 Excellent Flight
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 12
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6, 12, 15, 20
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 17
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 10, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11
If your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Sportsbet will refund your bet! (max $100, applies to your first bet on the race)
Big offer again today!
Money back if your horse runs 2nd in all 9 races at Randwick (Maximum $100 refund per race – only your first bet in any race)
Money back for 2nd or 3rd in all Sydney Group Ones this Autumn Carnival (max back up to $100) – *Must be 8 starters in race, only applies to your first Fixed Odds bet in race*
Races covered this week up at Randwick are:
Queen Of The Turf Stakes
AJC Australian Oaks
AJC Queen Elizabeth Stakes
The Offer at $4 to win the Sydney Cup. Available to the first 1000 customers.
Paying out Best Tote or SP + 30% on the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Valid up to $100).
The Offer at $4 to win the Sydney Cup. Available to the first 1000 customers.
Free bet if 2nd to the SP Favourite in Races 1 & 2 – up to $50
Get a 20% Bonus on The Offer in the Sydney Cup and/or Carlton House in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
Queen Elizabeth Refund – Money back if your horse runs second or third in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes ($50 Max Stake on first Best of Five bet only)
Randwick Quaddie Boost – Get a 25% boost on your quaddie winnings at Royal Randwick (Max boost $200)
Eyes On The Tri’s – Get a 25% trifecta boost across the card (Max boost $100)
Lucky for Lucia – Money back if your horse runs second or third to Lucia Valentina in the ATC Oaks ($25 Max Stake on first Best of Five bet only)
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes? Money back up to $100 (first bet only in each race)!
Carlton House Royal Refund: Back the Queen’s horse Carlton House with Fixed Odds Win bet and if he finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th, you get a bonus bet equal to your stake, up to $50
Run 2nd, 3rd or 4th or 5th in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes? Get your money back up to $50 (Tom’s Div win bets only – Max $50)
Place a Bookies Best +20% bet on Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick and Luxbet guarantee you’ll get 20% more than the best price of Sportsbet’s Top Tote Plus, Tom Waterhouse’s Tom’s Div or Sportingbet’s Best Tote Plus.
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 1
I’ve stayed out of these races all year and I continue to do so. Not enough wet track form to make an informed decision. Veuvelicious would prefer it slow today and so would Cyclone. Gouldian looks to be the one wanting heavy.
Strategy: Stay Out!
Randwick Race 2
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Ran home well last start on Heavy but probably better suited by a dryer track than that start today. Should improve from that run and looks a big chance here today.
Boss Lane: Poor very poor last start and also run before. Much better weighted than Fast N Rocking but has to make up 2 lengths. Hard to have with confidence.
Woodbine: Blocked for runs last start when looming well. Back to a wet track today, last run was 1.8L 4th to Dissident which is good enough form here down 1.5kg. Can run well.
Engagement: Won three in a row walking her way through the grades but this is a big step up again today. Not very well weighted and no form on wet.. hard to suggest she wins but will run well.
Beauty’s Beast: Won 3 of last 4 over in NZ including two races in ‘similar’ grade. Both runs were fairly impressive time wise from out the front. No runs on such a track as today but positive signs and a good weight today.
Riocetto: Only win ever was on a Heavy track in 2YO-LR by 4.8L… but after that nothing. Looks a blowout chance at odds. Worth a spec.
Papillon Rouge: Good start to finish win last start but MUCH easier class than this. Goes ok on slow but I can’t see a win here.
Spy Decoder: Ran home very well last start for a win. Could be a surprise packet today.
Longma: Hard to see improving enough to win this today on previous form.
Comments: Very tough race. Not exactly keen on any here.
Strategy: Beauty’s Beast E/W.
Randwick Race 3
Oakleigh Girl: Handled the Heavy ‘ok’ last start in the Slipper and ran a respectable 6th. Up 2.5kg here today rates well from Barrier 2. Could lead or could even take a sit like two back when was a big run. Can win.
Clifton Red: Ran home well enough last start behind Bring Me The Maid and did get blocked at one stage. Expect a better showing today.
Eloping: Ran well enough in the Slipper. Up 0.5kg today and should run a good race again today from out the front. Minor chance.
Memorial: Ran home well from out the back in the Slipper. Many are suggesting it was the run of the race and she should have won, but they were also the ones with money on her. Was a good run, no doubt. Big chance today no doubt.
Ygritte: 1L 2nd to Mossfun two runs back and then hit $1.01 at Flemington being run down by Clifton Red. Meets Clifton Red 2kg better off at weights today and handles wet tracks. Sneaky chance.
