Welcome back to Moonee Valley on a Friday evening! It has been a while since we have seen good fields at ‘Money Valley’ where the front runners constantly get the advantage. Both of our best bets for this evening are of course front runners and they will be extremly hard to pass from their positions in running. There are some cracker fields which should provide some big upsets with many of the short priced favourites being middle to back markers. As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Race 4 Day Procedure
Race 5 Zippa The Rippa (3 units to place 1 to win strategy)
Race 8 Tramuntana
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Hot Testa: Claim of 3kg today up in class again. Couldn’t win a 5 horse race over in Adelaide and looks to be stepping up again. Should run well at the distance but off 57kg looks up against it. Still, you can’t count him out of it.
Shoalhaven: Not good enough last start you feel to be competitive today. Should be getting far back in the run also.
Stable Star: On form lines not good enough for this. Poorly weighted today but could position well enough to have a go.
Grand Daughter: Finally got a well deserved win last start at Sale… previous to that beaten $1.50 and $1.40 favourite. Hard to tell how she will go today in this class… but should certainly go close.
Silver Trinket: Showed enough last start to suggest can run well today.. but does need to improve again.
Captain Smith: Weighted well but not good enough on form.
Drunken Poet: Weighted nicely today but on previous runs can’t win.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Lucky Angel: Won well at track last start and last run at Flemington was super over the 2000m. Has never missed a place from 6 starts at track. Loves the distance and is going great guns!
Streets of Seattle: Up 1.5kg today against Lucky Angel from last start. Will appreciate the MV track.
Rock Robster: Runs well at the track but just keeps not winning at the track. Weighted nicely again today but needs to show a fair bit to win today.
Hidden Message: Weighted poorly today against Rock Robster and on this you just can’t back her here.
Classic Elle: Good run last start at Flemington and previous to that also. Just keeps having excuses. Today could be the day she wins but suspect they are having a throw at the stumps up to 2000m.
Crystalised: Won nicely last start in a much easier class. Up against it today but should appreciate the 2000m
Princess Mossman: Not good enough on form.
Sayangku: Not good enough on previous runs.
Reflect: Hasn’t shown enough on previous runs.
Joy Oh Joy: Shown nothing last two starts.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Cornell: Was average at best first up and then down in class last start was much better behind Khalifa. Will most likely be getting too far back again today but should be running on to the line. Has a chance.
Flashy Fella: Not good enough on first up run to recommend that he can improve on enough to win this. A few more runs needed.
Laspiel: Up to 60kg today. Sure, he is down in class heavily, but doesn’t look to be in good enough form to win today.
Red Eye Special: Seems to be wanting further and not a great first up record.
Gotta Take Care: Never won first up or even placed and never placed at distance. Just looks to be having a run.
Scottish Border: Not going good enough to win this today even down in class.
Little Boy Blue: Will be pushing ahead today and does have a good record at track but not going well enough it seems.
Quick Shakes: Ignore last start when did too much in a race where the front runners pushed the pace. Will get a better ride today from Rawiller and is the one to beat.
Magical King: Up in class today but that was a good win last start at Sandown. Will be positioning forward today again and is in with a big chance..
Astro Damus: Ran on well last start when ridden more cold. Will be getting hard back today but hitting the line late. Will need luck from barrier 1.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Shamexpress: Very solid form lines from last start when 1L behind Nechita (suited by the pace) and 1.5L behind Epaulette the previous run. Will be positing far back and with 60kg, you have to question if he will get the run of the race. I suspect not. .
Diamond Earth: Talented horse but hasn’t been able to find any of that the last two starts. Up in class and up 4kg today. Hard to have.
Day Procedure: Weighted to win today. Beriman gave him a good ride last start but at the 100m the horse lost all momentum and looked to almost fall. Down 3kg today here and suited by the Moonee Valley course.
Flamberge: Hard horse to gauge. King Krovanh wouldn’t be winning this race so suspect the form lines aren’t good enough.
Lamingtons: Disappointing last start at Flemington. Up in class again today but down to 52kg. Weighted to win but won’t get an easy time out front.
