Good morning to everyone. Sorry for the late form as it was a big night last night with Geelong winning what was the best finish to a game i’ve ever seen! Onto the horses though! FINALLY the valley is back! Rule number one is look for a horse that will be in the first 4 on the turn. This is usually a good rule to stick by when going over form. We have gone against it in some races due to weights and quality but have stuck to the rule. Good luck and happy Punting!
Moonee Valley Race 7 – One Last Dance
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Streets Away
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Philda
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
What certainly looks to be a race of three horses, this is harder than it looks.
King’s Pardon was massive first up but you have to wonder if he can produce the same finish off a slow track and 59kg. You do get the feeling that the step up to 1200m will suit him.
Planet Voyage has been nothing but consistent. Won well last start over 1000m and fell 0.1L short to Kings Pardon two runs back. Off 58kg so 1.5kg better off on King’s Pardon but you question if 1200 is his perfect length or not. You would bet your money on Moody knowing what he is doing.
Finally, Rusambo has been in horrible form the last three runs but in much harder class. Every time he has had an excuse and they keep trying with this horse. Back in class is the first step to getting him a win and he has the potential to produce. Was hugely speced last run first up and produced Nada. Watch and see for this one.
Moonee Valley Race 2
A very open race with a few chances.
Starting with Bombalatomba. Back down in class again and back to 1200m suits. Had a good run first up and was blocked for run. This is an easier race and is weighted well here with Bossy on board. Only concern is the run on the turn.
There has always been big talk around for Tokugawa who has only managed five starts to date. 54kg looks solid.
Bellissimo ran a very solid race last start and this looks so different. The step back in trip is what he is looking for and expect to go forward and run this out strongly.
Lord of Brazil has been ruling the track as of late. Two quality runs in last three.. the only problem is how far he gets back here and is from barrier 1. Happy to look elsewhere.
Valedictorian loves the valley and always gets a good run on this track. Big issue is back to 1200m which doesn’t seem to be his favourite but has won first up before and 1 win 1 place on slow.
Rebel Truce has been putting in big runs with quality form lines this start.. Will certainly be there at the end but will be tough from speedmap.
God’s Window comes in with winning form. Another step up in class and 57kg looks a little harsh. Barrier 4 suits here going forward but think the 1200m isn’t optimum.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Hard race to pick with so many runners but we have got it down to a few.
Streaky Fella has been super the last three runs. Down in class and still off 58kg after a claim helps big time. The extra distance shouldn’t be a problem and he will go very well here.
GeeJayHaitch is worth a mention due to being well weigthed off 53.5kg. Worth a look into.
Interesting booking of Newitt on Doosra Diamond. Last win was at course and distance but hasn’t done much the last few starts.. may have been waiting for this.
Gotta Take Care has been hurdling very well and runs well over this distance. You can’t say he has no chance here.
Crafty Cruiser is the best weighted horse in this race off 51.5kg. You have to at least saver this horse if you are backing in this race something not him!
North Lodge has turned things around and off 53kg is right in this.
Moonee Valley Race 4
The Long Road simply impressed us last start and comes down in class here off 55.5kg which is respectable. All depends how track is treating those coming from the back but she is solid.
Orchard Street maps very well into this race but we are not impressed with her form. Will need to improve to win this.
Rock Princess won easily last start beating a fairly average field and comes into this 3kg better off. She will get a nice run and looks value.
If swoopers are running into it early, we will change The Long Road to a 2nd bet.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Everyone is talking up a horse called Phila but I can’t see it winning here. Expect to do your money backing him.
Cosmic Causeway is the one you want to be on here. So unlucky last start got blocked 5 to 6 times finally got out and a 45-1 horse massively improved and got a clear run and won. weighted well and has won at course previously. Loves it wet.
Ignore Streets Away first up run and look to the 1.5L behind Ginga Dude run. As long as they push him forward, he will run very well here.
Finally, Oregon Spirit loves MV and has been in great form. Harder class but off 54kg will be very hard to beat.
Moonee Valley Race 6
So many horses with a chance here.
Domesky is back to a distance he enjoys. Would like to see him in longer but this will suit off 58kg. Only issue is never won on slow.
Placement loves to place on slow tracks with 1 win 4 places from 5 on slow. Handicapper now has this horse weighted correctly but she is still impressive and normally gets an easy run and is leading on the turn. Last run they didn’t follow the strategy. Will be there at the end.
Couldn’t touch Buxted first up. This is much easier than what he has been racing in and 55.5kg is very good but happy to take it on first up on slow.
Banca Mo was super impressive last start. Down 0.5kg for that run here will be very hard to beat with a dream run from barrier 3.
Skky Raider did well last start and will run into this strongly. Concern is the slow track.
Recent runs suggest Dame Claire prefers longer distances but they rode her all wrong last start. If they take her forward here, a serious chance at big odds.
The Cleaner has been going well in tassy in lesser races. This is the testing material, happy to take on.
Finally, Bianmick ran very well last start at Caulfield. Weighted well but has never won on slow or at track. Looks like there will be a speed battle and not sure if he takes it up or sits. If reproduces form will be there at end.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Super disappointed with Galbraith scratched here!
This means Canali gets an easy lead and could get a better run than expected. Don’t like the extra 2kg on his back but if he produces a better run than last start goes very well.
Eagle Falls first time back down in class for a long time and only 60kg is big. Loves MV and runs well here. Never run on Slow so surprised they didn’t scratch him. Worth a bet.
Where to place One Last Dance? Strong form lines for sure with nice times and 54kg is super easy here. Will run well and love the booking of Dunn.
FreeReturn ran well last start and has a perfect record of 2 from 2 here at MV. Showed he is back in form and 54.5kg very good for this horse here.
Broken reversed his form and was good last start on the straight. I’m going to chuck that race out the window and look to other runs. Will go well but think not good enough here.
Finally looking at Unanimously. Disappointed last start but if produces the form that he had behind tiger tees and eight bills at start of year has a chance.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Final race of the day and Rue Maple once again carries a big weight in 58.5kg. Has strong form in this type of class race but very rarely wins with weight on her back.
Stole back at 1200m is very strange. Not sure what to make of this.
Big time off for Simply Put with some good form lines including a win over Mid Summer Music last year. Might be value.
Night War super disappointing jumping badly and losing a plate last start. You can’t just jump off for that run and this is an easier race.
Inablitz and Spurcific have some good form lines but suspect both not well weighted here to win.
Glows is a horse we have followed and got her two runs back at the valley when she won big time. She was our best bet for that day. Comes back well and loves the valley. The big question is with if she handles a slow track. Will go very well.
Total Attraction is another one we like but feel 1200m is too far for what she likes. Happy to be against her here.
Canterbury Race 2
Havana Rey is back to her winning form and comes up against another we love in Lethal Arrow. She will be too strong here and expect a good win.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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