Welcome to the Racing write up for Friday 28 September 2012 at Moonee Valley. What a huge weekend we had last week with our Best Bet at Caulfield and Sydney both saluting at $5.40 and $3.70. We also had one of our three best value selections put up at $20/$6 when posted win (jumped at $15 on Betfair). This continues a very good streak for our tips and with an action packed weekend with Friday night Moonee Valley, Saturday Metro in Sydney, Queensland and Adelaide and then Caulfield Sunday, it will be a busy weekend on the punt. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Race 6 Buffering
Best Value
Race 8 Dance With Her
Best Lays
1. Race 8 Fruehling
2. Race 6 Tiger Tees
3. Race 5 Umgeton
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Big question marks on Chosen Moment. Is a horse with a fair bit of potential but kept finding a few too good last start. The two previous runs in harder class races than this saw him 2nd but beaten 3L and 4L. Seems to enjoy the track.
There has been wraps for Pronto Pronto from around the grounds after the first up attempt behind Shes a Fox at Sydney. Forgive last start, wasn’t suited by the straight track and will run better here on a corner. Will go close if you forgive last start.
Velonski will have to improve head and shoulders to be in this. Happy to be against.
Very strong second up win by Clinton Affair at Caulfield last start. Had a nice long spell and should be going well again. Moody/Nolen combo always a bonus.
Ferment is hard to place. Won well at Caulfield in first ever race but failed second up (vet exam). Ran strongly in Grp3 company 3rd up and then failed completly at Gp1. On form lines, could go close down in this company.
Eximius didn’t perform very well at all first up this prep and happy to be against.
Daytona Grey won very well last start but back in Melbourne will find it much harder. Solid form lines.
Gold Rory was super in Mornington first up. Won very well beating a decent field by 3L. Could go strongly here.
Finally, Generalife won by 5L at Bendigo on a dead track. That is a MASSIVE improvement in four months. McEvoy down for the ride. You surely don’t want to under rate this one but the big question is if he can make up enough ground late on this track.
We are never keen on these lower quality races in Races 1 and 2 most metro meetings but you can sometimes start the day with a flurry if you are onto something. The two selected on top are very handy, it all depends how the others progress. A very hard race with many chances.
Confidence 70%
Moonee Valley Race 2
Rue Maple has been running solidly this prep but just keeps finding a few too good. Bossy on board is a big bonus here but 60kg is not a weight you can back this mare on from barrier 10.
Serene Star is a big chance here. Won 5 of 6 races this prep and just keeps getting taken on at stupid odds. Has jumped $9, $8.50 and $10 last three starts and won all three. Only issue here is the way Serene Star sits back and comes late. Nolen on board should give another quality run. Last start win makes you believe the two months off helped.
Aerobatics didn’t show enough first up to make you want to geton it here.
Shabangabang is a hard horse to place. THis does look a step up but with Newitt on board and a forgive last start, could go ok.
Off and Laughing weighted well here and will go forward from barrier 3. Could run a solid race.
A favourite of ours is Arctic Flight. Is a very solid horse who simply gives you bang for your buck. Will be heading forward from barrier 15 and Oliver will give us a good ride. Has won first up and out of price yard you know will be fit. Last prep ran a start to finish 1:08.9 which if they decide to put the pressure on here, will be hard to beat.
Barbie’s Bombshell has a chance on form but doesn’t seem good enough on times especially with Duric on board.
Spot On Maggie could run a very big race. The first up run was solid behind Dream Face who won very well last weekend.
A super difficult race with many a chance. Arctic Flight should be able to hold this one out but Serene Star should be dashing home late even with the big weight. Not the easiest race of the day and if you don’t feel like spreading your money around, look to later races for more value.
Confidence 75%
Moonee Valley Race 3
SpaceCraft was super impressive last run over the 1600m but has coped a 2.5kg rise. Should run a strong race and go close.
OurForeignMinister was disappointing first up but down in distance could help.
Ignore last start of Tokugawa in WFA-G2 and this is back to winable grade. Very unlucky not to win two back and three back form is solid with Lord of Brazil winning this week.
Barysh Quest wasn’t the worst last up but this is another step up in class. Could still urn a solid race.
Picture Editor is an interesting runner. Over from England, could run well after a decent first up run over 1600m.
Spacecraft and Tokugawa seem to be the two stand outs in this race and it is always good at MV if you are backing two different horses to have one speed mapped forward and the other midfield to back. Expect the winner to come out of these two.
Confidence 80%
Moonee Valley Race 4
The money suggests this is a race of one but there are a few chances in this race.
Snitzerland is the class in the race, there is no doubt about that, but there are some very handy horses in this who could go well.
Hoss Amor is an interesting runner down from Queensland. Won three of last four starts in lesser company but has nice solid times and could go well first up.
Elite Elle is the most interesting runner here. Won well her first four starts and then was just caught a little short at Caulfield last time out. Lady of Harrods has come back and franked that form and won for us last weekend at big odds.
