Welcome to our Moonee Valley write up for Friday 30 November 2012. We experienced another profitable week at the races last week and we are looking to extend our super Friday night record tonight. The fields seem to have a fair bit more depth than last week and with fixed odds already up, it is easier to pick through the value and best of the night. As always, we hope our thoughts match up to your form. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Race 4 Kukla
Next Best
Race 7 Alrouz
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Brandli: Nothing special from a breeding point of view but won a trial very well.
Calcatta: Out of a mare who won over $200,000 in her short career. Ran ok trailing.
Charnzel: First starter with no trial form. Two other siblings very average horses. Happy to be against.
Itameri: Disappointing first up but did run on ok. Could run well again today.
Pressure Down: Market only guide. Hayes been getting a few winners as of late. Nothing on breeding side and no trial.
Star Destination: Out of a fairly average Mare. Nothing to go off.
Confidence 60%
Moonee Valley Race 2
Chilean Plume: Has the talent from first up when 0.4L second to Lady Melksham leading start to finish. Other runs were nice also. Looks suited back to the 1200m today with a few months to train on.
Innovate: Looks suited to longer distances than the 1400m on previous runs. Has some ability, but this looks beyond him unless trained on big time.
Leon the Chicken: Full brother who is a 7YO didn’t show much. Looked ok trialing, but not up to this.
Amber Cavalier: Hasn’t shown enough this prep.
Black Aston: VERY well breed FULL Brother to Miss Octopussy and Minnesota Shark. No trial and blinkered. Should be hard to beat on potential.
Mr Mustafa: Good first up run in a race that looks to have some decent form lines. Will be going forward today which may be a bit tricky from barrier 10. Can go close.
Sky Host: Poor trial form. Doesn’t look good enough.
Jeelfactor: First up run looked solid off a slow 1200m. Considering speed map placement, happy to be against.
Kentucky Gem: Ran on nicely last start at Mornington, but the times out of that race don’t look good enough here today.
She’s Got Grunt: Gone close the last five starts. This is a big step up. Has placed 14 from 21. Happy to be against.
Taper Jean Girl: On previous runs is outclassed today. Seven months to train on, could come back well.
Confidence 75%
Moonee Valley Race 3
Boho: Hasn’t shown enough in previous four runs to suggest can break through here today. May be suited to the extra distance.
Cousin Andy: has threatened to win this prep, but just can’t find a way. Good run last start once again and down 3kg today. Will run a nice race.
Fortunefivehundred: Very strong form lines from last prep behind horses such as Fat Al and Scream Machine. Back up to a distance that suits and is ready to win.
Mont Dame: Ignore last start where outclassed and look to two back where ran on ok. Could run well.
Origato: On form will run a solid race but looks outclassed.
Orthros: Has the ability on all runs this prep.
Straitsofgibraltar: Moody runner with Nolen on board again. Ran very well last start at Seymour and may simply be wanting the extra distance and a track that is generally leader biased. Will go close.
Cherry Dancer: Ran very well last start behind Gracious Goddess who didn’t run a place next start. Happy to avoid this form line.
Chimes At Midnight: Not classy enough.
Confidence 75%
Moonee Valley Race 4
Island Bar: Ran a solid race two back, but something went wrong last start. Should get an easy sit and be there at the end. Can’t simply ignore him.
Kukla: Quality runner back down in class. SUPER form lines 0.8L second to Meidung. As long as positions forward, simply just wins.
Classic Flavour: Nice runs this prep but off 59kg looks a hard task.
Just Forget It: Looks outclassed.
Godspiel: Ran well both starts this prep but this is a different level of class. Could still be there at the line on times.
Lissom: Outclassed on previous runs.
Confidence 90%
Moonee Valley Race 5
Locke’s Choice: Could be value in the race. Down in class and back to the 955m. Rider lost whip two back when ran on well from the back. From barrier 14, expect to be pushed a little more forward today to be given a better chance. The weight may be the difference.
Mondano: Simply not good enough over the 1200m last start. May simply be a 1000m horse and under at this age. Ran very well the last two starts, but that may have also been due to the slow ground. If the rains come hard, could be value.
