Welcome to The Profits last form guide for the year. It has been a year of ups and downs for our form and also for the racing industry. As always, we hope our form has helped you improve your ability to pick a winner and to enjoy life. Two decent cards today at Canterbury and Moonee Valley with the card at Canterbury looking a little easier to pick a winner while money valley seems to be offering up a bit more value. As always, we hope you have a great day, our form matches up with yours and most of all, good luck and happy punting!
Canterbury Race 5 Princess Layla
Moonee Valley Race 4 Quick Shakes
Moonee Valley Race 5 Grecian Melody
Moonee Valley Race 8 Chinzia
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Address: Related to a fairly handy horse in King Cobia. Snowden/Nolen combo is always strong. Market will guide you but will be strong in the market.
Clevadude: Big 3.5L win in what was a fairly easy race at Cranbourne in a 5 horse field. Needs to find much more today. Big wraps on the horse but should be shorter in the market than deserved due to that win.
Iberia: Scratched from last start and has found what looks to be a much easier race today. Related to a fairly handy horse called Generalife and with Duric on board out of the Snowden yard, expect him to be well supported.
The Yowie: Hayes runner with some VERY strong trial form behind Villa Verde who looks to be one of the best 2YOs going around. Could be value today.
Gold Hoffa: Market only guide.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Quick Snitzel: Moody runner with Meech given the ride. Back over from Adelaide after picking up a win over 1400m. This looks much tougher but the horse has the ability to win.
Under The Leaner: Two back 2nd to Lampedusa is a very respectable run and last start ran on very well at Moonee Valley. Up in class today but down 1kg. Has the ability to win but needs to improve a little bit today or get a better ride.
Medvedev: Hard horse to rate. Disappointed two back at Caulfield and then last start in much easier company won by close to 5 lengths. Nolen books but I honestly couldn’t be backing him today.
General Groove: Keeps finding excuses but last start had every chance and just didn’t get the win. From barrier 4 should push further forward again today and be in with a huge chance.
Here The Rhythm: Big step up in class today. Weighted nicely but still will find this very hard.
Landale: Can’t have him here today off previous runs. Big step up.
She’s Missing: Hard to see her winning today as this is a step up once again BUT, has been progressive this prep. Win wouldn’t shock but can’t have today.
Purrfect Cocktail: Hasn’t shown enough to suggest can win today.
La Pepper: Another step up in class today. Can’t have her off previous three runs.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Caitlin’s Spirit: Progressive horse who has some strong form lines. Down 0.5kg today and down in class. Has the ability to win this.
Magnus Reign: Looks to be weighted out of this on previous runs this prep. Doesn’t seem to handle the city class races.
Righteous Ruler: Won well last start at Kilmore but the form lines previous to that will be hard to hold up here today. May have more of a chance than Magnus Reign with the rail always the place to be at Moonee Valley but needs to improve.
Meliora: Very strong form lines from last prep and returned with a very disappointing first up run at Caulfield. Ignore first up run. Down in class today and only up 0.5kg. If she is back to her best, goes very close here today.
Charmed Harmony: Not the worst in the race but needs to find more more than what she won with last start.
Chosen Son: Should find this class too much.
Damky: Doesn’t seem classy enough on previous runs.
Primitive Man: May be able to sneak a place with form behind Miss Softhands in form lines and a maiden win last start.
Resemblance: Fairly average timed run last start in much easier company. Big step up today.
Zerosixhundred: Hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest can win.
Good Story: If he improves today from last run where may be able to forgive, down 4kg today, has a big chance in equal class. Could be value.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Quick Shakes: Claiming 3kg today and down in class after a very respectable run behind Fast and Free at Flemington last start. From barrier 5 will be going forward and will be very hard to run down. Big chance.
Moulin Bleu: Never won at track from 6 starts. Down in class today and from barrier 1 will be going forward. Claiming 1.5kg down to 58kg which is nice. Could run a solid race but suspect won’t last the trip.
Backbone: A horse that showed a fair bit of ability last prep. Has won at this distance previously and with 7 months off could have trained on enough to win well today. Don’t discount.
Cosentino: Big win last start over Vizhaka who ran again on Boxing Day and got beaten home as a short priced favourite again. Cosentino down 0.5kg today after claim but up in class. Will be pushing forward and run very well.
Rahveel: Down in class today but hasn’t shown enough progression this prep to suggest can win today.
Verification: Good run last start in lesser company when blocked and unlucky. Needs to find much more today.
Leonardo Express: Good run but also lucky to win last start. Much harder race today.
Builder O’Reilly: Weighted well today but looking for further distances.
Rambert: Needs further than this today.
Full Hand: Good second to It Is Written two back and then won last start in lesser company in a decent time. Up in class but down 3kg today. Has a big chance on this preps runs.
Genuine Spin: Very progressive horse last prep who won very well over 2000m in 3YO class. Did win at this distance last start but that was on heavy. Could win today with ease, but suspect she is wanting further.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Terpsichore: Solid win last start in similar class. Up 0.5kg after claim but lesser jockey on board. Never won from 6 attempts at this distance or twice at this track. This is a step up in class to city grade. Hard to see her progressing to win this.
