Welcome to the Wednesday form for Sandown on 28 August 2013. Sandown has been blessed with a 10 race card which has thrown up a few interesting races, including the jumps of course. There are three races that stood out and were worth having a look at at least a runner in each. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Sandown Race 7 Captain Fancypantz
Next Best
Sandown Race 9 Brian’s Honour
Best Value
Warwick Farm Race 4 Sari
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Sandown Race 3
I don’t claim to be an expert on the jumps races, but Bashboy looks very very very short tomorrow. I would be willing to lay the horse based on the below information.
I am predicting a Dead or Good track tomorrow. The horse has won 0 races and placed 0 races on Good tracks from 5 attempts, won 1 race and placed 3 times from 12 on a Dead track. So yes, the horse has won 1 from 17 on Good or Dead. It is quite fair to look back over BashBoy’s career and suggest that all of those Good and Dead were over 1600-2000m which is half what the horse needs, but there were slow and heavy runs thrown in and around the horse which were better than those on dryer tracks.
Bashboy is a superstar. There is no doubt, but he is also giving up 10 to 10.5kg to every runner in the race today. That is a hell of alot of weight to give up on a surface not suited to the horse.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Not getting carried away. Bashboy could win by 5-10 lengths, but the price screams wrong on all the information above and I will be having a small lay.
Sandown Race 7
Open the ‘Black Book’ and Captain Fancypantz hits you square in the face. We were happy to have him on top in a harder race on Saturday at a similar price and I was a bit surprised to see the same price today.
Captain Fancypantz should get a significantly better ride today from barrier 8 where you can expect Lane to have him sitting 1 out and 2-3 back. He shouldn’t be blocked by a wall of horses today and the track condition should suit more today.
Castlzeberg looks the danger for mine in the race. You have no idea what to expect from this 3Y-GP2 NZ placed horse. he won by 6 lengths in his maiden over the distance and proved to enjoy not so much rain in the ground. Williams takes the ride as well. Most important part is that he speedmaps to be the only true leader and could sneak some very cheap sectionals.
Finally, it is hard to count out Bia Diamond who improved last start behind Textn Hurley and is well weighted today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing Captain Fancypantz and savering Castlzeberg
Sandown Race 9
A tough race, but there is a runner here I have been following for a while in Brian’s Honour. His last two runs have had reasons to forgive the horse with two back losing a plate and leading up. Last start was blocked for a run and still ran 3rd behind Pakal. Down in class massively today and maps very well. Most have him leading up.. but I can also see Dunn taking a sit behind Lord Durante which I think would also suit. I also feel back down to 1400m from 1600m should suit more on a dryer track.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Brian’s Honour looks to be a great E/W bet today.
Warwick Farm Race 4
It’s not often I head over during the week to a Sydney race, but there is a progressive type I rate highly 3rd up this prep having a second run around Warwick Farm.
Sari was very progressive last prep down in Melbourne with a 0.1L loss behind General Peekay, 2.3L 3rd to Lonhspresso and finally winning by 1.8L at Moonee Valley over 1200m in significantly harder class than this.
First up she started poorly but ran on ‘ok’ at Flemington before heading up to Sydney for a 0.8L 2nd. Robl off and McEvoy on today.. Barrier 9 will hopefully get a sit 1 out and 2 back or so and be there at the finish.
The one to watch in this race for mine is Green Beret who was solid last prep and has been off over a year.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: I like the look of Sari here and the price screams out Each-Way.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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