Sultry Feeling: Ran a very solid race last start behind Bring Me The Maid on a heavy track. BMTM then went on to run 3rd in the Slipper and Sultry’s run was huge considering her position in the race and where the winners came from. Should get every chance from the barrier today and maps to go close.
Amicus: Maiden winner by 5.5L, did she beat much? Probably.. but Waller runner… this is much harder today.
Shaumari: Won a 2Y-OMW fairly average race on Heavy. Form is ok but not for me here at the weights.
Aerobar: Didn’t show much last start on Heavy. back to slow though so don’t fully discount with a 1L 3rd to Alpha Miss.
Queen of Kariba: 4L maiden winner on dead. Hard to see.
Comments: Probably 5-6 chances here but I have it down to four key hopes. Memorial was good last start, but probably drops back a little today for mine after a peak run. Can still win off that last start run though. Oakleigh Girl also ran very well last start… barrier suits and back to slow suits also. Ygritte is weighted very well today and should have won last start, back to slow/heavy today should be a key improvement for her after running Mossfun to 1L two back. Sultry Feeling is the one at Odds I like. If we have a heavy track today, she is a huge chance, slow, chance goes down a little.
Strategy: Sultry Feeling on top from Ygritte. Saver on Memorial.
Randwick Race 4
Sidestep: Just snuck in for the win last start and went close the run before that as well. Going huge this prep and will be in this at the end again. Key to me is down 2.5kg today
Safeguard: Fairly disappointing last prep finishing off in listed races, previous to that 3L fo Lankan Rupee wasn’t too bad… seems to go best early in his preps though. No wet form to speak of.
Dothraki: Had to win or even go closer last start for me to suggest he wins today. It was a decent run but it doesn’t talk enough for his wet form here today. Last prep he was very good, this is harder though.
In Cahoots: Was struggling to get a BM-70 win in country class then on heavy got a win at Gosford in similar class of race. Oliver takes the ride. Can’t dismiss but can’t be overly confident here either.
Never Can Tell: Well backed first up at Moonee Valley when did a bit wrong and ran 1.5L 3rd to Platelet. No real wet form to speak of though makes it hard to trust him here.
Turquoise King: Decent win last start at Moonee Valley but the field was lesser than this for sure. No wet track form but only run on dead was a 3L win. Not the worst here and Hawkes stable is flying.
Havana: First up took his maiden finally start to finish by a lazy 4 lengths. Last prep showed he had a fair bit of class in a few races but didn’t measure up really. Never placed on dead only ever on Good. Hard to have for mine.
Chautauqua: Ran home well enough last start but the form of that race doesn’t look exactly the best form to take. Not sure he measures up in this.
Thump: Fairly good win 2nd up this prep and then improved agian to run a 2.3L 8th behind Spirit of Boom. No wet form to speak of from only run but suspect she handles a slow track on how well she has gone on dead. Sneaky chance.
Bounding: The one to beat for mine. Won a Group 1 two runs back on slow track from start to finish over in New Zealand. Last start back to Good won as well in 3Y-GP3. Going very well and rates to win this.
Shamalia: Good win two back but then poor last start really. Poorly weighted today.
Comments: Three main chances for mine here in Sidestep, Thump and Bounding. Thump is the value of the race. From the barrier should get a perfect run and is weighted to win. Bounding is the NZ Group 1 winner this prep in slow and is a massive chance, while Sidestep has been great this prep and can improve again today off a good weight.
Strategy: Bounding to win. Medium bet on Thump.
Randwick Race 5
Red Tracer: Very very poor showing last start with a poor post-race recovery. Much easier company today so to speak but that last start run was a bit of a concern. Waller didn’t want to run her that day but was suggested to by the owners I believe due to the wet track, it didn’t work out. Is that a huge setback in her prep towards this race today? It has to be considered. She has only ever won once at this distance in the past and that was 0.1L defeat of Catkins on Good at Flemington.
Streama: Very very very poor last start. Rate on previous runs but even then, she has to find 2 lengths to win today at weights.
Catkins: Flying this prep and continues to beat off challengers. Ignore tow back run when Steps In Time on a Good surface was weighted to win, she still ran on bravely. She has put in three runs this prep on wet tracks for three wins and at the weights, should go close again today, especially if the rail is on.
Viadana: The unknown of the race, flown over from New Zealand for this after a Group 2 and FM-GP1 win. Four back also recorded a WFA-G1 win over 1400m. Has never won on slow from 4 starts but has been flying this prep. Has to be respected.
Bonaria: Disappointed all things considered last start at the weights. Heavily worse off at weights today but does go ok on wet. Hard to have.
Diamond Drille: Beaten well last start by Catkins and up 1kg today against her. Hard to see the improvement here.
