Horse Racing Form for Warwick Farm and Bendigo Saturday 16 March 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for Bendigo and Warwick Farm. Well it was great to get back on track this week with our Wednesday Best Bet getting up and Sari our Best Bet at $12 which came into $7 at jump getting up as well. There are big fields and I suspect when I wake up in the morning to adjust scratchings, I will be adjusting confidence levels and getting rid of a few runners in each race. As always, I hope your form matches up with ours! Good Luck and Happy Punting.

Best Bet
Warwick Farm Race 5 Cathay Lady

Next Best
Bendigo Race 7 Ranked

Best Value
Bendigo Race 8 General Peekay

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Bendigo Race 1
Valedictorian: Ran well two runs back but then was outmatched last start. Down 1.5kg today after claim.
Muhaajir: Progressive horse who comes into this race well. Big win last start infront of a classy runner.
Chile Express: Hard to see the progression here today off recent runs.
Verification: Ran fair last start. Down 4kg today and meets Coghills Creek 5kg better off. A chance on weights.
Coghills Creek: Up 1kg today for a very strong win over Xavi who had been flying. Won’t get the speedlane today and is a different task.
Keepher Close: Hard to have on first up run.
Motto’s Gem: Too wide last start. Did win two back at course and distance. Has a lot of ability and weighted ok today off 55kg.
Black Booty: Good win in lesser class last start. Needs to improve.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Not overly confident in the first. Might be a watch and see. Cog and Muh could burn each other out front and set it up for a swooper like Motto’s Gem.

Bendigo Race 2
Unchain My Heart: Ran well enough last start and down in grade toady. Got a big chance today.
Aggregator: Super disappointing last start and down 3kg today up in class. has the ability just needs to get a run.
Suspended Gem: Big win last start at Sandown, but beat home horses who wouldn’t win this and it was on Heavy. Does have franked form around Vittoria though and Lucy Lil!
Angola: Back down in winable grade today and off 54kg looks suited. Big chance.
Loukoumi: Was found out last start. Looks another hard race today.
Rive Gauche: Just keeps running well without winning. Weighted to go close.
Tigeriffic: Showed nothing this prep. Hurdles is the go.
Sky Flyte: Good strong win last start but this is a step up.
Blakeley: Another who looks outclassed today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Small go on Suspended Gem. Form lines are solid enough to be winning this.

Bendigo Race 3
Stars In The Sky: Poor run to finish the prep last start in GP1 company but previous to that ran well enough in GP3 company. Weight looks a little harsh but can run well.
Formidable: Went too fast first up. Needs to find form that hasn’t been there in a long time. Back in class helps.
Tricky Glen: Good first up win running on and down 1.5kg today. Has ability and good chance.
Zounite: Moody runner who seems to have ability. Like to see in the ring.
Iriomote: Unlucky not to get up last start when running well. Up 1kg today.
Falcent: Very strong form lines from last start and will be pushing forward. Has chances.
Lil Red Corvette: Ran on very well behind Easy To Look At last start and previous to that behind We Own An Angel. Down 2.5kg today. Could be value.
Momentary: Hard to have on last start run but weighted ok if improves.
Yellow Jersey: Maiden winner only. Has ability but not this.
Yuleba: Big prep so far. Won two and then 5L behind Norzita not the worst form really.
Melting Pot: Hard to have here unless you know something!
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Small win bet

Bendigo Race 4
Del Palio: Been off several months but when was running around last start was running very close to breaking through in listed company behind very strong runners. Has won first up and at distance.
Johnnydrama: Poor first up and hard to see the progression.
The Minster: Has ability but not showing it this prep. May find something.
Livigno: Ignore last two runs last prep and look to two previous. Can go close today if produces first up.
Rifleman: Ignore last start on heavy when not suited. 2kg worse off today against Planet Voyage hard to overcome.
Planet Voyage: Ran on well enough last start and down in class today. Has ability and weighted to win.
Delegance: Just keeps running well enough and going close. Will be there at the end again.
Felidea: Won well to finish off last start prep. Much harder today but showed class.
Spot On Maggie: Ignore last start and look to previous runs. 54kg looks fair here! Hit the line hard.
L’Esprit: Injured first up so have to forgive. Has ability to run well.
Legion’s Belle: Didn’t show much last prep. Hard to have.
Sleepers: Not on previous form.
Cherish Harmony: Won well enough last two starts. Harder class today though.
Consecrate: Hard to see a win here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Many a chances here. Probably best to sit out if you don’t want to be going wide in the betting market.

