Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley. It was amazing to be on course to see two superstars win on Saturday. All Too hard certainly proved to be the star of the day winning in a super fast time. He instantly goes into the ‘Back or don’t touch the race’ category while Miracles of Life proves us right by winning with ease in the Blue Diamond. What a ride! A tough card is on hand tonight and with the rain we have had in Melbourne the last few days, confidence levels are slightly taken down today from previous meetings. A few stand outs tonight but I must stress that Picks CAN and WILL change tonight depending on how the track plays out for different races and how horses look in the yard, so stay tuned to twitter. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Star Stable
With the first round starting Saturday, don’t forget to join up at www.starstable.com.au and join our league with the code 491769. We will be giving away a prize for the stable who finishes number one and the prize will be announced tomorrow night (we are trying to find something cool, if not, it will be cash).
Best Bet
Race 4 Summerbliss
Next Best
Race 6 Xavi
Best Value
Race 8 It Is Written
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Ephemera: Moody runner who has won on Slow and Dead grounds at distance. 57kg today and from barrier 1 speed maps very well. Big chance.
Lamingtons: Good win first run at course and distance. Poor last start and up 3.5kg today. Looks a hard task.
Lil Red Corvette: Will sit forward today. Needs to find a length or two today on previous run.
Act Two: Good win in lesser company. Up in class big time today and may struggle to beat some strong horses.
Imprimis: 2 places from 2 starts last start. Seems to find best on a Good ground on last two runs of last prep. Love to see how she looks in the yard… will be leading this up. Could be value.
Razeena: Strong times from first up run and could improve today. Speed Maps have her wrong, should be trying to lead this up. Hayes in great form.
Spitfire Lady: Won first up last prep but a fair margin in maiden class. Hard to tell how progressive she is, can’t have even off 53kg.
Sweetner: Showed enough last start to suggest can run well this prep. If Kav is in the yard, would be having a look at her. Watch the money.
Extreme Impact: Maiden winner who doesn’t rate highly here. May try push more forward today off 52.5kg.
Easy To Look At: Hard to see the progression to win this today after the poor run last start at course.
Panzanella: Not good enough here.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Absolute nightmare of a race. There are so many good form lines and a fair few good resumers here today, you do really want to find the fittest horse in the yard and you will be very happy if it attracts money also. Key runners are 1, 5, 6 and 8.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Two Sugars: Talented horse who progressed well into preps and has shown best her last two starts at Mornington (loves the track). Has won at track previous and goes well at distance. Big issue today is the 60kg. Seems fairly harsh all things considered! Speedmaps to get a very easy run 1 back on rail.
Roccin Jo: Maps very well today to sit 1 out 1 back today to get every chance. 3kg claim is a must have and off 56.5kg looks weighted well. Goes better on a wet track than Good which suits today. Has been up a long time but looks suited today.
Blue Ribbon: Lost no friends last start at Caulfield 2.3L behind Secret Liaison. Up 5kg today looks a big harsh even in this class though and speed maps a little bad today.
Sensational Report: Never won from 21 starts at class and once from 13 at track. Hard to win this off last 3 runs. MUST go forward today to have a chance.
Go Katrina: Nothing going right this prep for the horse. Hard to have.
Pass The Post: Should get an ok run today. Will still need a bit of luck to win this.. but does enjoy the rain with only wins coming on slow or heavy tracks.
Thorn Star: Won two of last three starts with a 3rd 1L behind Queenera. Up in class today but was fairly impressive last start and should push further forward than speed maps suggest.
Champagne Love: Hard to see the horse placing today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Love where Roccin Jo maps today and will have every chance off what looks to be a slow tempo out front ruining the front markers. Two Sugars gets the run of the race and will be hard to beat representing good value and Thorn Star will be hitting the line late so is a must saver bet.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Dashing Miss: Ran well enough first up to suggest can run well today. May just be a little far back though.
And Rock: One of our favourites. May struggle to get in today from the wide barrier. Weighted nicely after a run in Tasmania behind Rebel Bride (not disgraced at all) and back to a winable race. Can go close.
Paparazzi Dreamer: Up in class and down 5kg today. This does look a little hard today, but last start did run well enough beaten by a horse with much higher ambitions than her. Maps to be leading and could be a huge price to win or place, especially if rail has been solid the first two races.
Dashing Shadow: Slowly away last start at course and distance and looked to be the difference. Up in class today but down 4kg.. from barrier one, should position out the front and be in with a bigger chance.
Miss Del Toro: Maps out the back here but is weighted to win off 52kg. If you are looking for a horse in the race who can run on and win from the back, this is one of them.
Jiggle It: Decent form lines this prep behind Jolie Blonde two back and last start Captivating Lady at Mornington. Much harder today but weighted nicely. Should get one of the runs of the race.
Valrouz: Jumped badly 3 of last 5 starts and is a horse who just doesn’t seem to want to win. Has a big future but hard to be on today.
No Manners: Speedmaps more forward today. Never won at distance but will be suited to extra 200m today. Big chance on weights but may just get blocked for a run once again.
Dark Sun: Not good enough on last few runs and speed maps badly.
Dhammasara: Not good enough for this.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Another race with a large number of chances in the race. Expecting by this stage we will know how the rails are placing our and as always, predicting that they favour front runners. Paparazzi Dreamer and Dashing Shadow would be running first and second going around the corner and have the ability to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Summerbliss: Progressive type who can run very well at 1600m. Weighted very well today and even if the rail is well today, could be running on well enough late to win. Some speed maps have her going forward and if so, will be the one to beat.