The only play we can see in this race is to back Snitzerland hard and to saver on Elite Elle.
Confidence 90%
Moonee Valley Race 5
Super speed in this race. More than half the field are speed mapped to go forward and that means there will be a lot of pressure out the front.
General Truce is a horse that doesn’t disappoint and has never missed a place first up but generally just doesn’t get the job done. Loves the track 2 wins 3 palces from 5 starts and is weighted well off 55kg. Will be a little too far back for mine here though.
Obsidian Dragon Been off a long time and happy to be against first up even with a 2/2 from 4 record. Does have good times but this may be a tad too fast for her.
Broken is a super horse who keeps finding his best at MV. Weighted well but can’t see him winning with this pace out front. Will have to be a super ride.
Galbraith is one of our favourite horses going around. He just turned 10 and still has it. Ignore last two starts, at this age the horses do go off at times but look to three and four back. Super rides and the horse wanted to be there unlike the previous two rides. Much better coming onto a Good track for mine and should battle going forward. Has the times to win this on a pace.
Snitzem is the class runner of the race placing in WFA-G3 last start at course over the 1000m… Get on now if you are keen as will jump around the $1.90 mark if you are lucky and this is way to short. We have backed early for a saver bet are happy to wait until gets that short and take the good odds on Galbraith.
Rescue Mission can fight it out with the best of them and on times could go close off 54kg.
Umeton seems outclassed with the speed up front.
Ignore the first up run of Ravenous Lass. May be needing to get further into the prep to show best and up 1kg from last start is a little hard to win here but will win a good race this prep. Does handle a strong pace from start to finish from barrier 2.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg 1: 4, 5, 6
Moonee Valley Race 6
A super hard race to pick. Buffering is by far the class but there are a number of up and comers in this race with big chances.
Green Birdie is a horse who we are once again happy to take on.
Buffering has won 4 times first up with 1 placing other than that. Interestingly, that first non-win first up was last prep. Will find best over the 1200m trip and is speed mapped for a super race from barrier 2.
Atomic Force can be forgiven for last start but does seem outclassed here.
ThankGodYou’reHere would need to improve 3-4L to be in this.
Ready to Rip can’t be discounted on form but weighted harshly vs these super stars and never won on a Good track. Queries all around.
Tiger Tees a massive win first up but not sure the form lines in that race are as good as everyone is trying to make them out to be. Weighted harshly against buffering in my opinion. Loses 4kg on 4L loss behind Buffering in QLD two back.
Finally we get to Platelet. Just keeps battling on and is one at odds who has a sneaky chance. Especially if the rain comes over night.
We can’t be on anything apart from Buffering here and the price we are getting is value.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg 2: 2, 8
Moonee Valley Race 7
Pierro Pierro Pierro. He simply just wins this race. Weighted very well here. No problems at all and goes 8 from 8.
So what are we looking for to bet on in this race? There are a lot of favourite out markets available on totes with Centrebet etc so that may be a way to get into this race so let’s have a look.
Jimando is all quality. A huge win last start and will go forwardish again getting a good positon. Will be hard for the others to pass.
The other three who will run well are Philippi, Carringbush Jack and Adjuster all with similar form lines.
Our play in this one is to take Jimando favourite out.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg 3: 1
Moonee Valley Race 8
A very good race to end the night and you know who we are looking at to get us dancing!
Starting at the top. Precedence was very progressive last week and comes into this race down 2.5kg which is a big bonus but against much harder horses. Should put in a big run but suspect will find a few too good.
Alcopop not up to this. Seems to have gone backwards big time in the last two years.
IronStein is a hard horse to place. Keeps putting in solid runs over this distance but takes a few runs to get into form.
On form, you have to be against Moyenne Corniche
Dance with Her is down in class, down 2kg and up 400m. All of those factors suit and when you consider she still finished 5th leading from start to near finish on a day when there was so much wind that no leader finished close at the end, this was a big effort. Would love a little bit of rain over night but there should be enough for her. Has accepted second stage of Caulfield Cup and the owners are really keen on qualifying for Caulfield Cup and even heading onto Melbourne Cup. A win here gets it almost into the CC field.
Excluded is a big chance in this race off 54k and certainly does deserve the price. The issue for Excluded is how fit he really is. The last two wins were in lesser company and this is a step up. He won’t have an easy lead on the turn and the pace won’t be run to suit. He will have to pass Dance With Her on that turn and there are few horses who can do that if DWH get’s the ride we think she will.
Miss Artistic been given too many chances. Doesn’t have the class.
King Diamond finished strongly last start and could run well.
Sabrage could run well but doesn’t seem up to this on form.
Bianmick up in class but on form can run well.
Guns At Five a nice finish last start but once again looks outclassed.
Finally, Fruehling is a shockingly short price here. Happy to be against every day of the week!
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg 4: 1, 5, 6, 10
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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