Recite: Has won on slow previously and going well enough this prep over in NZ. Won in FM-LR and 3Y-GP1 class, but when stepped up to FM-GP1 class last start was found out against Viadana. Hard to suggest she wins this today.
Solicit: Is she good enough to win this? Dropping back to 1600m is a massive concern here today for mine. Ran very well last start on rain affected ground to just get run down by Lucia Valentina in 3F-GP1. Steps up to FM-GP1 class today and takes on some of the best runners around. Needs to produce a career best run but at the weights comes in well. I don’t know where to speed map her today either.. her best has come from out the front but surely Catkins won’t give up the lead? May sit outside the Cat?
Gypsy Diamond: Good, predictable win last start at course and distance. Down 2.5kg today but 2kg worse off against Catkins today from two back run. Can run well but needs to find another gear today to beat the best in this race.
Comments: I think there are really only five chances who can actually win in Red Tracer, Catkins, Viadana, Solicit and Gypsy Diamond. I think Gypsy Diamond is good but I just can’t picture her passing every runner today. Viadana is unproven on this type of ground and i’m happy to take her on today also against this class of field. I have MASSIVE concerns about Red Tracer’s prep. If she produces a career best she is probably the one to beat, but her career best is at a different distance to this. I don’t know where to map Solicit today. I think they have to take her to the front to win, but will they? Is 1600m her best? never won on it! I keep coming back to Catkins. She has done everything right this prep and loves it wet as well. The price looks right.
Strategy: Catkins to win.
Randwick Race 6
Zanbagh: Doesn’t look to be much between her and Rising Romance on last start run. Both looking for further and both enjoy it wet. Not top pick but in top 5 today. May get a better spot today from barrier 6.
Lucia Valentina: The one to beat today. Absolutely massive run from the back last start at Rosehill when she killed the rest of these today. Did get a run for luck, but that doesn’t matter, on sectionals she would have beaten all of these from positions out wide as well, not won, but beat all these. Should improve with extra distance as well and likes it wet. Is her best on Heavy and may fall back a bit if slow?
Rising Romance: Not much between her and Zanbagh today on first up run. Up to 2400m helps and did beat Lucia Valentina or Slow four runs back. Barrier 4 helps today also to get a better spot in run. Needs to improve today though.
Miss Mossman: Didn’t have the best luck in running last start. Had to go back in the running and then blocked for runs. Just ignore she went around and if the track is slow, you ahve to give her a chance. Best on Good tracks though.
Suavito: She ran on very well being the widest in the run and checked. The barrier today hurts alot, but expect her to be pushed out to try sit just off the speed today due to the position in running expected for all the other favourites. Yard are very keen and I have a sizeable futures ticket on her at $100-1. I think she is a chance today, not top hope, but could steal it if gets a very positive position and a lack of speed in the race.
Forever Loved: Ran ‘ok’ last start just holding onto 3rd. Up to 2400m unsure if it really suits but I guess so on progression this prep. Hard to see a win here though.
Miss Selby: No wet track form to go off. Never runs a bad race this filly and if she has lost, it’s always been 2nd or 3rd. Massive step up in class here though.
Casino Dancer: Ran home well enouigh last start for 2nd…but won’t be beating these home.
Interspersed: Didn’t handle the heavy as much as a few others last start. I think she doesn’t have the ability to beat all these today, probably about 1.5-2L off them.
Role Model: Very poor run last start but probably better from out the front? Was still bad. Runs this prep have been ‘ok’ but can’t see this improvement on last start. Better suited to less distance?
Amanpour: Barrier 1, they will try go forward again today. Ran poorly last start and has shown best on dead or better ground. Has still won on slow but hard to be on off previous form.
MissVonn: Ran on very well last start behind Arabian Gold. Up 2kg here is a little harsh, but also ran home well behind Zanbagh three back and was just a little behind Rising Romance and Zanbagh etc two back. Barrier means goes back again today.
Cast In Stone: Didn’t show enough last start at least to suggest can win today on rain affected ground. No thanks.
Cuban Star: Couldn’t win a CL2 last start. Enough said.
Blue Eyes: Only ran 15L last. Needs to be back in BM-70 class.
Comments: Lucia Valentina looks very hard to beat today, but will they crawl out front? There isn’t a great deal of speed in the race and Lucia maps to sit out the back which is the only issue. You have to remember Solicit ran last start at a nice solid enough tempo. Suavtio should push forward from the wide barrier and be in a position to swoop at the end while Rising Romance and Zanbagh map to sit midfield to have every chance again today. Missvonn should be closer to the back today as well.
