*Update: Sandown has been Abandoned due to the rain overnight. Pretty disappointing. I am not going to switch around any of my bets. They remain the same.
Welcome to The Profits form guide for an action packed Saturday of Racing for the start of Winter. Last Saturday was horrible. Nothing went right, but we were due for a bad patch after a few successful weekends in a row. We got back to our winning ways with the one and only Best Bet on Wednesday saluting. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
On a side note, I am flying out of the country next Friday so I’m not sure as of yet how/when I will write my form guide for Saturday races. The good news is that I am flying to the other side of the world and it shouldn’t stop form from being written. The best news is that I am attending the Royal Ascot Races from the 18th of June so there will be a daily guide for there as well!
Sandown Race 6 Kirribilli Gold
Rosehill Race 6 Honourable Aussie
Rosehill Race 5 Glad You Called
$5 Dear Demi top-up with Betfair
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Sandown Race 1
I’m Ready For This: He was certainly ready first up winning by 5 lengths. This looks much harder but showed a lot of ability and will be going close today.
Boer: Handled the slow going ok last start but did lose by 3 lengths (ran 2nd). Equal class today. Needs to improve.
Moment of Design: No relation to Master of Design, Wonv ery well by 5L in a trial. Could go close.
Samarmeteors: Very classy half-sister to Night War and Samaready. Will try and lead this from start to finish. Times were sound last start. If handles the ground, looks to be the one to beat.
Bobcat: Fairly average run first up. Looks outclassed up in class.
Lady Lakshmi: Good win last start on heavy at course and similar distance. Looks to be a harder level of class today, but could be value.
Mysonharry: Hard to see the horse improving enough today.
Mystical Miss: A horse that had big expectations last prep. Didn’t show me enough.
Strategy: Samarmeteors looks to be the best runner in this race.. but you would want some further knowledge the horse can handle the heavy.
Sandown Race 2
Bloomingdale Miss: Didn’t seem to handle Heavy last prep and doesn’t seem to be going well enough to win today. Weighted ok though after claims.
Hai Lil: Progressed well last prep at Moonee Valley. Probably looking for further and only run on heavy was unplaced. Hard to back today.
Big Chill: Ran very well last start at Caulfield and may just be wanting the step back in distance. Issue is the wide gate here today though and never won on a wet ground.
Lonhruge: Big win last start at course and slightly further distance. Down 2.5kg today heavily up in class but is 1//1 on Heavy and did win on slow last start by nearly 3 lengths. From barrier 3 gets a gun run.
Truffle: Huge run two back behind Vain Queen and that run has been franked. Won very well at track last start and will be hitting the line hard. Only issue is if she gets trapped on the rails. Handles the Heavy.
Winta Chiller: Finished strongly last prep but this looks a step up once again. Always runs well. Question on heavy.
Kolonga: Didn’t seem to handle the heavy track last start. No thanks.
Legcut: Not going well enough this prep it seems but has won on heavy previously.
Nadeem Lass: Ran on well from the back last start. Meets Truffle 1.5kg better off today at the weights also. From barrier 5 should get a better position.
Mezulla: Maiden winner only. hard to back here.
Sheza Single Girl: She is single for a reason, not a stunner and no form on wet to go off.
Regnbue: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Pureminx: Couldn’t win many maidens.
Strategy: Three key runners here. I am happy to back Lonhruge due to speed mapped position while Nadeem Lass deserves some money at the price and Truffle is a saver if prices hold up. They are the three key runners on form and wet tracks.
Sandown Race 3
*I have very limited Australian Steeple knowledge and don’t follow it anywhere near as closely as the flat races.. so confidence will always be low from me in these types of races*
Bashboy: Loves a heavy track and is a special horse when over these distances on the Steeple. Last two wins last prep over the Steeples were at this distance or slightly longer on Heavy winning by 12L and 7L. Weighted well enough and should romp this in by all accounts from around the traps.
Man Of Class: Big second behind Banna Strand and looks the main danger to Bashboy. NEVER won on heavy from 6 starts though!
Cats Fun: Only 1 win from 6 on heavy but did beat Banna Strand over a slightly shorter distance than this last month.
Lord of the Song: Disappointing post Oakbank win. Hard to see the progression.
Half Moon Rising: Been running ok recently. Looks a step up today though.
Berlioz: Looks to be outclassed here by others in race. Never won on heavy.
Yamanaura: Hasn’t won in 4 years. Not winning today.
Strategy: Bashboy looks the key here.
Sandown Race 4
Brungle Cry: Rather disappointing last start at Flemington but all things considered (especially the Good ground), it wasn’t the worst run. Looks well suited today, but you do have a query off last start. Handles Heavy.
Gotta Take Care: Beat home BRungle Cry last start at Flemington. Only average on Heavy in the past is an issue but rates well here.
Dubhdara: Doesn’t look to be going well enough to win today off last start.
Love or Gold: Hard to see the win today in this class.