Tiger Stripe: Been off for over a year after showing a lot of promise. Has the ability to win today if trained on. Money will tell.
Spartan Warrior: Two wins from last two starts. Weighted nicely today but step up in class here.
Hadronica: Super disappointing this prep. May be suited to down in distance today but this is harder than last start. Will need to have found extra lengths today.
Jacopo: Down from Darwin after a few months off. Weighted nicely and runs well at similar distances. Only issue is barrier 13.
Oamaru Rose: Never won or placed first up but weighted nicely today. Has won at 1000m in higher rated races but that was on Heavy. Will need to find something special.
Tres Vite: Hasn’t shown enough this prep. Will be too short again today!
Thebarwonprince: Always runs a solid race and will once again today, just not winning.
Empress Zakynthos: Good win last start at Geelong over the 1300m distance from the front. Will try and go forward again today off 55kg. Only issue is if she will stay at a fast speed.
Grippet: Improved on poor run last start to go close at Pakenham. From barrier 1 will be heading forward once again. Looks to want a dead or good track only. Can go close.
Gotta Laugh: Meets Grippet 4.5kg better off than three back run. Ran very well last start at course and distance when blocked for run. Will go very close today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 3, 4, 8, 11, 12
Moonee Valley Race 6
Star Of Jeune: hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest he can win today. Will appreciate the extra 500m but has to find something special up in class.
Fantastic Porscha: Good win two back but was found out last start. On four back run behind Orbicat can run well.
Lucky Angel: Ran very well last start behind Orbicat. Looked like she was going to run past but to be fair, Orbicat was strong. Down 1.5kg today and ready to win who no Orbicat in the race.
Yuka Joy: Ran a strong second last start in front of You think So. Has the ability and will be leading out the pace.
Fire Truck: Not good enough here off previous runs.
Mr Birchy: Didn’t show enough last start.
Strategic Impact: On previous run can’t win today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 3, 4, 5
Moonee Valley Race 7
The Wingman: Was super at the start of his prep but seems to ahve gone backwards. Down in class to something more realistic, but still looks harshly treated off 58kg after claims. Should run well but hard to back.
Moulin Bleu: Very average first up run when missing start. Looking back to previous runs and happy to be against. with no wins from 6 second up.
Alrouz: Big win last start at course and distance. Down 1kg today up in class. Ready to win again.
Aiglon: Ignore last start and look to previous runs when 5L behind Puissance De Lune (not bad form) and winning previously over 1600m in decent time start to finish. As long as jumps well will go close.
Verification: Meets Alrouz 2kg better off today but needs to find a few more lengths.
Lonhreign: On previous three runs can’t win. Needs to improve big time.
Renegade Arrow: Form around four back run is solid and ran nicely behind Chilly two back. Outclassed last start. Could run well. Concussion Plates off is a BIG plus.
Value As: Was value over in Adelaide last start winning well. Up in class today and up 0.5kg for that win. Will be going forward and could be the one to beat. Big issue is meets Aiglon 3.5kg WORSE off today from a 1.5L loss.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 3, 4, 9, 10
Moonee Valley Race 8
Ferocious One: Progressed nicely in training and won two in a row at country level. Stepping up today and looks weighted harshly.
Vibrant Rouge: Very strong form lines including a second to Florets who is quite handy. Weighted nicely and if trained on will be hard to hold out.
Chantoozie: Strong form 2.5L behind tigress Joy and went close last start. Does look harshly weighted today though.
Spiritofthestorm: Form is hard to stack up against this class of race. Could run well but needs to find a little more.
Manor Lady: Ignore two back run and look to last and three back runs when winning. Has the ability.
Gypsy’s Best: On weights, will need to find a few more lengths. Does seem to have ability.
Roxit: Strong form last prep and if progressive should have trained on and be very hard to beat today.
Sierra De Oro: Good win last start but this is much harder.
Dance Card: Very strong form lines from last prep 3rd behind Isabella Snowflake and then 0.1L behind Stralia. Has the ability and weighted nicely.
La Tikka Rosa: Looks a strong horse and if the money comes, means has trained on. Can run well today.
Frankly Fast: Looks outclassed.
Ruby Shines: Looks outclassed but could have trained on well.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 7, 10, 12
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