Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley. A strong line-up today field wise and there may be some late changes around 5.30pm-6pm to form if the track doesn’t improve to dead or beyond (not sure how much the track was hurt by the storms tonight). The rail is back in the true position today so we will be shown how much of a bias by about race 3 is going on to help bet for the rest of the night. We will be on track so don’t forget to check out our twitter feed for thoughts from the ring, especially for horses like Galbraith who have to be calm to be backed. It is important to note that if you were to ask me what one bet I would take if I was forced to all night, it would be Alert The Jeweller to place.. the value is significant today. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Race 1 Compass
Race 2 Manila Jewel
Race 8 Alert The Jeweller
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Compass: Did a fair bit wrong first up in a very strong race and comes into this race with a big chance once again. From barrier 2, you would expect them to try and push for the lead if possible as he has won at Canterbury from the front over similar distance. BIG chance today.
Valedictorian: Big run last start and weighted to win today. Progression looks big but against a few more classy horses today.
History No Hurdle: Never missed a place from 6 starts at distance. Won very well last prep up in Sydney and seems to just get a little too far back. Never won first up and weighted a little harshly today. Still a VERY good chance of a place.
Secret Stealth: Can’t see a win on first two runs this prep from Secret Stealth.
Verification: Not good enough on previous runs.
Roses In The Glen: A little bit unlucky last start and from barrier 3 will most likely be positioned on the rail. Find it hard for her to win today.
Murdoch’s Joy: Doesn’t seem good enough on previous runs, but does have some progression left.
Bel Sir: Not good enough to compete in this one.. although has a very good record at the track.
Muhaajir: Interesting form lines. Weighted nicely today and could be value.
Storm Brewing: Will be trying to lead up again but weighted poorly. Hard to see a win today.
Strategy: Compass seem a horse with a huge upside. Second up and should be ready to win today. Speed maps very well to take the lead or if unlucky sit outside the leader. History No Hurdle has the class to pull off a place today at a very huge price. 3 Units Compass to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Manila Jewel: Big win as our best bet last start in lesser company than this. Weighted nicely again today and from barrier 1 will be given the dream ride out front and be hard to run down.
Unchain My Heart: Not suited by the Valley. Will be coming from pretty much dead last and that looks a little hard. Has won here once before though.
Hidden Message: Good win last start at course and distance in front of Lucky Angel. Form line is strong and down 1kg today. Speed maps in a similar position today.
Genuine Spin: Disappointed the last two starts by not winning. Has the ability and will be sitting either outside the leader or one out one back according to speed maps. Nolen has the ability to get a horse stuck on the rails at the valley though. Has a good chance today but will be hard to pass Manila Jewel.
Mauritius: Progressive type up in class and down 3kg today. Has a strong chance today but looks to be wanting further.
Hula Lua: Big win last start at course and distance positioned further forward last start. Up in class but down to 52kg (down 4kg) looks enough to put her in with a chance. Big issue is the barrier but could be ridden for luck if pushes up early to hug 3rd back the rails.
Princess Mossman: Not good enough here on last starts.
My Thriller: Not good enough here.
Strategy: Manila Jewel will get another easy time out the front today and will be hugging that rail to victory if she is able to repeat her last start effort. Hidden Message looks the main threat from Hula Lua. 2 Units Manila Jewel 0.75 units Hidden Message.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Manhattan Maid: Hasn’t shown enough this prep but this is a huge step back in class today. Has won 3 placed once at 7 tries of distance but hasn’t shown much at all. A win wouldn’t be shocking, but hard today on maps and everything.
Avionics: Looks up against it on weights today but has won well here previously first up. Could be value.
Embark: Goes well at the distance and is weighted fairly. Never won first up and never been on track is an issue from barrier 10.
Follonica: Been putting in ‘ok’ runs recently. Up 3kg today is a bit harsh. Still in with a hope where she maps.
Inablitz: Not come back in her best form this prep. Has the ability but needs to show a lot more today.
Biancon Rose: Showed nothing first up. If you can forgive, she has a chance.
Total Attraction: Always runs ‘well’ at the track finding one too good for her. Has good stats first up and at distance. Doesn’t speed map too badly and down in class again today.
Sensational Report: Gone backwards as moved further into campaign. Back to 1200m does suit.. but they need to push her forward today. If they do that, she is a big chance.
Belle Ez: Speedmaps to get the worst run of the race. Hard to see the win.
Oriental Ruby: Absolutely massive run last start and three back was huge also. For those in-play backers is one to watch but you are taking her on luck once again. Weighted well.
Plucky Belle: Has won first up previously and won at distance. Only ever won on slow tracks so depending what we get, that may be a good stat. May get trapped on the rails.
Strategy: Can’t bet here. Expect Total Attraction to get a solid run and be there at the end while Oriental Ruby does win this more times than the odds suggest… but you are simply needing a great run and there just doesn’t look to be the pace here (but you never know with no clear leader on paper.. so hard to map the pace).
Moonee Valley Race 4
Planet Voyage: Resumed in fine form last start at course and distance. Up 1.5kg today after claim and has big claims. Rated second best until Day Procedure was scratched and third best Dash also out. Now speed maps to win.
