Horse Racing Form – Moonee Valley – Friday 15 February 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley. In recent weeks, it has been raining money, so much so that we have renamed Moonee Valley to Money Valley. Day Procedure finally saluted last week and we had a perfect night on the best bets. We are actually more confident this week about the card with some clear stand outs on form lines and on weights. There looks to be a few stand outs tomorrow including a nice mare by the name of Black Caviar so check back Saturday morning for our best bets. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Race 2 Readings

Next Best
Race 7 Fierce Command

Best Value
Race 5 Paaratte Pat and Melba (split money 70% 30%) – can’t see the winner coming from beyond these two.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Mount Zero: Strong runs his previous two runs at Flemington before the run at Caulfield. Can position forward and you would expect it to happen from barrier 1. Appeals strongly.
Denpasar: Fairly average win, needs to improve from that.
Anatina: Dam has produced some fairly average children to date. Out of Fastnet Rock which is always a bonus. Market your guide.
Arctic Reign: Showed enough in the trial at Werribee to suggest can run well. Take on trust, market will guide.
Calypso Queen: Half-sister to a Gold Coast Guineas and Gold Coast Maigc Millions 2YRO Classic winner winner in Military Rose. Very strong breeding and out of Lonhro.. could be a star..
Miracle To Me: Well breed filly. Market will guide you.
Nakusha: Family form lines not strong. Take on market guide.
Talbina: Never a fan of blinkers first time! Full brother Kid Choisir was very decent winning over 350k in West Australia.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Prices determine this race and how the horses look in the yard. Hard to bet here.

Moonee Valley Race 2
Apres: 4 places from 4 starts at distance and has won once from 6 at track (placed 5 of those 6). Up 2kg today after claim when ran 2.8L 3rd to Streets of Seattle when did a few things wrong. On recent form has a genuine chance today.
Heaven’s Riches: Poor runs this prep. Hasn’t ran within 4L this prep and not suited on weights today. Never placed at distance from 3 goes or at track from 2.
Beer Garden: Ran well four back but seems to have gone backwards since. Up in class again here today and even with 54.5kg will find this hard. Has to be ridden cold.
Readings: Super ride last start by Schofield who isn’t riding today. Dunn jumps on. Should be taken out front and is well weighted to win this down in class today. 2 from 2 wins at track and 3 wins 3 places from 6 at distance. Won 3 of last 4. Only loss was 2nd when ridden upside down..
High Kingczar: Needs to improve today on form lines, but is weighted nicely today. Disappointing last start but back to 2500m probably better. Still hard to see the improvement against Readings.
Aggregator: Poor two back behind Readings but last start was strong. Up in class again today and should be ridden further forward. Never won from 5 at distance but went close last start.
Call Me Biscuit: Hard to see the win. Very low rated horse.
Prinsen: Been putting in solid runs but not up to this class even off the weight.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Readings is a solid horse who doesn’t put in a bad run. Will be ridden correctly once again today, taken forward and be given every chance with a nice pace out front. The one to beat and the price is value as he wins this more than 50% of the time.

Moonee Valley Race 3
Prince Valiant: Ran well last start at Sale. Will position well from barrier 2 but may just get stuck on the rails.
Vivaldi: Not good enough on recent runs.
Laughing Lad: Looks set to win today and will be a short price.
Sea of Choice: Not ran within 4.3L on either starts. Don’t like backing a horse than ran 6.5L 2nd last start. Will be unders from what it should be.
Walloon Region: Ran well enough last start. If positioned further forward would appeal.
Benzaiten: Can’t back her here.
Demonstrable: Ran well enough last start but hard to see the improvement here.
Goddess Pele: Not good enough.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Watch on..

Moonee Valley Race 4
Hai Lil: Showed big improvement 2nd up this prep almost winning a harder race than this. Down in class today but up against it off 60kg. Could still be good enough to win.. but will find it hard from the back.
High Aims: Missed the start first up and was never in it from there. Showed some VERY strong form last prep, but the majority of that was on Heavy. Win wouldn’t shock.. but hard to be on her off that first up run.
Scarletini: Ran well winning a maiden and then ok second up. Needs to show a lot more
Good Thinking: Good win last start in much easier company. Needs to show more from far back.
Fishtale: Average at best. Hard to see the win.
Silver Trinket: Back to 1600m today which suits… could surprise, but the form is hard to back.
Cash Rules: Good enough first up but this is much harder.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Not confident enough to bet on this race with the horse we liked scratched.

Moonee Valley Race 5
Fab Fevola: Big start to finish win last start. Looked suited by the dead track. Hard to be on today with Parr Pat 6kg better off today.. but still a chance with the rails.
King Cotton: Weighted poorly today progressing from Bendigo and Geelong races. Should find a few too good here.
The Minster: Had ever chance first up and up to 59kg today. Needs to show a lot more. Never placed in this class.
Jayconi: Been off a while and has a good first up record. Never placed from 2 at this class is an issue. Could show a lot pushing forward off 56.5kg.
Paaratte Pat: The big chance in the race. Pat is 6kg better off on Fab Favola and 3kg better off today against Chelembra. Weighted to win. Only issue is Melba today it seems.
Chelembra: Strong run his last three starts and weighted nicely again today. Big issue is the weight reversal on Pat.
Melba: Ignore last start and she has winning form. Won a F&M here two back and speedmaps to get a similar run today. Weighted brilliantly today and is hard to pass up.
Broken Jaw: Too poor to win in this class.
Monsieur Pierre: Not good enough on previous runs.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 4, 5, 7

Strategy: Paaratte Pat is weighted to win today while Melba has the form lines to win also. We HAVE to back two horses in this and spread the winnings. 2.5 units Paaratte Pat and 1 unit Melba.

