Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown on 9 Apirl 2014. Keeping today short and sharp with two races that stand out presenting a favourite at backable odds with a saver on the 2nd favourite, presenting a strong situation at the odds, while an old favourite is weighted to win with a perfect change of jock. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 4
A few in this at odds first up with chances. I won’t be playing here but I believe a lay of Girl Guide and Not A Llama brings you the money more often that current odds suggest.
Sandown Race 5
A few runners with ‘chances’ here but Tooleybuc Kid is the one who stands out again today. Barrier 2, you know he will get the right run here just off the speed. Down to 55kg after claims, his run last start beaten 0.4L by Our Voodoo Prince has stood up big time after OVP won very very well at Flemington on the weekend.
Miss Outshine looks the key outset chance, but from barrier 1, she will need to get a run at the right time, expected to be 3-4 back on the rails. She is weighted well today and up in distance suits.
The others in the market with chances are Magnapal who is the top weight and has a few questions to answer at this distance stepping back from 2400m, Ferrari Star who is weighted nicely off a first up strong win over in Adelaide and Bishops Castle who has fallen off significantly the last two runs but at his best can win. Edgewood on two back run would go well here also.
Comments: The $3s for Tooleybuc Kid looks a good price here. Have to saver Miss Outshine at the price also.
Strategy: Tooleybuc Kid to win. Saver Miss Outshine.
Sandown Race 8
Tough way to end the day. Hear me out please.
Big Buddie was a huge run two back at course over 1400m and then last start just went too hard out front early on. On my mapping he and With Danger will be leading. Down 3kg today with Jackie Beriman taking the ride today. She is one of the most under-rated apprentices going around and is one of my favourites to trust on a front runner. The key for me is Buddie is back to 1300m today from 1400m… the 1400m just has seemed a little too far recently and his best seems to be 1200m to me. There seems to be a fair bit of rain around and we can hope it hits and we get a dead track for him. He has gone very close on Good, but his best has clearly been seen on Dead. Let’s be clear, last start was a concern, but if we forgive and go to two back run, he goes well here. I would just note that if they do take a sit today, based on the three back run, he does have the speed this prep to make up ground.
Comments: The Buddie is overs as always. I really think he can go close today.
Strategy: Big Buddie 3 units to place 1 unit to win.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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