Bendigo Race 5
I am not even going to attempt this race. It wouldn’t be well researched enough and even then, you need to make phone calls into each horse. Better races to come guys and gals!

Bendigo Race 6
Secret Liaison: Huge win last start at Caulfield and up in grade today and up 1.5kg looks a little harsh, but she should handle it and go close anyway!
Beautiful Buns: Beat Rebel Bride two back. Looks suited by a good track. Massive overs and good chance today.
Chateau Margaux: Ran 2nd in a Group 3 running on late and previous to that was putting in huge runs over and over. Has won first up and goes well at the distance even though may be looking for further. Has the ability.
Total Attraction: Ran ok first up but hard to see the improvement.
Avionics: Went well enough first up and down 1.5kg today with Williams going on, can go well.
Two Hills: Not up to this class on previous form.
Booklet: Never won at distance but does go well at track never missing a place from 3 runs.
Oriental Ruby: Big run last start and previous to that. Back to 1400m suits and weighted nicely.
Valrouz: Thought she was lucky winning last start and up in class today up 1.5kg a ltitle harsh.
Minnie Downs: Last start looked to be an ignore race. Was run at a slowy pace and also previous to that. This should have more in it today.
Aneto: Big win on heavy first up. Looks to have the progression.
Crystalised: Wasn’t good enough first up.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Fairly confident on Beautiful Buns here 3 to place 1 to win ratio!

Bendigo Race 7
Wall Street: Ran well enough last start but should hve been able to make up the distance when got out. Up 5kg today and may find another one or two too good again.
Folding Gear: Ran well enough last start, but happy to be on others. Needs further.
Jet Away: Ran well enough in England. Should run well at distance.
Eraset: Finished off strongly but has to improve again today.
Over Quota: Looks like he is coming to the end of his prep.
Prizum: Did’t show much first up but can run well second up if produces last prep form.
Zabisco: Horse that is hot and cold. Hard to tell which one comes out today.
Streaky Fella: Never won first up.
Ranked: Very classy runner who can go very close today. Weighted to win when you consider is down from GP3 level races.
New York: Gone backwards the last two starts. Hard to see the upside again. .. but should go forward.
Snow Cover: Not good enough last start and up in class hard to find..
Galileo Gold: Disappointing prep this. Hard to have.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 12
Strategy: Really like the form of Ranked and looks a good thing going forward. To place looks value!

Bendigo Race 8
Pronto Pronto: Ran ok first up and then ran on ok second up. Hard to see here with speed map though.
Grand Emperor: Good win two back but found out last start. Back down in class today and has a chance.
Ninth Legion: Beat home horses in lesser company last start. Hard to see the step up in class and up 0.5kg being successful but will go close.
General Peekay: Beat home Sari two back and then last start at Caulfield ridden incorrectly. Will try and push forward today and is a big chance.
Clinton Affair: Strong win last start. A few horses today that could frank form.
Floatmyboat: Hard to have on run this prep.
Escado: 2.5l, 2l behind hvasstan and philippi and then 4.5L behind fiveandahalfstar last prep. This form looks to be solid and will run close again today.
Adjuster: Keeps going close and finding a few too good. May go close againt today.
Bradman: Hard to see the progression to this class but does have a chance.
Force Command: Hard to see the horse getting over from barrier 18 to slow in for a good run.
Swipeline: Couldn’t back on previous runs.
Snip The Dancer: Hard to back on last start.
Lonrockstar: Can go well off previous form but not favourite.
Delagos: Solid last start but this much harder.
Churchill Express: Big run adn win first up. Down 3.5kg a little harsh in this class.
Bishops Castle: Not keen here.
Tiryns: Failed last two runs.
Tronador: Not good enough.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 5, 7, 9, 15
Strategy: General Peekay with strong form around Sari. Could be value.

