Welcome to The Profits form guide for Mornington and Rosehill. Well last night didn’t go to plan as much as expected. The Best Bet ran well but finished 2nd and Next Best was a nice go E/W and was a profit. It was a tough night all over with a few surprises but how great was it to see Samaready return to her best?
Not looking at every race today.. in fact.. just 5 at Rosehill and 2 at Mornington. Full form will be back tomorrow for Caulfield. I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Rosehill Race 2 Aussie’s Love Sport
Next Best
Rosehill Race 7 High Esteem
Best Value
Rosehill Race 8 Diamond Earth
Rosehill Race 2
Looks to be a race in two with Aussies Love Sport a $2 favourite from $3.50 Eurozone.
The form lines around Aussies Love Sport are clear. Won his last two in very fast run races and goes well at the distance while Eurozones best have been on lesser distances but most importantly on wet tracks. There isn’t much on the rain radar and the course should remain a Good course.
All the form points to Aussies Love Sport on a Good track.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Back Aussies Love Sport
Rosehill Race 3
I’m Imposing was big two runs back over 1500m but didn’t measure up to the 2000m distance IMo and the 2400m should b e too far
Wazn won a Listed grade race fairly well last start including beating home Julienas. 3KG worse off today but shouldn’t be discounted on that.
Less Is More ran well behind Prince Cheri and 0.8L off Julienas.. Same weights today also. The main danger.
Julienas is the class here. Suited by the step up in distance but continues to be a non-winner. There is really no pace in this race so he may go out the front and control the tempo.
Comments: I have Wazn and Julienas above Less Is More in my book and while I can’t back either at the price to win, I can lay the 2nd favourite.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Laying Less is More
Rosehill Race 5
A tough race with many classy runners on the up.
Express Power can’t be laughed at with a strong 2nd behind Royal Descent and starting favourite in a strong race up in Queensland last prep when lame. Has won first up and should be suited.
Driefontein looks unders after the easy win last start and up to 1400m today in a more classy field.
Bennetta ran home well last start but has to find a few more lengths on that run.
Appearance was fairly disappointing first up so hard to back.
Red Tracer looks the top chance. Goes well first up (never missed a place) and loves the track and distance. Go close.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Red Tracer and Express Power
Rosehill Race 7
Many chances here.
Hosting continues to prove this prep but this looks much harder. Weighted well enough to run well from the barrier.
Ashokan showed enough last start to suggest can improve today with a better ride.
Your Honour ran on well last start behind Riva De Lago and is one to watch.
Rain Drum is resuming today. Form lines were strong. Waterhouse runner and weighted to win if back to best.
Hoylonny needs further.
High Esteem is the one to beat here. No disgrace losing to Toydini from out the front on such a hot pace. Weighted well enough and from barrier 4 maps to win.
Centennial Park is horribly weighted today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: High Esteem is priced very well today and rates to win. Great E/W bet.
Rosehill Race 8
Diamond Earth. Better 2nd up, but word is she is comimg back at her best. Best over a 1100m trip, from barrier 4 can take a sit or lead.. down in class big time and weighted to win.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: E/W all day.
Mornington Race 6
Brigantin wasn’t the worst run first up on Good. Extra 400m suits the horse and back onto a wet track looks suited also. Can go close if at best.
Anagold has been strong the last few starts but hard to see winning on surface.
Streets of Seattle won very well four back at Flemington on heavy. Goes well at this distance and loves it wet. Go close if good enough.
Surpass was huge first up and then last start in easier company beat Hunger who is a very good hose. 2/3 from 5 on heavy and goes well on slow also. Go close.
Crafty Cruiser goes well enough on slow but if Heavy then can’t have.
Why Not doesn’t have good enough wet form to back today.
Correggio is a horse who has ran ok in much easier company and goes well on Heavy.. but is WAY under the odds today
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Very confident we get a result on these two runners. Backing Surpass to win strongly with a smaller bet Streets of Seattle.
Mornington Race 8
Tough race to finish the day but some strong runners and some decent value to be had.
Stanzout was super behind 0.5L behind Le Bonsir who ran 3rd in a Group 1 last night. Comes into this off equal weights and back onto wet ground… which is when the horse had his last win. Can go close and looks value!
Complicate Very strong last prep and has gone close both times on slow. Best found on dryer but should handle.
Alrouz Won on Slow last start very well at MV but looking for further it seems.
Tried and Tired: big win last start over Xavi. Unknown on surface.
Red Inca doesn’t have wet form to go off but ran well enough first up to go close here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Stanzout E/W with a saver on Complicate
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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