Moonee Valley Race 6
My Option: Seems to be a very hard horse to get running correctly but has won fairly well the last two starts. Weighted ok here today and should go close.
Dashing Shadow: Was well backed first up but didn’t show much. Hard to back today.
No Vanity: Huge step down in class today. Has run well previously at course, distance and similar grade last prep. Has ability and will post up further forward today. Never missed a place 2nd up.
Oamaru Princess: Big start to finish win in equal class last start at sale by nearly 3L. Barrier 2 and will be pushing forward again. Ignore two back run and look to run previous to that winning by 4L. Rates as the winner on those two runs.
Pixie Eyes: Hard horse to rate today. Showed enough last start on slow to suggest can go close to winning this off 5kg.. but previous runs were fair at best. Hard to rate so may be a saver option.
Reigning Lass: Never won on Good and only once on dead. Form from last prep is all on wet surfaces at further distances. Could very much win positioning forward today.. take on trust.
Gold Rust: Good win behind Shamal Wind in what was a slowly run race… 1.5kg worse off today against My Option.. will be unders today.
No Manners: Never won at distance and only two wins last start were at 1600m. Both wins were solid but needs further.
Lamingtons: Good win first up in very poor class race… back in class today and back to 52.5kg. Weighted ok but hard to see the win.
Extreme Impact: Only just won a maiden. No thanks.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: We have to see what prices are bet on this race, but expect to get a decent price for Oamaru Princess who will be trying to lead the race and never be passed. By race 6 we will know how the rail is playing as well. My Option looks to be speedmapped to win this also so we have to have a little something on MO if betting here. Oamaru Princess 1.5 units My Opinion 0.5 units.

Moonee Valley Race 7
Captura: Very big win last start from a fair way back in the run. Previous to that ran nice behind Dany the Fox and Langridge Street. Up to 60kg today looks a little up against it but should run well.
Ladramahs: Has shown a fair bit of ability on previous runs and first up ran VERY well when blocked for a run at course and lesser distance. Back in class, claim of 3kg down to 56.5kg and up to 1533metres today looks to be giving him a big chance today. Should sit midfield and be pushing hard late.
Anlon: Been running well recently and finally broke through in lesser company last start by 2.8L. Never won on Good or at track and only once at this distance previously, but has ran well this prep at the track. Up to 59kg, just looks to have a few things against him today.
Greenedge: Beat home Captura three back and hasn’t run well since. Hard to have on form lines.
Pop’s Revival: Looking for further on previous form. Never won first up.
Xavi: Strong run last start at course and lesser distance. Should be suited by extra distance and has won with weight previously. Good chance today.
Freshwater Storm: Not good enough on previous runs.
Hell’s Kitchen: Not good enough on previous runs.
Iking: Showed enough last prep in Queensland to suggest he is a good horse, but this looks a step beyond on previous two runs.
Fierce Command: Good start to finish win last start and the form of a 2nd behind Mulaazem has been franked with Mulaazem winning at Caulfield. Big form lines to follow. Can win today.
Adams Bell: Hard to see the win on form lines.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 4, 7, 13
Strategy: The form lines of Fierce Command have been franked in a VERY good race and the start to finish ride and win by 2L last start in a solid time at Sale proves the horses credentials. We will be savering Xavi who was unlucky last start coming up against a strong Adelaide raider who we heard a VERY strong push for on track by the jockey who flew over for the one ride. 3 unit win bet Fierce Command 0.75 unit Xavi.

Moonee Valley Race 8
Crimson Lady: Big wraps on this horse down in class today. Weighted well if runs at the back of the field will find this hard. Get the information first and if you hear she is going forward, is a chance.
Midnight Pearl: Missed the start last two starts which cost her chances in those races. Down in class again today and weighted well. Hard to rate!
Kasmaher: Missed the start last four starts and today will be no different you would suspect. Ran well at course 5 back but positions too far back for our liking.
Bondarenko: Not good enough on first two runs this prep.
Crystalised: Ignore last start when didn’t handle the distance and look to two back at Sandown. Boss on board and should give a solid ride. Big chance today.
Thorn Star: Will be sitting nicely in run and on last two runs has every chance. Could be value.
Chiquada: Won nicely in easier company last start. Big step up.
Westend Smash: Beat home Baremin two back at Cranbourne but was poor last start at Mornington. Will position well enough to run well today.
Gaelstorm: Not good enough on previous form lines.
Temper Tantrum: Not good enough.
Kenona Lass: Has to find a few more lengths to compete here.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 6, 8
Strategy: I was keen on two runners in this race until they were both scratched. Confidence all gone here, no bet. 


Please Note:

All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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