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 12
Strategy: Lucia Valentina to win. Lesser bet Suavito.
Randwick Race 7
Voleuse De Coeurs: Just ignore last start and rate on previous form. She is a really goot horse and expect her to show her best today back in lesser class if you ask me. Slow or Heavy suits… just looked to not be interested in winning last start.
Sertorius: Fairly disappointing last start not even placing. Up to 3200m very questionable and I would only be interested in giving him a chance today on a slow track.
Who Shot TheBarman: Won two in a row this prep including a handy Group 1 last start over some decent runners, but this is much harder today. Not only is he back onto a wet surface which he isn’t proven on in this grade (2 wins 1 place from 4 on slow or heavy is still ok), but he is up from 52.5kg and 53.5kg to 56kg here. When you compare that to The Offer who is down 2.5kg off a 2.3L win in Group 2 last start, he looks poorly weighted. I’m happy to bet around him here.
The Offer: Very hard to beat if the track remains heavy for the race today. Win last start was effortless and the same with the previous start. Down 2.5kg here amazingly. Back on Heavy, saver on Slow? Jury is out and I suspect you may need to wait until we know the track condition the race before to have a bet on him.
Brigantin: Two back run was solid enough but last start fairly disappointing, but to be honest, i didn’t expect him to handle the track condition. A slow to heavy track should be fine for him and down 4.5kg here from WFA-G1 class, he is a sneaky chance at odds.
Epingle: I like this girl. She is classy. Her run last start on slow at Rosehill was big. She was just simply too far back, they should have pushed forward from the positive enough barrier and they would have won with her. This is a big step up in class and only down 2.5kg compared to say Brigantin who is back from WFA-G1 class and down 4.5kg, so she isn’t exactly well treated with weights. She loves it slow or heavy but barrier 12 was a massive issue for mine. I expect they will try and run on again today and that rules her out for me over the 3200m.
Tupac Maaru: Impressed last start and was game to the line. Was his peak run for sure all career, but will he improve again today? I can make an argument that he will. Up in class today outside of 3YO is hard, but down 2.5kg will help, up to 3200m which he looks to be wanting should help also. Can I put him on top? No, not here, but will he be in the Quaddie? You Betcha!
Gondokoro: Not going well enough. Last win was on wet ground but shown nothing this prep. Aboslutely nothing.
Let’s Make Adeal: Disappointed on heavy and safe to say on that run that she wants it much dryer. Hard to have here.
Opinion: I just keep looking at his run four runs ago and am struggling to see what has happened to him. That run was sensational, he smashed Carlton House and even Junoob on the slow surface… what helped him was a VERY strong tempo out front. He is a tough horse and he doesn’t have a key turn of foot, but if the speed is on the whole way around, he is the one who will be there at the end. Will he get that today? I don’t think so, but I also can’t count him out. Does look over the odds, but he needs it run to suit.
Hippopus: Surprised many by taking 2nd behind Junoob almost getting the win two back and then ran home well last start as well. Back to Slow/heavy today should help a little but is his best over this distance? Questionable for mine. Should have every opportunity to lead this and Cassidy onboard suggests that will be the strategy.
Tremec: Last two runs have been very brave on heavy tracks. He certainly had every chance both runs and is suited by the wet track again today. 2.5kg worse off today against The Offer is a massive concern though.
Desert Jeuney: Doesn’t handle it wet on last two starts runs. Up in weight today as well! No thanks.
Macedonian: Handles the distance and handles a wet track. His last two starts weren’t good enough to win this though and at a fairly equal weight, needs to have found a few lengths to compete here.
Angola: Didn’t handle the heavy last start. Down 5kg today but surely from barrier 2 can’t be asked to lead to have a shot. I can’t see him winning this either way.
Like A Carousel: Average at best last start. Not in this class on wet grounds.
Fifth Column: Last win was a CL1 at Ipswitch… best run this prep has been CL3 class 6.5L 7th. How does he even get nominated?
Comments: Five key runners here for me. Who Shot TheBarman at the price is a horse I’m happy to take on, this is a step up in class from that NZ race and his form on wet is in lesser class, plus his way up in weight. Tupac Amaru takes a big step up in class here from 3Y-GP1, but that last start run was enough to suggest he can go close. Opinion may just get the speed required to be a chance today and has to be respected at a crazy price. Voleuse De Coeurs and The Offer are the two key runners for me today. If by race time the track is still a heavy track, then you can’t ignore The Offer, if we get a downgrade to slow, only 1 rating point though, then you still have to favour The Offer. Anything Slow 6 or better ground, then I can’t touch him today. Voleuse De Coeurs is absolutely over the odds today and will be one of the best backed of the day. Up to 3200m suits very well here, likes it wet and should improve significantly from last start run.