Saturn Rock: Hard to see her first up running on from the back where she is speed mapped. Suggest they have to push forward from a wide gate and try for some luck to slot in. Hard to see the win, 3 places from 3 at track.
The Travelling Man: Others in race seem to be better than him.
Beau Dash: Huge step up. Not good enough for this.
Bombsquad: Can’t see the horse being good enough in this class.
Get Pronto: Showed a bit of class first prep but doesn’t look good enough for these.
The Originator: Well backed first up runner. Hard to see a maiden winning this.
Strategy: Planet Voyage rated to win here. 1 unit win bet here if touching.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Galbraith: It’s always good to see our 10 year old superstar Galbraith running around. Loves the valley and gets a good barrier today. Off 53.5kg with Mallyon on board is the one to beat. THE BIG WARNING with Galbraith is that he only runs well if he is calm in the yard. Stirred up he is hard to back.
The Soldier: Hasn’t measured up down in Melbourne this prep and is going to need to find much more today.
Vatican: Running well enough when went over to Adelaide but failed to produce last start. Never won in this class but weighted well. Speed maps to 1 out 1 back and will run well.
Waltzes: Hard to see him winning this today off the two recent runs.
Nodrems: Has ability on runs last start. A sneaky chance.
Belle Diva: Can’t see a win today.
Beneficiary: Good runs this prep but looks beyond him today.
Quaddie leg one: 3, 5
Strategy: If Galbraith is cool, calm and collected he is worth a play if the rail is playing out well. Yes, another front runner on the rail, you can see our strategy with Moonee Valley right?
Moonee Valley Race 6
Norzita: A horse with massive upside and ability, weighted very well today against this class of horse. Last start beat home Longport and a fairly handy horse callled Dear Demi. Needs a bit of luck from back in the field is the only issue.
Angelic Light: Big run last start at Caulfield first up and could improve again today down 1kg. From barrier 1 is set to position on the rail 1 back behind a lesser chance in the race. Could get stuck.
Proper Madam: Only win last prep was on Heavy at Caulfield. Needs more rain it seems. Hard to see the progression.
Later Gator: Disappointing last start but does have some decent form lines. Expect her to be further forward today.
Pitch Perfect: Hard to see the horse winning today after only winning a maiden.
Sheza Single Girl: Doesn’t seem to be weighted well enough today after a 3.8 loss to Angelic Light last prep.
Yuleba: Weighted poorly in this class.
Easy To Look At: Not progressive enough for this.
Quaddie leg two: 2, 3, 6
Strategy: Norzita is the best horse in this race and the only thing that will stop her winning is a wall of horses the width of the Moonee Valley straight. Arnold will do right by her and take her wide.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Fiumicino: Since the win five back he has been poor. I don’t know why they haven’t tried to go forward on him again. Not today.
Dame Claire: Showed enough last start to suggest is good enough to run well today. Has won here previous and is suited by a distance this long.
You Think So: Super disappointing ride last start by Mc Cabe. Down in weight today to 57.5kg and has won 2 from 6 at track (never missed a place). Should be ridden more forward today by Nolen and have a big chance to win.
Montgomery: Ran on well enough last start to suggest can run well again today. Could place.
I’m Jake: Since three back run has gone backwards. Hard to see a win today.
Streets of Seattle: Big win last start and up 3kg and poorly weighted against You Think So. A small chance.
Red Eye Special: Not a chance today.
Apres: Needs to find much more. Can’t see it on recent runs..
Altonio: Didn’t show enough last start.
Readings: Ignore last start when made to run way too fast last start out the front. Weighted nicely but this is a big step up.
Rive Gauche: Not in this class.
Quaddie leg three: 2, 3, 6, 10
Strategy: I really like You Think So here but speed maps are suggesting he might not find the front. Needs to be ridden forward and won’t be passed if that happens. Will try and get a word with a jockey or trainer involved during the night on this one!
Moonee Valley Race 8
Tramuntana: Ran well last start and up in class again today. Looks an impossible task from the back with this weight.
It Is Written: Strong run last start at the course and distance. Up 3.5kg today up in class is fairly poor. Barrier 4 suits and will go close.
Alert The Jeweller: 2.5kg better off today against It Is Written yet is better off on the totes (higher price difference). Big form lines have played out with that win over Cavallo Nero two back and then the run behind Chosen Moment last start was very strong. Should position out the front or outside the leader and be there at the line. Barrier no issue!
My Survivor: Progressive type who showed more than expected last start. Should run well.
Exclusive Choice: Almost ran down Who Stole My Sock who is a very good horse. Will be hitting the line hard from the car park.
Our Protocol: Will be going forward. Up in class today and couldn’t run it out last start. Hard to see the win today.
Littlebitaluck: Need smore than a little bit today!
Shadow tales: Good run wlel today… but hard to see up into this class.
Solar Strike: Not good enough to win but could place due to barrier.
Esprit Rossa: Speed mapped to run at the back (10th) but on last two runs that is hard to see. Will position further forward today and may be a strong chance today. Don’t discount.
Ferocia: Times not good enough for this.
Justice Fighter: Not good enough.
Quaddie leg four: 2, 3, 5, 10
Strategy: Alert The Jeweller will be heading forward today and is a massive price to win and especially to place. Will get the run of the race today and looks hard to pass. 1 unit to win 3 units to place.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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