Danish Whiskey: Very strong run last start at Flemington behind Benenden. Up 2kg today but will need to get a lot of luck in this field to have a chance from the back of the field.
Family Crest: Very strong win last start at course and similar distance. The second placed runner won on Thursday at Mornington franking the form. Up 2.5kg today is deserved for that win but shouldn’t trouble her from barrier 2 today to get the run of the race.
Kimiko: Won 3 of last four with a strong second three back at Cranbourne the only loss amongst those. Very progressive and up in distance again today equal weight after claim. Barrier 14 means a little more work to be done early but on times has every chance today.
Angelic Lass: Up 3kg from last start (meets Family Crest 1kg worse off). Has a large amount of ability.
Aliberani: Does meet Family Crest 2.5kg better off at the weights. Will be sitting a little too far back in the race for my liking to make up enough ground.
Koe: Strong form lines. Meets Family Crest 2.5kg better off today and 0.8L behind Secret Liaison two back looks VERY strong form now. Big issue is barrier 16.
Oriental Ruby: Another who meets Family Crest better at weights today. Has the ability but needs luck swooping.
Stardom: Good 3rd to Finishing Card who won well on Boxing Day. Down in class and off 55kg, could run very close today.
Sapphire Princess: Super impressive last start at Mornington winning by 5 lengths. May have turned a corner.
Grecian Melody: Meets Family Crest 5.5kg better off today and only 1.3L behind last start after jumping awkwardly. If pushes more forward today for a good position from barrier 10, is weighted to win.
Girl Gone Rockin: Good win last start at Werribie, but that was in much easier company. The price isn’t reflective of this grade of race. Can’t have on that price today.
Johanna’s Own: Doesn’t seem up to this.
Quaddie leg one: 4, 5, 9, 15, 16
Moonee Valley Race 6
Avoid Lightning: Won 5 from 6 at distance and 2 from 3 first up. Both of her 2 loses from 7 starts have been in this class. Has a huge amount of ability but suspect will be found out today with Mc Cabe riding and the quality of these runners.
Halle Rocks: Form lines are strong behind Vain Attraction three back and then two back winning at course and distance. Back in class today and should be better suited. Has the ability but may need an easier race than this.
Two Hills: Didn’t show enough last start to suggest she is classy enough to compete here today at this distance. Still, could surprise.
Zippa The Rippa: Not classy enough to win this on previous starts. Can put in a nice effort but others better here.
Lady Antebellum: Huge win last start at course and similar distance. Don’t expect her to sit dead last in such a large field today but will be about 6-8 back looking for a run around the corner. Somehow after claims is down 0.5kg today. Big chance.
Sumakaray: A horse with massive ability and every chance today. Will position forward today you would expect and carrying 51kg will be very hard to pass.
Tykook: Doesn’t seem to be a winner. Keeps finding ways to get beat.
Champagne Shisha: Doesn’t seem classy enough on previous runs.
Suvarna: Fancy that this is too classy for her and needs to try something in lesser company.
Gypsy’s Best: Big run last start behind Lamingtons and before that behind Vibrant Rogue. Down in weight a big plus from barrier 1. Could surprise and very easily sneak a place at a price. Include in Tri/F4.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 7, 8, 14
Moonee Valley Race 7
Henshaw: Equal class and race today. Wasn’t good enough last start and hard to see the improvement here.
Romanair: Decent win last start but this is much harder today. Has ability but off that weight looks a hard task.
Street Eclipse: Big win last start over the well fancied Now and Zen. Up 2.5kg today which seems fair. Big chance with Duric riding again.
Gogonski: Down in class today and up in distance which should suit. Never run the 2000m before but looks suited on breeding and previous runs over 1800m. Weights seem fair. Will be there at the end.
King’s Shilling: Doesn’t seem progressive enough to win this today but is weighted well.
Zuma Roc: Needs to find 2-3 lengths today that doesn’t seem to be there.
Be Tolerant: Suited to a class of race that isn’t this one. IS suited well with claim of 3kg down to 54.5kg but up against it today.
Crystal Icon: Could surprise and steal a place today weighted well off last run win over 2010.
Te Karaka: Not good enough on recent form and weights but there is a spec around for it.
Hidden Message: Could run well but I don’t think the Rock Robster form lines are holding up very well in this type of classy race.
Frank The Ripper: Not classy enough for this.
Sugar Bush: Shown nothing this prep.
Quaddie leg three: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11
Moonee Valley Race 8
Starshot: Off 57kg today seems to be slightly outclassed.
Valedictorian: Horse with a fair bit of ability but didn’t show much last prep in longer distances. Over the 1200m first up last start in much classier company ran a close 1.8L 5th. Could surprise.
Le Bonsir: Down in class today after a fairly disappointing second at Caulfield. Off the same weight today and from barrier 6 should position around the mid to front of the field. Has the ability to win.