Snip The Dancer: Got back in his run last start but was running on well. Meets Day Procedure 1kg worse off today but win wouldn’t shock.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Jackpot Queen: Not shown enough last two starts to suggest is well enough to win today.
Zippa The Rippa: Very strong first up at course and similar distance. Back in class big time today after 3rd to Sumakaray who is a VERY good horse. Weighted nicely off 57kg and from barrier 3 will try and lead this up.
Delegance: Very good win at course and similar distance from start to finish last start. Will be pushing forward again today and will be hard to pass. Big issue is that she is up in class today and up 4.5kg.
Katunga: Won four of last five races coming over from Adelaide after 4 months off. Has never won first up previous but up until last 5 runs had only ever won once previous to that. Has the ability and could be value.
Ready as Elle: Last start course and distance winner in good time. Up in class and equal weight today. Barrier 9 will mean she needs to fit back but does have the ability to win this.
No Vanity: Not good enough for this today it seems on previous form… but training on wouldn’t shock.
She’s Ellie: Progressive type… won well first up and even better second up. This looks a step beyond her today.
Frankly Fast: Doesn’t look good enough to win this today on previous runs.
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 5, 7
Moonee Valley Race 6
Pinwheel: There would be no doubt in anybody’s mind that Pinwheel is the best horse in this race and weighted nicely. The big issue is where he will position from barrier 2. He could be stuck as far back as 4 on the rails. You would expect he sits back two wide though.. but it does happen fast.
Zedi Knight: Hasn’t shown enough in last five runs to suggest had improvement to win this today.
Outlandish Lad: Good win two back but the form lines are not strong. Find this very hard today.
Sea Lord: Meets Undeniably 2kg better off today. Has a perfect 3 from 3 record at the valley and just keeps finding a way to win. From barrier 1 will position perfectly and get a dream run. Don’t discuss just because of weights.
Undeniably: Up against it today on weights but has the ability to go close on previous runs.
KooNooMoo: Progressive type who produced some massive runs last start. Expect her to have improved onwards here to be in with a big chance. Can position forward to take a sit.
Bonnie Mac: Gone backwards the last three runs and will find this hard today.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 5, 6, 7
Moonee Valley Race 7
Grand Ducal: Not going good enough for this.
Altonio: Has been running in better company than last start at Sandown and finally got a well deserved win. Back up in class today but has a shot.
Campeao: Meets Altonio 2kg better off today. Has the ability to run well but needs to find more than last start.
High Kingczar: Improved big time last start up to 3000m. In equal class today back down to 2500m… this does look much harder.
Readings: Meets horses that beat her last start worse off at the weights, but was ridden strangely out the back last start. If is taken forward today will be hard to pass.
Amalgamate: Can’t have today on previous runs. Looks to be too far up in class.
Relentless: Not good enough on previous runs. Has to find another length or so today.
Aggregator: Decent runs recently but too many excuses. A big step up.
Quaddie leg three: 2, 3, 4, 5
Moonee Valley Race 8
Le Bonsir: Good win last start at course and distance but meets It Is Written 3kg worse off today. Up in class but has ability. Issue is barrier 10.
Tramuntana: Last two runs have been very sold in this class. Down 0.5kg today and on recent runs has a chance. Looks to be big overs in this race!
Emboldened: On recent runs it is hard to have him today. Should run a nice race though.
Flyingconi: Didn’t show enough any of his runs this prep to make him backable today.
Stratigraphy: A solid performer whose form lines stack up nicely. Biggest issue is that he sits about midfield and will need to swoop wide.
Tackleberry: Ignore last start at Flemington and look to previous runs. Beat home Khalifa very well two back at Sandown. Weighted better today and can win.
Highness: Up in class today but won very well last start in Adelaide. Has to find a length or two more but can compete today.
Don’t Wake Me: Ran well two back to win at Caulfield but last start was disappointing. Hard to have.
Our Protocol: Ran very well last start behind Stratigraphy and has the ability to go close again today. Big issue is barrier 9.
Xavi: Weighted nicely today and if trained on could be a bit of value.
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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