Another Friday night race meeting and we are at Moonee Valley again. We aren’t blessed with quality fields like last week, but that doesn’t matter as there is always value to be had from at least one race in any card. We recorded one of our best weekends ever last week and hope to be able to produce something similar going forward. Either way, it turned a very horrible run we had been having around with our Saturday Best Bet, Next Best and Best Value winning at Betfair starting prices of $8, $3.60 and $6.50 (Value was posted when the horse was $9). There are several races tonight with low confidence so be very cautious and don’t go too big. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Race 6 You Think So
Race 5 Chelembra
Race 7 Roccin Jo
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Annenberg: Market only guide. Family has no form lines to go off.
Berrichon: Market your only guide but Snowden maidens generally go well.
Black Temptation: Market only guide.
Casquets: One of three horses in the blood line has won over 150k but blood lines suggest needs further.
Devil Miss: Off a two month spell after going close in lesser grade last start and not showing enough to warrant backing today. Hard to have.
Essie’s Pride: Market your only guide.
Gregers: Hayes has been going well recently with the 2YOs. Half-sister is fairly average.
Politeness: Family blood lines don’t show much promise but with Boss booked anything can happen!
Moonee Valley Race 2
She’s Missing: Ran very well two starts back at course and distance. Up in weight again today making the task a lot harder today. Has the ability to go close.
Abdaan: Ignore last start when outclassed in listed grade. May find this class too hard on recent runs but does keep producing solid runs 2-3L away from winning.
Free to Rein: Strong run in maiden class but failed to finish off last start. Has ability.
Papillon: Won well at 2YO level. Showed enough last start to suggest can go close today from barrier 1 with Boss on board but has to get the run of the race.
Shilly Shally Miss: Doesn’t look classy enough..
Lissom: Won a very slowly ran race last start but is up 5kg today.
May Rain: Not good enough on recent runs..
Moonee Valley Race 3
Backbone: Big win last start at Flemington and up 2.5kg here today. Will find it hard on equal weights to improve enough to pass Genuine Spin on a track biased towards front runners. Could position further forward today.
Leonardo Express: Has won two of last three runs in lesser company. Should go close today if positions forward but off weights will be hard to beat these.
Genuine Spin: Won 1 from 1 at track. Should run very well again today but you have to question first run and last run.
Count The Diamonds: Not good enough on form.
Heez Notorious: Weighted nicely against Backbone today but will position out the back once again today and other swoopers look stronger.
Savitar: Won two or last four with a 0.5L 4th to Backbone last start. Has the ability to surprise and win today if gets luck.
Street Eclipse: Keeps putting in solid runs but suspect up in class again today needs to find 2 lengths even though is suited by the track.
Girl Gone Rockin: Positioned too far back last start at Flemington and will position better today from barrier 9. Big chance today.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Tramuntana: Down in class today but up 3.5kg. Times on the straight at Flemington suggest he still has some fight in the legs but will be very hard at the weights. Don’t dismiss.
It Is Written: Simply ignore last start. Will be pushing forward today and has a great record at the track. Down 3kg to 56kg makes this his to win. Barrier only issue but you can push out early at this track.
Alert The Jeweller: Surprise winner at Cranbourne. Looks to have improvement but up in class and up 2kg looks harsh.
Gig: Probably gets a run at Caulfield tomorrow instead but will cover. Weighted poorly against It is Written compared to last meeting (2kg worse off). Has improved again last two starts and may position more forward today.. but has to improve more.
Too Deadly: Huge chance today. Big run behind Big Bear Rock two back and then almost stole it last start behind Stratigraphy. As always, the issue is being so far back and needing luck.
Ladramahs: Never won first up or placed at track from 2 attempts. Only won 1 from 13 at class. Weighted nicely but needs to have trained on significantly.
Chosen Moment: Quality colt who is returning today. Has won previously first up but is 3 places from 3 attempts at the track, never getting a win. Will position mid to back of field once again today and off 56kg is weighted to win today.
Messene: One to keep an eye on. Beat a horse two runs back in the race before this (much harder) called Rock Musician and then won well at Canterbury last prep. Down in class today and down in weight. Can position well and thump them.
Lady Rum Dum: Ignore first up run when blocked several times. Could surprise but positions too far back for mine.
Fire and Flood: Can’t win on previous three runs.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Fab Fevola: Average at best first up at Mornington. Up 2kg today and from barrier 7 will find it hard to get the lead in this class today. On previous form has a chance.