Hai Lil: Won well in country first up then progressed onto 2nd at Caulfield before winning here last start. Down 3.5kg but up in class. Big chance with only issue being speed map position.
Green Roller: Hayes runner who maps to lead up from barrier 1. Down to 54.5kg today after claim out of an inform yard looks good. Can win.
Nadeem Lass: A horse with huge ability but hasn’t shown enough the last three starts to suggest can win this today. Weighted nicely.
Triquetra: Decent first up run resuming at Sale. Up 200m today and speed maps well enough, but this will be a hard race to win.
Shilly Shally Miss: Down 6kg today off previous run 4th. Up in class. Can run on well.
Good Thinking: Hard to see a win today off last start run.
Divine Denona: Can’t win a maiden so can’t see her winning this.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: SummerBliss form lines very strong today and Alzora won first up this prep to back them up even further in a good city Saturday win. If rail is working well then Green Roller will be hard to pass.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Fab Fevola: Returned very well this prep and should be going close again today. Top weight today makes it hard but will be at the line at the end.
JohnnyDrama: Won on Slow and Heavy last prep including in this prep. Has claims.
Ravenous Lass: Very poor last prep but previous prep showed a fair bit of tailent. Returns from a big time off off 53kg down in class big time. Position well enough forward today to win. Need to see her in the yard.
Katunga: Disappointing not to win last start back in Adelaide. Back to Moonee Valley today and down 2kg from last run. Has every chance.
Chinzia: Never won in class but was certainly close last start in F&M class. Down 2kg today but speed maps poorly from barrier 1. I am going to bet around her today.
Grippet: Speedmaps well today and does go well at the distance on previous run, but this looks much harder today.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 4, 6, 7
Strategy: One of those races where pretty much every runner has a chance today. You have to look to the most classy runners and take on trust how they look in the yard. Ravenous Lass is a huge price as long as she looks good in the yard. Other than that, not keen on anything else, very open.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Verification: Ran well enough two back at Mornington and previous to that at sale, but didn’t show enough last start blocked for run. Up in class today at 60kg, looks hard.
Xavi: Big win last start at course and distance. Up 1kg today and up in class… but looks very well suited. Goes well in the wet.
Captura: Ran well enough last start and got too far back. Hard to see the progression on that run but wouldn’t be shocked.
De Mars: Showed enough two back but this looks beyond him.
Most Husbands: Ran on very well in a lesser race off a pace that didn’t suit. Should go ok today but this is much harder.
Motto’s Gem: Got a well deserved win last start at Bendigo. Speed maps ok but will be coming from very far back and most likely needs a lot of luck.
Coghills Creek: Has he turned a corner? Was way back in class last start when winning by 5L in a really decent time. Could surprise today and repeat that effort.
Hell’s Kitchen: Showed enough last start but has to find 3L.
Soaked: Good form lines but speed maps really bad today. Never won on anything but Good.. but keeps going close. Up in class today may find this too hard.
Another Blue Boy: Injured during last race at Terrang which cost him the win. Running well enough to run well again today but this looks a step up in class.
Kolokotronis: Hard to see enough progression to win this.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 5, 6
Strategy: Xavi was huge last start. Looks set to win again today.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Gotta Take Care: Looking to be running around again as a prep for hurdles… but if you look to last start ran 0.1L 2nd at course and similar distance (3000m) on a slow track. In lesser company here today and a win wouldn’t shock.
Grand Ducal: Ignore last start where wasn’t suited by the way the ground was playing and look to strong run two back at the valley. Back down to 2500m today not the best thing but last win was on a heavy track.
Rambert: Showed a strong ability to stay first up and will eat up the extra 400m. Will be leading up and setting the speed. Only issue is 0 places from 4 starts on slow or heavy.
Mautitius: 0 wins 0 places at track from 4 starts. 0 places from 9 starts at class. 3 wins 1 place at distance. Hard to have today but doesn’t go well at track.
Vittoria: Good form lines from last prep and returned strongly at Pakenham first up. Weighted nicely today and will be running on strongly.
Aggregator: Big course and distance win last start and only up 1.5kg today. Seems to have trained on well enough to win again today. Only issue is speed map and i’m not sure Nolen can give as good a ride as last start.
Danzoya: 2 starts 2 wins at distance… Mc Evoy riding is a plus, first time in class but has won on heavy. Could run well.
Loukoumi: Progressed well this prep and has won 4 from 7 at distance. Big step up in class once again but seems to be suited by wet tracks. Could run well.
Rileilimag: 52kg looks well in today but only won once from 7 at class. Hasn’t shown enough last few runs for me.
Prinsen: 2.5kg better off against Aggregator today and should position much better today. Could be suited by the wet.
Poledancer: not good enough
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: One of the hardest races of the night. Likes like one to avoid.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Go The Knuckle: First two runs this prep showed enough to suggest can win today, but speed map makes it VERY hard.
Zedi Knight: Not going well enough this prep.
Big Buddie: He just keeps running well without breaking through for a win. Weighted nicely again today and Speed maps to win today and has won on Heavy.. just needs to handle it today and get a bit of luck.
Tumbulgum: ran well enough last start to suggest can run ok today. Down 2.5kg today.
Decircles: Obviously the one to beat. Weighted to win today.
It Is Written: Big win last start at course. Down 4.5kg today and speed maps well enough today.
Red Rain: Form lines are strong. Don’t dismiss.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 7, 11, 12, 14
Strategy: Decircles will need luck to win today and looks unders once again. I reckon he gets trapped. It Is Written gets a clean run and will be hard to beat while Big Buddie gets the run of the race.
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