Welcome to The Profits ‘Quick and Dirty’ racing form for Sunday at Sandown. What a day yesterday proved to be. The form just stacked up and even though our two best bets didn’t land, everything else was on song including the Quaddie that paid $5530 ($75 took 24%). The card today at Sandown is too hard to ignore so I am giving you my quick thoughts on each race. Confidence is no where near as high as a Saturday race day. I hope you form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Sandown Race 5 Aliberani
Next Best
Sandown Race 8 Mumbeilly
Best Value
Sandown Race 6 Tycoon Express
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Sandown Race 2
Are There Any is the stand out on potential but this is a much harder race than first up. No heavy form is the issue.
Perfect Offering has gone close the last two starts including a run on heavy.
May Rain ran very well two back on Heavy and then last start got close to She Can Skate. Could improve again.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: May Rain and Perfect Offering.
Sandown Race 3
Bashboy if a $1.40 favourite here for a reason.. he is the best horse in this race by a few lengths at very least and more importantly, is actually weighted much better today against Cats Fun who ran 2nd to him last start.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: If you can find $1.50, that does seem fairly reasonable for this class of horse in this race.
Sandown Race 4
Looks to be a battle between Macedonian, Wells and Black and Bent.
Macedonian was unlucky not to win last start and you would expect he has trained on and the extra 1.5kg advantage today against Wells could be enough.
Wells is an interesting one. Jumped $2.90 favourite last start and raced well without impressing. The weight evens this one up.
Black and Bent ran 4th behind the two favourites last start and meets Wells better at the weights while he was close to Macedonian. Don’t count him out.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Backed Macedonian last start and sticking with him
Sandown Race 5
Readings for the Hayes yard has shown enough form on slow to suggest she can handle the heavy today. Always runs a solid race and the distance suits.
Aliberani is the one to watch here. Loves a heavy track and has won 3 from 5 at track. Previous run 2nd to Rock Princess was franked on Saturday with Rock Princess winning at Caulfield. Weighted well enough here.
Spirit Will is a genuine contender today. Goes well enough on heavy and won last two including beating Mumbeilly by 0.1L, just like Aliberani did two back by 0.2L.
High Aims is another who interests on recent form. 2 wins 2 places from 4 on Heavy.
Confidence: 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 6, 7
Strategy: Very happy to be backing Aliberani here today while I WILL be savering Spirit Will who looks the main threat.
Sandown Race 6
Hotham Heights: Ran very well last start 2nd at Moonee Valley. Has good wet form and is a contender off 57kg today after claims. Never missed a place at track.
Brian’s Honour: Down from Sydney again. Deserved a win this prep up in Sydney and gets the track to suit today. Is 1 from 1 at track and is weighted well enough to win this today. Look to run two back at Randwick when went close.
Sir Fernando: Only ran fairly last start after missing the kick and going back. Sits further forward today and can’t be discounted on first up run.
Set and Forget: Has some heavy form to speak of but last three runs have been horrible. Hard to have here off last few runs.
Regalmania: Went close here two back on heavy and has strong enough wet form. Weighted well today but needs to find much more than last start at MV.
Supreme Warrior: Won well last start at course and distance but gives 3kg to Regalmania who got close. Not sure he will measure up to class today.
Balzeus: 1 from 1 on heavy but can’t see a win off any of recent form.
Ortaygna: No form this prep until last start. Not sure how to rate that race, probably not well off all these horses. Happy to go around this horse today.
Ben Zena: 1 win from 1 on heavy but hasn’t shown anything this prep.
Tycoon Express: Ran very well last start at Caulfield and probably should have won the Open class race. Weighted well enough again today. Only concern is ground.
Smackdown: Never shown anything strong on wet ground including a fairly poor run this prep in similar class. Needs to find much more today to compete here.
Big Buddie: Weighted very well in this class but hasn’t gone well enough this prep to back him.
Confidence: 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 9, 10, 14
Strategy: Big fan of Brian’s Honour and i’m happy to follow him down here in Melbourne. I will be having smaller size bets on Hotham Heights and the most interesting runner Tycoon Express.
Sandown Race 7
This is a pretty open race. I’m not a massive fan but two stand out at the top.
Hard Romp won well in MUCH harder company two back on heavy winning well off similar weights. Goes back down in weight here and is a massive price on that alone.
Prelusive Strike ran well enough last start at Moonee Valley to suggest he can also go close today if shows previous heavy form.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 9
Strategy: Backing Hard Romp and lesser bet Prelusive Strike.
Sandown Race 8
Heavily open race this one.
Lethal Arrow: I love this horse and he loves it wet. he gets that here today and always produces great front running rides. He is over the odds on his previous form lines including 2 wins from 3 attempts at track.
Lonhruge: Disappointing last start but two back on heavy won at course and similar distance. Weighted well enough again today.
Bitola: 2nd 2nd and then 1st on heavy ground here.. just keeps running well and weighted well enough again today. Barrier hurts the horse but will go very close again today.
Mumbeilly: Beaten home JUST in last two starts by Spirited Will and Aliberani. One of those should win a race eariler today to trump this form. The one to beat.
Halfblood Prince won a heavy track 1500m at sale last start. Down 8kg today gives him a very strong chance.
Eleuther: Consistent runner. Needs to find more but is a chance.
Bachelor Royal: Come up the short priced favourite?!!? Not sure how. The form lines are only fair and I can’t see any reason why I would back him today over the others.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 9, 11, 12, 13, 15
Strategy: Mumbeilly on top from Bitola with Halfblood Prince the spec of the race
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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