Goldstone: Good win two back at Flemington, which was last prep in front of Tariana who won on Boxing day. Ran a solid third first up in a classier race. Up 2.5kg today which may be the difference unfortunately from barrier 12 and going back.
It Is Written: Progressive gelding who is 2 from 2 this prep. Keeps putting down solid times and from barrier 4 today will position up the front and be hard to pass. Up in class today and only down 0.5kg is the only issue.
Bon Genre: Has ability from last prep but must find much more to compete today.
King Buddy: The king doesn’t seem up to this class today.. but if he produces the form shown behind Birtish General, could go close.
Mr Obvious: Obviously not good enough today on previous runs at this city class grade.
Muchos Respectos: Ran on nicely two back but was disappointing last start. Off 55kg has a chance today but from barrier 18 will be very hard to position well.
Supreme Warrior: Ignore last start when everyone was pantsed by Lampedusa. Down 3.5kg today after claim which will be a massive help. Will position forward like two back and be there at the finish. Has huge amounts of ability to show today.
Charlottes Mint: Huge step down in grade but hasn’t shown anything this prep.
Chinzia: Hard to place today. Coming back from Country Cup grades after a very strong run in a Mares race here three runs back when 5th. Weighted to win today off that form. Looks like a Newitt Special.
Count The Diamonds: Not good enough today.
Alert The Jeweller: Down from Darwin. Hard to see him winning this today but if trained on can go close. Barrier only big issue.
Quaddie leg four: 3, 5, 12, 14
Canterbury Race 1
Looks to be a race of two. Ferment can be forgiven for a more front running ride last start which didn’t work out in a harder class of race. If you take the form behind Hawkspur two back and the win in lesser company three back in a very strong time over 1500m, has the ability to win today. The main runner we are interested in today is Lilliburlero. A very impressive 1.8L win last start at Rosehill. Meets Grand Business 2.5kg worse off today but we can’t see that being enough to turn the tables.
Canterbury Race 2
Not very keen this race but Madame Fly to place wouldn’t be the worst bet you placed all day considering it is the only winner in the race at bottom weight of 52kg after claim.
Canterbury Race 3
A very hard race to look at on form. Havana Rey is a favourite of ours but the return was super disappointing. The main stand out here for us is Soros. Ignore two back when injured in the race when favourite ahead of Cantonese who has been super progressive. Soros then won last start and is weighted to win today.
Canterbury Race 4
A very competitive race with what we can see as four main threats. The first we will cover is the first time racer in Springs Reward. Very strong breeding and won a trial very well at Rosehill. Looks progressive. Bennetta is also a horse that seems progressive. A strong run behind Longport last prep and a nice second first up behind Gullible, could run well. The two main horses here for us are She’s a Stalker who this prep has beaten Driefontein and ran a close second to My Sabeel who won on Boxing day (second to your song last prep) off 57.5kg today which seems reasonable. The second horse is Silk Pins. Ran a close 0.2L 3rd in 2Y-GP1 in New Zealand at distance. Looks well suited and weighted today to win.
Canterbury Race 5
While Reiby Regina, Caesar’s Princess and Mossmoney all have chances on their form line in their previous race, the clear stand out who is weighted to win today is Princess Layla. Looks to be one of the best of the day.
Canterbury Race 6
Not very keen this race. The only horse we wanted to spec here was Balavan who was scratched. The main threats seem to be High on Believing and Hoss Amor.
Canterbury Race 7
One of the hardest races of the day. Not sure what to make of FortuneFivehundred last start. Can’t have today but a win wouldn’t shock. Kukri is a big chance today off that 2.8L 2nd to Cantonese two back. Weighted nicely today. Travolta one who you could potentially forgive for that poor run last start. Can’t have today though up 2.5kg. Marden looks to be the best in the race off two close finishes behind Scream Machine. Unfortunately up 4.5kg today to 58.5kg which hurts. Finally, simply forgive the last start of Secessio who blundered at start. Up in distance today, a massive chance!
Canterbury Race 8
Save the best for last. There are two clear stand outs here for us. Gasquet is a horse that showed massive ability first up this prep start to finish win at course and distance. If repeats today from barrier 4, will be hard to pass. The other horse we really like today is Kaypers. Claiming 3kg today down to 57kg, is suited here with a very strong record and staying ability.
Doomben Race 6
Set to be a cracking race, but Sizzling proved last start that he is by far the best horse in Queensland in the 3YO ranks. Weighted nicely again today and from barrier 7 will get another very strong ride. May be stealing money again today.
Doomben Race 7
It is great to see Fire Up Fifi back to the distances that suit her with the 1600m suiting her perfectly. Last prep she beat home Grey Assignment who came down to Melbourne and performed gamely over the Spring Carnival. She is up 6kg today on her last start in this class but seems to be progressive enough to win today. Has only missed a place once in the last nine starts. Alma’s Fury does look to be the main threat coming up from Sydney.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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