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7, 10
Strategy: Big bet on The Offer ONLY on Slow 7 or Heavy (any rating) – take him on if Slow 6 or better. Medium sized bet on Voleuse De Coeurs (lock in the early price).
Randwick Race 8
Boban: Ran home quite well last start on the very wrong part of the ground. Wet weather all weel again today though with a Heavy on Friday, but not much expected to hit after and might get back to a slow, giving him a slight chance.
It’s A Dundeel: Ran better than expected last start but still couldn’t get close to Silent Achiever. Would expect he would be peaking today and no setbacks during the week unlike last start gives him every chance. Should appreciate a slow track more than heavy if it comes. Big chance and money has come.
Sacred Falls: Massive win from near the back last start at course and over 1600m. Has proven the distance is no issue in the past, but would probably want it a little more wet than today to beat all of these home. Still, don’t dismiss. Never won a WFA-G1 is an issue.
Green Moon: Never won off the 59kg in 11? attempts now? Probably more. His last two runs have been very good though, but his best has always been on Good so a slow to heavy track today is a massive concern.
Carlton House: Ran on very well out the front last start at Rosehill and was very hard to beat, but Silent Achiever just got there. Good surface back to a wet one is a massive concern for me. Never won on anything but Good but has placed 2 from 3 on slow. Got beaten by Opinion two back by a large margin…
Hawkspur: Well backed in early markets after 5.5L 4th to Sacred Falls last start. Fair to say he didn’t exactly beat up the heavy going. Back to a surface less rain affected and you have to give him a chance back up to 2000m. His run two back was eye-catching, but he has to improve.
My Kingdom of Fife: Ran hom ewell enough last start. A big ask to win this today, but has been set for this race and this race only all prep.
Toydini: Last few runs have been ok without really impressing. Out classed here today on previous form and unproven over 2000m.
Le Roi: Goes well on slow tracks and won well last start at Moonee Valley. This is a massive step up in class though and also up in weight. F4 chance?
Silent Achiever: The horse to beat. Has been sensational all prep and putting in some crazy sectionals. Good barrier again today, back to 2000m not an issue for mine and will get it wet once again which is where she shows her best. Rated to win and price is overs again, should be favourite.
Royal Descent: Looked to have every chance last start for mine but just wasn’t good enough to beat Sacred Falls. Won’t get a track as wet today which is a big concern and up 3kg hurts. Happy to beat around her today.
Dear Demi: Doesn’t really enjoy the wet as much as others here. Hard to have at weights also.
Comments: Two key runners stand out for me in Silent Achiever and It’s A Dundeel. Very keen to stand these two our with a 2 unit and 1 unit bet. I would be surprised, almost shocked, if either of these runners miss a place.
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 10
Strategy: Silent Achiever to win. Smaller bet on It’s A Dundeel (please note there are so many bookie offers on for money back 2nd, 3rd, 4th or even 5th – shop around)
Randwick Race 9
Dystopia: Runs well on wet tracks so no issue today. Run first up in Group 1 company was good, but seemed to just be getting found out in the final 100m for mine. Had nearly 2 months between runs and should have trained on significantly. Down in class here and weighted nicely. Can’t ignore.
Avoid Lightning: Very good win last start, most will say she was lucky to win and Plucky Belle was a moral beaten, but it was a good run and win. Gets a similar position in running today and should be better suited by the track today, looks over the odds and will go close.
Full Of Spirit: First up in Aus, ran 1L 2nd in WFA-G1 last prep on Heavy and then 1.3L 2nd on Slow over 1400m and 1600m. Back to 1200m is a big issue up in this level of class in Australia… needs to have trained on even more to win here. Could lead.
Liliburlero: Good runs this prep. Shown best on dry tracks but still ran on well enough last start behind Flamberge. Needs to improve today though to win this on a wet track.
Plucky Belle: The one to watch. Ran on huge last start blocked for runs. Will be much further back today though which is only issue.
Aerobatics: Did enough last start to suggest can improve again today but needs to pass more than two on form lines. Hard to see for me.
Peron: Goes well enough on slow tracks on previous form and this class of runs last prep were strong but just didn’t get a win. Weighted well enough today and goes well first up. Key chance.
Recoinage: Every chance last start and not good enough. Very poorly weighted.
Simply Brilliant: Probably should have won last start in much easier company. Runs well on wet tracks. Much harder today.
Villa Spendido: Not in this league of class on last two preps.
Belle De Coeur: Ran fairly first up but this is significantly harder. Can’t have.