Macedonian: Huge win last start by 20 lengths on heavy! A group 1 runner in the past over 3200m and was really well suited to hurdles. As long as the horse doesn’t fall, will be the one to beat!
Maythehorsebemagic: Win wouldn’t shock today but must improve again on Heavy today.
Rays Bounty: Not in this race on previous form.
Xaar Best: Never won on slow or heavy. Good runner but prefer dryer.
Zaman: Can’t see a win here.
Strategy: Hard to pass up Macedonian at the price today on last starts run.
Sandown Race 5
Underestimation: Last win over a year ago was on Heavy. Ran well two back when losing a plate but disappointed last start. Hard to see winning this at weights from barrier 14.
Hunger: Have to ignore last start run and look to previous. Never run on slow or heavy is major issues and weighted poorly.
Scapolo: Big run last start and should be suited by Heavy ground today. Only issue is 57.5kg over the 1600m trip.
Coins: Just keeps finding a few too good. No form on heavy and weighted a little harshly. Still, has a big chance if produces best.
Digitalism: Never won on slow or heavy previously. Ran well last two starts, but is poorly weighted up in class. Has the ability to go close though.
Essay Raider: Think this horse has a lot of ability but hasn’t produced the best runs the last two runs. Schofield on board gives you hope.
Gold Medals: One run on heavy for no placing. Not going well enough it seems.
About Square: Never run on heavy previously. Need to improve off weights today.
Right To Roam: Only ran on slow once and didn’t place. Hard to see today.
Medvedev: Progressive and went close last start. Could improve today. has won on slow previously.
Forget: Couldn’t win a much easier race last start. Interestingly last win in 2012 was on heavy. Could be wanting this track today.
Topkapi: Hard to see the progression. Needs to make up 2-3 lengths.
East Bound: Can’t see the win here today.
Commemorate: Only a maiden winner.
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 4, 10
Strategy: Very hard race. I think Medvedev is the one to beat here as long as Duffy gets a got spot on the rail while Scapolo has to be savered if betting.
Sandown Race 6
Black And Bent: A great hurdle ruller but nots uited over this distance. That being said, the horse eats up the heavy ground and could be the main danger to the horse we like off 55.5kg.
Crafty Cruiser: A horse I really like but can’t see it going close off the first two starts this prep. Poorly weighted and doesn’t love heavy ground.
Lake Sententia: Good win last start in Adelaide… meets as hard a field here today IMO.. most likely trapped from barrier 4 but could get to outside. 0 wins from 2 starts on slow and never ran on heavy. I can’t see her winning today!
De Fine Lago: Ran well enough doing a lot wrong last start. Has won on heavy and will appreciate the extra distance today.. but not sure is weighted well enough.
Rosello: Could be crying out for the heavy on breeding but you realyl couldn’t touch on last two runs.
Secessio: Very disappointing run last start getting too far back. Will need to show much more to win today.. but does handle heavy.
My Bentley: Never run on heavy. Weighted ok today but hasn’t shown anything all prep.
King’s A Star: Ran well enough last start leading start to finish. Never won on slow or heavy and will have a hard time getting over from barrier 10. A chance today still on previous runs but probably outclassed.
Budai: Goes ok on rain affected tracks but needs to find another 2-3L today on previous runs. Weighted ok.
Kirribilli Gold: Big win on heavy in the Steeplechase last start. Previous run was VERY impressive winning on slow at course and distance in easier company. Reading franked that form.. down 7kg today!!!!!!!! On heavy… Beriman on board. All HUGE positives. A massive price.
Lordoftheparrots: Never won 2nd up previously. Didnt show anything first up.
The Big Steel: Weighted well enough today but off previous two runs is outclassed here. Could still position well enough and sneak a place.
Harry Trimbole: Disappointed last two runs. Poorly weighted today up 2.5kg and hard to see winning here. Does go ok on wet ground.
Quaddie leg two: 2, 12, 15
Stategy: Loading up Kirribilli Gold at the $7/$2.30 on offer around the totes. Don’t expect the horse to start longer than $4.
Sandown Race 7
Amaethon: Never won on slow or heavy. Hard to see him going close today off 60kg on the surface sadly.
Bello: Group 3 winner who eats up the Heavy. The only issue is the 60kg today but he will be very hard to beat. Gets a gun run also from barrier 2.
Pago Rock: Huge win last start when rider lost whip as well. Has never ran on slow or heavy which is a major issue but with 5 wins from 7 and some of the best form on dead, you couldn’t help but think he can win.
Club Command: Form lines around Speediness have been holding up very well and the 0.5L 3rd looks very strong today. Barrier 11 a major issue but if you overlook that, off 53.5kg he looks very strong today. 1 win 2 places on slow and last prep did win on heavy.
Magnifique Soleil: Huge odds today considering he is 1/1 first up from 2 starts, 2/2 from 5 at distance and is 1/1 from 2 on heavy. Ignore last two starts of last prep when beyond his distance… massive overs as long as he gets slots in from the barrier.
Rockpecker: Good enough run last start but has to find 2 lengths today. Never won on heavy.
