Horse Racing Form – Friday 23 March 2012 – Moonee Valley

A cracking field for Moonee Valley races. Let’s try and pick a few winners to pay for a nice long weekend. Check back Saturday morning for our form for Caulfield and a look at some of the Sydney races also.

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to any pick that we will be having a saver bet on or specing for a small amount.

Race 1
First Course is back down to  a grade it has a chance in. Has run some really good races in the past but seems to be off it’s best. Can’t have.
Another good horse out of Fastnet Rock, Fast and Free will be hard to hold out here from a good barrier.
A big threat in this race, Gogonski has run two great races over distance and looks suited here.
Now You Know has come back this prep a little underdone. Was a good 2nd run win but the last two runs have been poor. Could return back to best here.
Don’t discount Friday Hussy. Has some decent form and is looking for the 1600m. Will sit in good position and only concern is weight. Arnold on board is bonus.
Sleep’N Pete is an interesting runner with has beaten one of the favs in this race previous in a maiden last year. Since then ran very well 4th 2.8L blocked for run behind Proliferate who has been a gun since then. Ignore first up start, overs at the price.

Race 2
These 3000m races are always hard. Let’s start with the top of the market.
Our Serena gave a great run last time out 2nd to Dunken Sailor who went on to record a 2nd in the Adelaide Cup so the form stakes up. Down in class and only up 1kg.
Montgomery‘s last two runs were massive. Has been very unlucky not to win and looks like the extra 500m will suit with 2/2 from 4 record at distance. Well treated in this race with weight also.
Vivid Vixen has been very poor this Prep but back down to a very winable class with 6/5 from 16. Can’t discount but first go over 3000 and high weight means we can’t touch.
Rowland was very disappointing at Bendigo and can’t touch it here.
Aiglon is the most interesting runner here. Equal class and down 0.5kg for a win last time out (strange). Good form line with 2 back 0.1L to Rock Of Ages and looks to be coming on this run out.
Robrick ran well last week to Jelly Baby and comes in with two good runs before that. Looks to be wanting the longer distance 3000m run. Has a shot here at decent odds.
Finally, Pride of Coupez comes in well suited here. Interesting that Newitt got off the horse though.

Race 3
There has been a big go for Sharnee Rose in this race and I agree it is a great horse, had it last run but at this short price, it’s a bit short. It won’t sit dead last either and will be forced to go forward.
American Dream put down a big run last up and was unlucky not to win. Will be positioned at the front and Williams onboard is very handy..
Sir Fernando is a very well bred horse who won well last up. Has a great line of form behind Adamantium 4 back as well.
Buzzing Along has some good form down south. If you fancy Lady Lynette in the later race then this could be a value runner for you. Only problem is that it generally comes from the back.
Win wouldn’t surprise from Redangelo but can’t touch.
Cash Bound will have to come from the back. Has the ability but can’t back it.
The big overs in this race is Horacio. A horse with a good form line. Forgive the first up run when injured in the race, suited to this distance and could beat them all.

Race 4
Queen Delight comes into this race as favourite and on form deserves it. Good run out last time beaten by the well backed Panipique.
General Truce is a quality horse who runs well here with 1 win 3 places from 4 at MV. Claiming 3 and down to lowest weight in a long time 53.5kg combined with 4/6 from 13 at distance, the horse will be hard to beat. Must bet 1 win unit to 2 place units.
Love us a bit of young Katie onboard a horse and Far Horizons down to 53.5kg has a shot here with 3 places from 4 at track. Only concern is a 2 places from 5 starts at distance.
If Translation can produce close to what it produced three runs back, it can win this. Will be pushed to the front of the field and has had nearly 2 months off the track. One to watch out for.

Race 5
Let’s start with the toppie Empress Rock. Great form lines and a huge win last start. Looks suited to win this.
Total Attraction ran a very good race last start. If there isn’t such a huge pace on in this race, could turn the cards around and win this.
Torah and Twilighting are both good horses but both get too far back for this.
Our Miss Jones has some very handy form lines with a 2.8L loss behind Atlantic Jewel and 0.5L behind Glows here last up. Massive runs from the back and if the pace is allowing a swoop, consider.

Race 6
Hay List got us the chocolates last run and it will be hard to defeat here. Almost every horse in this race is worse off weight wise than last start against him.
There are two interesting runners in this race. The first is Woorim who has put down some massive runs this prep. Expect to see him steaming home late.
The second is one of our favourites in Mid Summer Music. Just go check out it’s form. 9 wins 6 places from 18 starts. 1 win 1 place from 2 in this place and runs very well first up with 3 wins 1 place from 4. When you consider the 4 runs apart from the Black Caviar race were 1 win and 3 loses of 1.3L or less to horses the class of Sincero, Pinker Pinker, Sister Madly, then this horse is with a chance.
You can get on Woorim and Mid Summer Music at around $8.50 and $12.50 to win this race on PYOL on Centrebet with no Hay List in race.

Race 7
One of the hardest races of the day.
Let’s start with one of our favourite horses Spirit Song. Expect to get around $12.50 at jump. 7 run sthis prep for 5 wins and 2 2nds (0.5L and 0.8L loses). Up 3KG and gives quite a bit to Lady and Hi Belle. 1600 is the horses perfect distance and does run well here.
Lady Lynette comes into this race down 1.5kg. Didn’t see enough in it’s last run to see it reverse form to get up.
Marveen put down a great run last up and was blocked for it’s run. Up in weight may be it’s only issue.
Absolutely is a group 1 winner (3.5L) and had a horrible prep last time out. Doesn’t run well first up but could surprise after a good spell.
Hi Belle comes into this race really well on weight. How it runs depends on tactics. If they want to win on it, got to push it forward to top 3/4. Has a big shot here.
Group 3 winner Raspberries ran well first up ti win by 2.3l. Has a great class and distance record, don’t discount here.
Not a fan of Booklet’s recent runs and happy to leave it out.
Finally, Secuded ran on well last start also but think it will not be given a run to win this and the weight is the issue.

Race 8
A fairly hard race for the final leg of the Quaddie and get out stakes.
Laspiel has come into form recently winning some strong races. The connections have decided to take it down to 1200 which is interesting.. It may be suited here and could be big value.
Too Deadly is a horse with great potential. Runs well first up and has 2/2 from 5 over distance record. The big downside is 0 wins from 13 starts at class (4 places). Can’t be on it.
Del Palio has won it’s last 3 runs and they have all been quality. The track is a big question with 0/0 from 2 and a horse that swoops.. be careful backing it!
It’s Crunch Time should be more suited to this race than Del Palio. Having won 3 of last 4 and 0.8L loss to Del Palio, the bias of MV should help this horse run well.
Dubawi Gold will be pushing forward for the lead. Has some slowish times on form so will be hard to keep this one. Only advantage is Katie on board claiming, she will give it a great ride.
The two most interesting runners at odds are Kiaola and Ladramahs.
Kiaola is returning from nearly 5 months off and has won first up before. Bred out of Fastnet Rock and has run some decent times. Barrier suits and started under $7.50 last 5 runs all in close to equal class. Should have trained on.
Ladramahs has 1 win and 2 places from 4 starts at distance. Looking back through the form, the horse has a 5L win in a 11 horse race and 2L win the race after. The 3 races after that were all valid. Dunn booked on board so expect they will give it a run and breeding is very strong.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not       recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed       above. Bet at your own risk.


The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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