Cosmic Endeavour: Very good run 2nd to Politeness last week on Heavy. Took a sit instead of leading and that was the key for her. I was really impressed with the run. Can win today if gets a good position.
Shahad: Hard to have on last start run on Heavy. Was very poor.
Comments: Very wide last leg for the day with many chances on form.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 12
Strategy: Avoid Lightning and Cosmic Endeavour equal stake bets.
Caulfield Race 3
An interesting meeting here giving up some decent form lines, but a few certainly stand out for me.
Bec Said No Credit finished off the race nicely last start at Flemington and is way back in class today off just 1kg more. That race was front runner won and she finished alongside some very handy runners. Rates very well today.
Catered is poorly weighted today against others in the race, but was huge last start at Flemington. Blocked for runs twice and still finished within 1L of the win. Should improve again today and if gets a clear run will go close.
Red Fez won last start from out the front and maps well again today. Weighted well enough.
Means A Lot did too much work leading last start at Flemington. Back to Caulfield Today and 1.5kg better off against Red Fez, could steal this race.
Comments: Red Fez looks way under correct odds today. Could be a good lay option.
Strategy: Bec Said No Credit to win. Lesser bet on Means A Lot.
Caulfield Race 4
River Delta looks to be one of the best bets of the day today. Barrier 6 means she should get a perfect run today and the 2kg claim gets her well in at the weights against those she beat last start. Outside of those she beat last start, and beat them well, I can’t find any on form to beat her.
Strategy: River Delta to win
Caulfield Race 5
Classy Jack: Won 4 of 5 this prep over in South Australia with only a Slow track 0.1L defeat to Too Discreet who is a decent horse. Up in class today off 58kg, rates well but will the Adelaide form stack up? If the rail is on, hard to beat.
The Bowler: Should be ridden with a sit today considering all the speed in the race which should suit. Down to 56kg today after claims, his last two runs have been solid, but will he measure up today up in class realistically?
The Quarterback: Ran home very well with 60kg last start but just couldn’t get there. Interesting they don’t opt for an apprentice today which I think is a HUGE mistake. Don’t get me wrong, he will run home very well today, but he will be very very far back and will need a huge effort to run close.
Consorting: Positioned closer to the speed last start and ran home close 2nd to Churchill Dancer. Did run 2nd to Notlisteningtome three runs back as well which is form worth considering. Rawiller keeps the ride today. Barrier hurts alot.
Alpha Beat: Is he really a quality 3YO runner? did run 2nd behind Vilanova in the poorest rated 3Y-GP2 i’ve seen in a long time. Previous to that beat Jades Boy on a good track which is poor form in hindsight as well and then failed in 3Y-GP1 last start. Down to 54kg well back in class is a positive and down in distance suits I feel. Massive odds today.
Jessy Belle: Impressive filly who showed enough at MV in first prep to suggest she could run well today if improved. Best shown over further, but did win maiden by 3 lengths over 1200m. Don’t dismiss, she is a good horse.
Hard Stride: 2.5L 12th last start at Flemington when had every chance. Hard to have up 1kg today as well!
Bedisguised: Finished off fairly poorly last start. Down 1.5kg today but not the best here.
Ilgattino: Showed nothing firs tup when bumped at start and ran from the back. Form last prep not good enough to place here.
Search Squad: Ran on very well last start at Flemington, but only shows a 10th on his record. He wasn’t expected to even go within 3 lengths. Does he have the improvement today? Not too sure on that with no claims.. but could he go better back around the corner track? Yep. Wide barrier makes it very hard though.
Sense of Hite: A little further back than expected last start but ran on ‘ok’ without impressing. Thought she would show a lot more. Even at weights, hard to see her getting the win today.
Vero Beach: Jumped well last start and was just claimed in the final 50m last start at Flemington. Down 1kg today and from barrier 4 maps very very well. Big chance.
Washington Square: Fallen away up in class recently. Down to 52kg but hard to have off form this prep.
Boer: Couldn’t win last start in R-64 at Geleong. Hard to see going close today.
Belesron: Won a maiden welll but maiden in the country (Murtoa to be exact, i don’t even know where that is lol) to this? Times were average. No thanks.
Golfing: Maiden only winner who couldn’t win R-64.
Excellent Flight: Very average first up when $2.90 favourite.. hung on turn then laid in straight… I know they have a good opinion of him but this is a huge throw a the stumps? I can’t ignore this throw and have to put in Quaddie if he gets a run.
Comments: I had 9 runners I wanted to give a chance in this race, 2 at crazy odds. I’ve included 7 but only expect 6 to start.
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6, 12, 15, 20
Strategy: Consorting on top from Alpha Beat. Spec bets on Seardh Squad and Excellent Flight.