Bendigo Race 9
Anudjawun: Not good enough here.
Le Bonsir: Huge run and win last start at Morphetville. Back in class today up 3.5kg after claim, has every chance and will go very close. Only issue is barrier.
My Bentley: Hard to see the progression today first up as never won first or second up. Needs the run.
Its Prince: Not won since 2011. Like the horse but can’t have.
The Big Steel: Can’t be on this anymore. Not good at this distance.
Giresun: Very unlucky not to win last start. Down in class and up 2.5kg. Big chance.
Oregon Spirit: 11 runs never won from this distance and only once first up. Weighted to win but needs a lot of luck.
Clanga’s Glory: Ran well enough last start behind Ninth Legion. Down 3.5kg today and rated to go close.
Devils Force: Doesn’t look good enough..
Tumbulgum: Not good enough.
Golago:Ran on well first up. Looking for further.
General Offer: Keeps putting in solid runs and has a 3.5L win over Alert The Jewller. Could be value.
Aashiq: Won nicely last start at Sandown but this looks much harder.
Plucky Belle: Didn’t show enough first up for me to back here.
Sysmo: Has ability but wants further.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 6, 8 14
Strategy: Hard to go past Le Bonsir on last run and price looks value now. Happy to take on General Offer but certainly keep in Quaddies.

Warwick Farm

Warwick Farm Race 1
Marden has opened the favourite here and we are happy to have another go at him. Even better at the weights today and rates to win.
Confidence 75%

Warwick Farm Race 2
First starter for Moody in Mahican looks a very good thing while Fuerza will be running on late. Going to be taking on Good Job Bro but he will be going close.
Confidence 70%

Warwick Farm Race 3
Two key runners for us here. The main one is Limes. Has only won a maiden but went super close last prep down in Melbourne. Has won first up and is super progressive. Weighted to win today. The other is our favourite Medusa’s Miss. Off 54kg today gets a solid run and will be hitting the line very hard. Has every chance.
Confidence 75%

Warwick Farm Race 4
Assail looks to be something good. Hard to be on anything else here.
Confidence 80%

Warwick Farm Race 5
Miss StellaBelle always runs well first up and is a huge chance today while Cathay Lady has the best form int he race and is weighted to win.
Confidence 80%

Warwick Farm Race 6
It’s a Dundeel: Huge late run last start but still ended 3.5L off. Overstated run IMO. Won’t get the same straight to run down here.
Tatra: Looked like an ignore run last start but hard to have him either way with Lunar Rise looking poor on return.
Proisir: Big run last start and is one of the horses to watch.
Ferlax: Big win last start and is now a very nice colt with great form lines. Can run well.
Tougher Than Ever: Hard horse that battles on forever.
Sacred Falls: Couldn’t touch on first up run.
Rebel Dane: Huge is the word. Can’t believe the price we are getting today also. Only issue is the barrier.
Proverb: Hard to have on last start.
Solemn: Can’t see it.
Casino Swoop: Shouldn’t be in this.
Shawano: Can’t even win a maiden????
Confidence 80%

Warwick Farm Race 7
Hay List: Hay List been off a year due to injury after being beaten by Foxwedge (which I said couldn’t happen haha). 1/1 at track and certainly the class in the race. Looks the right price.
Template Of Boom: Good first up record but this looks much harder than ever. Only placed once from 6 at class.
Atomic Force: Very strong behind Buffering last prep. Has ability.
Decision time: Progressive type who hasn’t run since 2011. Was in Group class winning. Hard to measure this.
Tiger Tees: Very strong trial and could be value. My issue is the weight.
Golden Archer: Was very strong to the line behind Black Cav last start and should improve here today.
Second Effort: Hard to have on runs last start.
Howmuchdoyouloveme: Showed nothing up in the weights. No thanks.
Mrs Onassis: Huge huge huge run at Caulfield and looks suited here today even though up 4kg. Can go well.
Fire Thunderbolt: Harshly treated at the weights here. Hard to have.
Snitzerland: Every chance today on previous form.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Happy to go with two at odds that I have the most confidence in.

Warwick Farm Race 8
Very hard race to finish the day. Sables has claims and goes well here it looks. Thy has some super form lines to go off of and looks weighted to win while Ominous Quality will be going close also.
Confidence 60%

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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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