Horse Racing Form – Moonee Valley – Friday 5 October 2012

Horse Racing - Australia

September was a massive month for our Horse Racing form and we hope to continue it in October. This class of racing at Moonee Valley isn’t our specialty so take the write up for what it is, a write up on what we can see in the form lines. There are three to four races we will be keen to bet into at Moonee Valley but it all depends on how the odds figure on the day as there are a four races currently without fixed odds available. Remember, there is some MASSIVE racing to be bet on tomorrow in Sydney and Melbourne so don’t go too big tonight. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Race 2  Crafty Cruiser

Next Best
Race 4  Flash of Doubt

Best Value
Race 8  Eleuther

Best Lays
1. Race 2 Prussian Officer
2. Race 5 Tormented

Friday Flutter
Multibet of Crafty Cruiser into Flash of Doubt to win at $7.11 (Sportsbet)

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Bet at your own risk in this race! Maidens can always pop out a long odds winner and you just don’t know how the first starters will go.
Irish Kingdom has gone very close the last two runs and this is similar class. Can go forward or back and should go close.
Mr Andre from barrier one will be heading forward. Times seem a little slow here.
Tune Out has been in it the last two starts this prep. Needs to improve on times.
Electric Fusion is an interesting runner who went oh so close last start at a massive price. Hall on board again and will go forward which is always favourable at MV. Out of Fastnet Rock which is also a plus and last run was a decent time over the 1400m and if we were having a bet in this race, it would be this horse.
Confidence 65%

Moonee Valley Race 2
GeeJayHaitch has been going around at this distance from 2540 up to 3000m the last four runs and hasn’t been able to produce a winning run. Last start seemed like the perfect opportunity but couldn’t get within 4.8L on 3.5kg less weight. Has a 2 win 1 place record but suspect best is behind him.
Crafty Cruiser has been a horse that keeps running well but just doesn’t get in all this prep. Finally won two back in a much easier race but was solid last start when beaten 0.1L in equal class. Down 0.5kg for that run and seems very well suited here.
Unser coming over from Adelaide is a horse with chances. Has never ran this distance which is a disadvance but was a strong 3rd behind My Ex Mate last start. Weighted well and could go close if handles the distance.
Jumpin Jack Cash and Prussian Officer both seem outclassed
Confidence 85%

Moonee Valley Race 3
Another one of those races where you need to be confident to bet.
Kolonga is one of the class horses in this race having won a 2YO 1000m race in her first race ever. Ignore last start run where went back to last and look to this run where should go forward and get a ride out the front.
Iriomote came back from a spell very well first up and could give a solid run out the front from a sit. Only just got there on the line last start but does have the ability.
Young Girl is massively back in class here. Ran a good 4.5L behind Members Joy first up and then a solid 3.3L behind Lady of Harrods last start. On this form should go very well and you would like to see her a little closer to the speed today.
Burndiniburn with Hall on board is certainly the one to watch in this race. A very solid tempo was ridden last start and Burn was there at the end in a fast time. Could go very close.
Games could run well but happy to be against due to where she will position.
Murray Star down in class but doesn’t have any super fast times to name. Hasn’t been more than 0.1L off the last three starts. Nolen Moody combo will be backed in.
Purple Storm seems handy on previous runs.
Confidence 68%

Moonee Valley Race 4
A super exciting race with a few quality horses with big chances… we have two stand outs.
Folloncia is an interesting first up runner. 2 wins 5 places from 10 at distance and 1 win 2 places from 4 first up. On previous form could run well in this class but will be hard with the 60kg.
Flash of Doubt put in a massive run last start and could be able to continue with another big run here. Weighted well in this class.
Shebangabang doesn’t seem to have the same class the last two starts as previous runs. Will need to find a fair bit to win here.
Louisville Dancer is one to keep an eye on from the back with Hall on board. Ran a very solid 1400m over 1.22.6 and won at Flemington. Might be needing a longer straight having never placed at course before.
Formidable hasn’t returned as well as you would expect on previous form if you look at last start.
Legion’s Belle always performs well first up but has never placed from 4 starts at track.
Confidence 85%

Moonee Valley Race 5
Champagne Tales has returned from four months off in super form. Won very well from the front first up in a solid time and second up lead start to finish to JUST hold on. Up in class big time here but will be there at the end on form. As we know, it always pays to be a front runner in these 955m races.
Forceable is a hard horse to place. Won solidly first up on Heavy and last start ran a solid time over 1000m on dead. Could run well here once again.
Sweet Little Lies is a horse with massive ability. Won by 4.8L first up at Caulfield at the start of the year and then ran an ok 4th second up. Last start in a much harder race at $1.70 favourite was turned over again leading from the front and given another Vet Exam. Down to the 955m should suit and will be hard to pass.
Stars in the Sky would have to produce a 2-3L better performance than ever. Can’t see winning here.
Harpers on form is the one to beat. The form of Elite Elle is solid and having run second to her before a break makes you want to be near this horse.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg one: 3, 5

Moonee Valley Race 6
Jayconi has some very solid form coming into this race. 60kg is a little harsh weight wise but Jayconi going forward should run very well off previous runs.
The form out of the Nicholls Court win has been interesting. Locke’s Choice finished 4L behind but the form has been proven and could work out well in this race.
Hadronica will go forward and be well positioned. Out of a strong form line race and is well weighted.
Tres Vite put in some very solid times in her first three runs and could produce another solid run here today down in class well weighted.
Lady Antebellum is a super interesting runner and one we have been following for a long time. Expect her to go forward today and produce a solid run.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg two: 1, 4, 8, 9

Moonee Valley Race 7
Model to Nite was very average first up off the 60kg over the 1400m. Up to 1600m, has a 2 win 2 place from 6 record and could run strongly. Is much better placed on Good or Dead tracks and should run solidly.
Orchard Street hasn’t shown enough the last two starts to make you confident that she can win but does have some nice form on a dead course.
Outdoor is a horse who has been slowly progressing this prep and showed a fair bit last prep at Moonee Valley. Could produce a winning run.
Ignore last start of Rock Hit on Heavy and look to this start to place her.
Blue Niles first up run was solid but needs to improve here.
Ignore first up run of Ferguson who didn’t handle the ground. Down to 52kg here and could put in the run of the race. Hard to beat.
Finally, Poplin is an interesting runner over from the UK. Would expect the extra distance would suit and Boss on board is positive.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg three: 1, 5, 6, 8, 9

Moonee Valley Race 8
A super competitive race to finish the day with a few stand outs.
Reparations has put in some solid runs as of late but up in class last start failed big time with a vet exam. Up to 59.5kg could go close.
Sertorius ran a massive race first up and could reproduce another solid run today.
Waterford Hill is the stand out in the race but you have to question where the horse will position in the race. Will settle at the back of the field and will need a miracle to swoop through late.
Mushatta has some ok form but nothing special. Boss on board is always a bonus.
Secret Liaison didn’t show much first up over the 1200m but should find this distance more to her liking. If they push forward here today, should be able to run on and go close as this is a massive step down in class.
Eleuther comes into this race with a second and third behind Callanish and is down in class here. Form line seems very solid and will position well in the running. Will be hard to hold out.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg four:  1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 10

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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