Caulfield Race 6
Mr O’Ceirin: Love this bloke but today is simply just to have a run around. Should still run well, did go close over 1700m last prep at Caulfield… but best is over 2000m.
Ready To Rip: Never won at this distance, ever. Goes well at track never missing a place from 4 goes. First up run was certainly underwhelming.. it was very poor compared to last prep and prep before that. Hard to have on that firs tup run today.
Smokin’ Joey: Ran home well last start but didn’t impress me enough to suggest he wins this today. Have to include in Quaddie but needs to improve again.
Natuzzi: First up run in Australia was a decent win but this is much harder class today. Showed his best over 1200m this prep in NZ with a Group 1 close 2nd to Irish Fling after being blocked for a run. Last start before shipping out ran a 2L Listed 1st as well off 59kg. Down to 56kg here, looks well suited back to a less wet track. Have to respect.
Adamantium: Should have won last start but was ridden to not lead and that cost them. This has been the goal all along and poor barrier but will push forward and be made to lead. Down to 55.5kg today means he will be VERY hard to run down especially if the rail is playing very well. Looks overs.
Mecir: Absolutely the runner to beat today. Hawks yard flying and this bloke flew home last start at Newcastle to win. Only up 1kg today and looks a big chance.
Bianmick: Like this bloke but he needs much further and weaker class.
Hawks Bay: Not going close in this class at weights.
Sistine Demon: Won 6 of his last 7 and the loss was by 0.2L. Hard to count him out again but this is a much harder race. Also, Oliver off and Kah on (although her last ride on him was a 3L win). Likes the track. Goes well.
Reparations: Ran home well last start at Newcastle and previously just beaten by Messene in Canberra. 1.8L behind Sistine Demon at Kilmore and meets 1kg better today. On form, he will run very well but from barrier 1, will need luck to get a winning run.
Decircles: Better on a straight track. Never won at Caulfield previously. Never missed a place over 1400m either and weighted ok, but prefer others here today. Always runs well.
Mister Milton: Not going well enough to consider being a winner here today.
Garud: Never missed a place first up or at distance or even at this track… all good signs.. but his best has been seen over 2000m+.
Gig: Continues to run well. Very unlucky to just miss out last start on the line. Down 6kg and up in class today, the WFA-G1 run two back was eye-catching. Don’t dismiss, will run very well from barrier.
Chile Express: Average last two runs. Can improve again today but others preferred at weights.
Elwick Jack: Good win first up on slow at Sandown. This is a much harder race and weighted only average at best. Not for me.
London Stripe: Ran very well on slow behind Fat Al at Bendigo last start.. this is a step up again I reckon.
Comments: Very tough race on paper. About 4-5 runners who want to lead, but we know Adamantium HAS to lead to have a chance today while Sistine Demon has only ever led the last 6 starts. I’ve got this down to 3 key hopes. Adamantium is a sentimental favourite of mine and I really do feel he is over the odds again today. If he leads, he goes very very close. Sistine Demon has been very hard to beat all this prep and that will continue today. The key runner for mine is Natuzzi. He ran 0.3L 2nd in Group 1 company this prep over in NZ and has won in Listed company since and then won first up in Australia on a slow track in Open class. Down 2kg today, he is weighted to win.
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 17
Strategy: Natuzzi to win. Smaller bet Adamantium.
Caulfield Race 7
Mourayan: Going super this prep. 0.1L 2nd to Fiorente first up and then 2L off 2nd up. More than a month off to train on and instead of going for the hard races up in Sydney has been targeted at this. Rates to go very close.
Banca Mo: Thought he was very disappointing last start. Seemed to have a very good chance and couldn’t get the win. Up to 2000m today suits and never been defeated at this dsitance, but this is the hardest field he has ever seen.
Julienas: Just ignore last start when didn’t handle heavy. Will get a dead or Good track today which is what he needs. Rate on two runs back and then down 2.5kg today, rates nicely in this race.
Tanby: Average at best first up. Down 5kg today meeting Akzar 3.5kg better at weights, but needs much more than that swing to win today.
Shoreham: Average at best first two runs this prep. Up to 2000m helps but still poorly weighted.
Stipulate: Ran on very well last start after missing the start. Suited by distance increase today and down 4kg. May just be finding his best and is worth consideration.
Mourinho: Ran well first up before not placing the last two starts. This is much harder agian and he should run well but hard to suggest he wins this.
Moudre: Showed nothing first up and hasn’t won since 2010. Not for me.
Zabeelionaire: Hasn’t shown us anything for about 2 years and don’t see that changing today.
