Horse Racing Form for Sale 4 December 2013

Welcome to The Profits form for Sale. Just a quick one today due to the uncertain rain conditions. We know the rain is coming and as writing this at 7.30pm on Tuesday evening, the track is a Dead 5. I’m expecting somewhere in the Slow range tomorrow and the form is based around this. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Race 5 Sale
One horse stands out here for me. Games has placed previously at Moonee Valley and Warrick Farm and returned nicely first up at course over 1200m. Her barrier doesn’t matter as she is best ridden cold from the back. She hardly ever puts in a bad run. Her only win has actually come over a rain affected track in a solid enough time. Sheikh Mohammed could have got rid of this one at any time, but they obviously consider the horse to have more wins in her. Most importantly, There looks to be solid speed out the front from Daylight Second who will be pushed hard to get over and take the lead.

Comments: Price looks over the correct odds. Please note, you want to make sure that there is no leader bias and the track is playing true so that Games has every chance.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: 3 units to place 1.5 units to win.

Race 7 Sale
A tough race to really judge. There is a horse I have a huge opinion of in this race who if produces anything like those runs from two preps back, will be winning today.
Now and Zen was horrible last prep. There is nothing else to say about that. First up, you didn’t expect anything over the 1400m. Has won 2nd up previously and barrier 5 suits to take a forward position. I’m going to suggest you simply ignore the slow track form from last prep. If anything, his best run last prep actually came on a slow Flemington track over this distance, so the 0 starts for 0 places is forgetable. Obviously, the track condition depends on the rail overnight, but if they don’t scratch, then I’m happy to chance this fact. The price on the horse is simply over the correct odds if we count progression into the form. Interesting to note he is 1 win 1 place from 3 at this distance.

Comments: Don’t be surprised if he runs last. We are taking much higher than the correct odds needed to back a horse of this previous quality on the chance he is 75% of his best run.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Now and Zen 1 unit to place and 0.5 unit to win

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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