Overtake: Down 2kg today off a very good run last start when blocked for runs. 4 wins on Heavy in past including last prep win at course on heavy. Speed maps well enough.
Shadowfax: Won 1 from 6 first up but won 3 from 8 at distance. Won 1/1 on Heavy and last win in 2011 was on slow. Went close two preps back but last prep not good enough. Hard to see today from the barrier.
Le Remas: Not going good enough to win today sadly.
Big Bear Rock: Big win last start. No form to speak of outside of Good tracks. Last start was very impressive. Down 3kg today. Very much in this.
Briefed: Never placed in this class. Goes well on rain affected tracks but this looks a step above him, even after the impressive win last start.
Octavanus: Not good enough for this.
Tequila Queen: Not going well enough.
Quaddie leg three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 13
Strategy: Might sit this one out.. many chances here.
Sandown Race 8
Gybe: Goes well on Heavy on form lines and likes slow also.. but last two starts have been average at best. Looks poorly weighted all things considered.
Rememba Howe: Could sneak a place on Heavy Form… but needs to improve on first up run.
Dayita: Ran well enough first and second up but has to find a few extra lengths.
Streets Of Seattle: Never won first up or at this distance. Looking for further.
Rock Princess: Won 4 from 5 on Heavy previously. Won 3 from 9 at distance and last few runs were not the worst you have ever seen. Won 3 from 5 at track. Looks suited today off 54kg. Only issue is 0/0 from 3 at class.
Danish Whiskey: Has won first up previously but only placed 1 from 7 races at class. Never won on heavy or slow.
Dowager Queen: Been poor this prep. Suited by heavy tracks but not sure is going well enough.
Champagne Ruby: Last two runs have been horrible. The horse goes very well on slow tracks so suggest can go well on heavy. Hard to see the progression today from the last two runs.
Ominous Quality: Missed the start the last two runs before spell. Never won first up but always placed. Never won at distance. Won 1 from 5 at class. Never won at track and never placed on slow or heavy… but goes ok on them I would suggest.
Songbird Lane: Would suggest she was lucky to win last start. Up in class and poorly weighted today. Does go well on slow/heavy but has to find 2-3 lengths today for mine.
Orlando’s Bride: Form behind Imoto and Notice Received was franked during the week. Only issue is she doesn’t have the best form on heavy.
Spot On Maggie: Ran ‘ok’ last start but we expected more. Hard to see the step up today on heavy.
Unscrupulous: Weighted fairly poorly today with this jump in class. No real form on heavy to go off but slow last start didn’t look the best.
Girls On Film: Big win last start. Hard to see the progression again today though.
Quaddie leg four 4, 6, 11, 13
Strategy: I will be getting in my car early and starting the drive down to Geelong to watch the football. The race offers up no value and the form lines are suspect at best. I couldn’t back anything here and the Quaddie would be the only reason I could care about the race (watch it on replays).
Race 5 Rosehill
Two that stand out here at a price. Glad You Called with Grace claiming 3kg today down to 53.5kg. Ran 4th to Keiths Legacy two runs back and previous to those runs has been going very well including a listed 3rd and open 2nd. This is a step down in class and loosk suited on speed maps.
The other runner here is Magnolia Lane from barrier 4. Will need to get a split late, but went close to Nothing Like Luca last start which is form lines I expect to hold up down the track.
Strategy: Back Glad You Called E/W and Magnolia Lane for 0.5 units to win.
A fairly open race but there is a horse here just flying that you can’t ignore.
Honourable Aussie absolutely dominated a fairly decent field last start at Canterbury and down 4.5kg today looks very much suited here. From barrier 3 can push forward and will be very hard to beat. Has won 3 of last five runs with a close 1L 3rd and one fail on Heavy.
Strategy: Happy to back straight out for the win.. but if you prefer you can go E/W.
You know that I rate Index Linked highly, but last start was run to suit with a crazy tempo out the front and Index Linked was by far the best swooper in the race. There isn’t many front runners which could mean there is no speed in this race today and they could get some VERY cheap sectionals out the front making it very hard to come from the back.
I’m probably not going to touch this race very hard if I do, but Too Hi Tek down to 54kg today looks massive overs off the first run at the E/W odds while Calvo could steal it from the front.
Eagle Farm Race 3
I am happy to overlook Quintessential in this race. The form lines of Lights of Heaven and Manighar stack up better here today.
Moody has two runners here who both look like they are back to their best. You would have expected LOH to win last start if he was to win here again today… but Manighar actually beat him home JUST in a very tight photo.
Every runner has a chance here today but Manighar looks to get the gun run on the speed map and should have an easier run than LOH which means he gets the nod from me.
Strategy: Very happy to back Manighar here and saver LOH.
Eagle Farm Race 7
Dear Demi looks exposed here for mine today. Nolen jumps off to ride something for Moody while Rawiller gets the ride.
My pick for the race is Vaquera. Gets the gun run today and should simply pinch the race!
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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