Paaratte Pat: Big win here doing A LOT of work early to get across from barrier 11. Get’s barrier 2 today to make it a lot easier. Down in class but up to 59kg today. Last two runs have been impressive enough to suggest he can win today.
Chelembra: Meets Paaratte Pat significantly better at the weights today and from barrier 6 will be positioning forward. BIG chance.
Jeteven: Good run last start but up in class today and only down 1kg.. hard to see a win.
Lightenuff: Never won from 5 at this distance and only won once first up. Hard to see winning today.
Diamond Earth: The hardest runner to rate today. If produces best, simply just wins. Does run out of legs in the final 50-100m normally but should be suited by 955m race.
BallyDoyle: Can’t have today at weights on times.
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 6
Moonee Valley Race 6
You Think So: Ignore last start at Flemington. Back in class today and 59kg seems reasonable. Suited by the trakc and will be leading it up from barrier 1. Hard to be against today.
Bright Horizon: The big question mark of the race. Hasn’t raced in more than a year but did show ability in Ireland.
Rowland: No chance today. Not good enough.
Grand Ducal: Can’t see enough improvement in the horse.
Heaven’s Riches: Been poor the two runs this prep but does have the ability to run a nice race.
Apres: Meets You Think So 1.5kg better off today than last meeting but on form lines needs to improve even further today to win.
Streets of Seattle: Positions close enough to be a chance once again today off 52kg. Won 2 from 2 at distance but this looks much harder today.
High Kingczar: Couldn’t back him off the last start effort at the Valley but Williams could give a better ride.
Ivory Cross: Slight hope today but needs to show more today.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 9, 12
Moonee Valley Race 7
Sussuro: Big run last start at Flemington. Equal distance today and is 1 win 3 places at Moonee Valley. Has the ability to win today but must show a lot more than runs previous to last.
Unchain My Heart: Huge run first up at Flemington when blocked for run. Up 2kg today in stronger class will find it very hard to win from dead last.
Goldslick: Good win last start but will position far back today. Never ran here previously so may not get a clear run.
Kasane: Stayed on strongly last start when ridden differently to normal. That strategy may suit her here today but this does look hard up in class. .
Sensational Report: Can;t have her after that last up run. Jumping off.
Roccin Jo: Putting in some decent runs over in Adelaide and off 52.5kg will position forward from barrier 1 and has a huge chance.
Umatain: Down from Sydney last start when poor over 1300m. Only up to 1600m and seems to be wanting further.
Family Crest: Weighted to win today and will position forward. Not been more than 1.5L off last 5 runs and is the one to beat.
Min River: Keeps putting in solid runs but is looking for further it seems.
Princess Toshi: Up in class big time today but has the ability to position forward and go close. Close on weights to Family Crest but barrier 12 hurts.
Classic Elle: Consistent runner who keeps finding excuses to lose. Up to Mares off same weights looks a tad harsh.
Stardom: Will be swooping hard but like many others has to come from far back today.
Quaddie leg three: 3, 6, 8, 10, 11
Moonee Valley Race 8
Urban Explorer: Back down in class today but up to 60kg. Has won at distance previously but hard to see him winning this.
Diamonds at Noon: Hard to place today. Hasn’t shown much in classy company in cities and didn’t show much in the country cups. Down in class today no doubt but needs to show much more today than has previously.
Little Boy Blue: Not good enough on previous form to win this today.
Valedictorian: Hard to back on first two runs this prep. May try and position further forward today.
Strike Breaker: Over from Adelaide and down in class. 56kg seems fair and should position mid-field but may get trapped on rails from barrier 1.
Sweet Talking Guy: Hard to see any improvement on last two runs this prep.
Cougat King: Up in class and to the city. Looking for further it seems but is weighted nicely today.
Catagious: Big start to finish win last start when set a murderous pace up front. Needs to find much more today but from barrier 2 and leading could steal it.
Galway Gal: Big win last start over a decent horse in Chilean Plume. Should position forward today.
Mashkoor: Won 2 from 6 at class and almost got it last start at Kilmore. Has to improve today but not by much.
Captura: Good run first up at Flemington and down in class and only up 1kg. Does have to find a lot more today though.
Frisky No More: Hard to see enough improvement today to win.
Moxie Air: Needs further and not good enough on first up run.
Quaddie leg four: 5, 8, 9, 10, 11
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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