Akzar: Just too far back last start, poor ride. Payne goes on Rawiller off… the key for me here is Akzar is down 3.5kg today while Our Voodoo Prince is equal weights today. I can’t believe the odds put up for these two, Akzar should be much shorter.
Escado: Very poor run last start. Hard to have here today at weights.
Hvasstan: Showed nothing last start after such a good run behind Commanding Time. Up in class again and poorly weighted.
Our Voodoo Prince: Won well last start and also lost a plate. Equal weight today but giving up 3.5kg today to Akzar is a huge concern. Can still win, no doubt, but has to improve.
Ancient King: Average run firs tup and then didn’t improve last start. Hard to have today.
Whisper Downs: Very poorly weighted today. Can’t have him.
Saint or Sinner: Won four in a row but those have all been in much easier class. Poorly weighted again these today is the issue. Can still run well though.
Zephyron: Couldn’t win BM-80 class this prep. Up to 2000m helps but hard to have him here.
Comments: Just the four I consider aboslute winning chances in this race, they all seem a class above the rest. Stipulate over in GB proved to be group material and the run last start was very good. He should improve a lot today. Our Voodoo Prince has taken Australia by storm and he is flying, the massive issue is weights against Akzar today. Akzar is weighted to win this and won all 3 previous races before the 2nd last start when too far back. Mourayan is the stand out here. Back from WFA-G2 and WFA-G1 class and with a close 2nd to Fiorente, you have to respect him here today. Barrier is average, but he will go very very close here.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 10, 13
Strategy: Mourayan to win. Saver Akzar.
Caulfield Race 8
It Is Written: Big win two back at Moonee Valley and then last start last at MV in WFA-G1, but was still only 2.5L off them. Back to Open class today and off 58kg after claims, rates well! Barrier is an issue though and may be further back than wanted.
Pago Rock: Very disappointing runs the last two starts. He seems to have really fallen away after some very good runs first and second up. Weighted nicely back in class here and he goes well at Cualfield.. but barrier 19 will have him further back than wanted?
Vatican: Ran very poorly last start at Moonee Valley. On three back run can go well but on last two runs no chance. Can’t have.
Unanimously: First up run was huge from the back at Moonee Valley just missing. Should improve again today and go close.
Canali: Good horse, I like him, but he isn’t this class of horse. He will go ok but not place.
Elite Elle: Huge query on the ground today. Currently dead and race 8 means we have a full day for it to dry up to a Good track on which she has never placed. I would note three back ran 1.5L 6th to It Is Written on good, but similar weight today from that run. I think she goes very close if we have a dead track, but a lesser chance on Good. Last two runs she has looked the winner with 100m to go and then just died on her run. A very good in-play short lay opportunity horse.
Alpha Proxima: Like this guy but he showed his best last prep over further distances and further into prep. I just can’t consider him a top chance today.
Zedi Knight: Old Zedi! Ran a ripper race three runs back but nothing as good since then. He seems to run 1 really good race every 5-6 runs. Barrier hurts him here.
Octavia: Ran very poorly first up… very poorly. Up in class as well today at similar weights, i can’t have her here.
Sumakaray: Looked to be a really good horse but just hasn’t made the city grade to get the wins when it has counted. Ran well over 900m first up but didn’t even place as $2 favourite. 51kg today after claims is very hard to ignore up to 1100m. 2nd up last prep at course and distance in FM-LR grade a good 2nd. Will be ridden for luck from barrier 1.
Bocuse: Running well enough this prep but just continues to miss out on wins. Down to 52kg today, weighted well enough up in class again. Barrier hurts.
Living on a Prayer: Given no chance first up at Flemington but snuck home for 3rd at big odds. Up 1kg here today and back onto a corner track… needs to show more today.
Morant: Only going fairly after a good win four back at Caulfield. 52kg helps but others preferred on recent form.
California Wish: May not even get into the barriers, just watch! Tasmania runner who is out of her league here. Too big a throw at the stumps, miss by 5 metres IMO.
Schumacher: Ran on very well last start at Bendigo and just missed. Way up in class here today but down to 54kg helps.
Sir Fernando: Very poor run first up. Hard to consider.
Big Buddie: Oh Buddie! If he wins today I’ll chuck my remote through my TV. Can’t have him at the weights today.
Comments: One of the most open races of the day. I couldn’t exactly tell you ‘this horse should win’. A few are very closely rated. I keep watching the replay of Unanimously flashing home first up at MV and he wasn’t touched until the 200m. He wants the 1100m today and from well back will be able to flash home late to go very close.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 6, 11
Strategy: Unanimously on top. Sumakaray smaller bet.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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