Manikato Stakes Night is upon us! Geelong Cup day was big for all our followers with our Best Bet that we have been talking about for over a week in Medusa’s Miss saluting at $3.80 if you got the early odds. She jumped $2.80 on the day with Betfair and just proves that on these types of horse, you need to get the early odds. Our best at Geelong didn’t run to plan but both our Best Value’s gave solid runs at odds for 3rd and 3rd and our Lay of the day didn’t get close at all which was good. After some negative feedback, we want to point out once again that we don’t bet every single race we put up and that you should only use our form for what it is, a guide. Always do your own form, always read into races what you want. We are providing our thoughts for free and our strike rate for our best bets and value is market leading over the past two months. So take out of that what you will! Onto the races. Let’s enjoy the night and walk away with more bank for the Cox Plate!
On Thursday evening a comment was made on our website claiming to be from ‘Ed Belly’ with the Red Belly Sports homepage link showing in our backend. I then made some comments on twitter at the time which were impudent. Instead of contacting the person in question, Ed, I assumed they were his comments. After being contacted today by Ed, I can confirm that these comments were not from Ed or anybody at Red Belly Sports. I have all the respect in the world for the work that Ed does and want to apologise for the tweets. All future comments will be heavily moderated and any that claim to be post by names in the industry will be rejected to avoid further embarrassment.
Best Bet Moonee Valley
Race 3 Sea Lord
Best Value
Race 6 Hallowell Belle
Race 7 Balaclava Lady
Best Lay
Race 1 Verdant
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Buxted was in fine form winning two runs back and can be ignored for last start in a much harder race. 60kg shouldn’t be an issue with a solid ride.
Single Minded will be going forward today and will control the tempo. 60kg does look very harsh but on previous form last prep, if produces similar runs, can go very close.
Apprehend seems to be outclassed today and needs to produce a 5-8L better run than previously this prep.
Crafty Cruiser is a solid horse who keeps on producing nice runs. Does enjoy the distance and will go close once again today.
Verdant meets Crafty Cruiser 0.5kg better off today. Could run a solid race.
Tanah Lot on previous runs can’t win.
Kingdom of War outclassed on weights and previous runs.
No Song No Supper…. no chance.
Morganza meets Crafty Cruiser 4.5kg worse off today. Can’t have.
Confidence 70%
Moonee Valley Race 2
Forgive last start of Manila Jewel and look to previous form. Comes into this with some nice runs under her belt and can go close againt oday going further forward.
Innocent Lady has been improving with each run this prep. Improved again last start and should progress further ahead here today. Go close.
Sussuro not finished within 4L this prep. Needs to improve big time today. Does have a good record at the track. If at best, can run very well.
Silent Attitude over from Adelaide is one to watch. Last start a solid win. Needs to improve in this grade though.
Red Typhoon outclassed.
Secret Liaison shown nothing this prep. Can’t be on today either.
Jelly Baby a strong run last start but isn’t weighted great here today.
Good run second up for Rock Hit over the 1600m. Won at distance before and will go close.
Khandallah two good runs and should find the line well again today from the front. 2kg better off today than Manila Jewel and Innocent Lady while beating them home last start.
Solid times last two wins by Lake Sententia but questions up to this distance.
Timber Cat is hard to place here today. Times are solid but once again, another first up at distance.
Confidence 70%
Moonee Valley Race 3
Ignore Excellantes first up run where put on a stupid pace up front and ran out of juice. Hopefully, that didn’t take it out of him. 3 wins 1 place from 4 second up which paints a solid picture and does have the times and class to go close here today.
General Truce has never won at this distance and seems suited by 900-1000m. Weighted out of this.
Sea Lord is a massive chance here today. Loves Moonee Valley winning 2 from 2 this prep here and could make it 3 from 3.
Hot Spin returned in no form again this prep.
Sir Fernando will be hard to hold out once again but having not won an easier race in Adelaide, hard to be super excited today about him.
Le Remas outclassed on previous two runs last prep. Does go well first up so if you are keen to take a horse that will go back, be our guest!
Big Buddie doesn’t have the class to win this today. Will still put in a solid run.
Grippet going forward today. Weighted nicely but needs to improve.
Odd Sucks has some interesting form lines with a second to Al Aneed two back. On previous run can’t win but on two back form has a chance to improve today for a place.
Confidence 85%
Moonee Valley Race 4
Armed for Action not shown anything this prep that would make you back her today.
Snipzu has some solid form lines behind Better than ready but the last run at Caulfield doesn’t make you want to back her. May be screaming out for a heavy/slow track.
Agueda was super controlling the race at Rosehill last start. This is a much harder race today on weights and class. Will still go very close.
Saturn Rock did all the work last start and still got very close. Will be there at the finish.
Purple Storm will get a solid run once again and be jumping when the time is right. Not sure if she can run the time needed to win, but can test these at best.
Mrs Gray is a super interesting runner here for us. On first up prep form, can win this. Has some super sectionals in her.
Roll The Bones outclassed.
Angelic Light two solid wins this prep. Don’t discuss simply due to the class of races it won. The sectionals were fine.
Potiche outclassed although does come into this nicely on weights.
Silken Gown outclassed.
Lady Nhung outclassed.
Confidence 65%
Moonee Valley Race 5
There are four or five horses that may try and get the front run in this race. This could set the race up well for a mid-field runner or swooper.
Counter Sign comes over from Morphetville into this race. Looks hard first up. Should be there at the end.
It’s Crunch Time has won 4 of last 7 runs with those other three resulting in second placings behind some very solid horses (Freereturn, stratcombe etc). Expecting him to get to the front and he will be hard to run down.
No Means GO down from Darwin. Times are nice enough but to win this needs to improve.
Umgeton on previous two runs can’t win this. Needs to improve a length or two and not sure she gets a solid run.
Duke of Cornwall down from Sydney after a long spell. Can win on previous form but long lay off tells you they probably need to give the horse another run.
Vatican has some very solid form lines. If the speed is on early, will get a nice sit and come late.
Tykook a long time off. Another that could have trained on well with a shot today. Suspect needs longer distances.
Bolisimo Miss on last prep is right in this also. Does go well at this type of distance and can run a super fast race.
Gold Zero won 3 of last four in lesser class country races. Needs to improve.
Chelembra outclassed.
Street Stall outclassed.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 4, 6, 8
Moonee Valley Race 6
The Manikato Stakes!
Buffering is a horse much better suited to the 1000m than 1200m. Looked much fitter second up and the sectionals were very solid. The problem we have with him today is that the price is very short in such a classy field. Goes well at track and distance.
Temple of Boom outclassed at the weights today.
We’re Gonna Rock has been SUPER this prep. First up run a sectional to win this race but that was on the straight. Get the feeling he likes the room to let down but on previous tow runs, looks value today.
Ready to Rip super unlucky not to beat Buffering first up when 0.2L off. The issue you have with this horse once again is that he will get far back once again.
Bel Sprinter can be ignored for last start over the 1200m when a stupid pace was set up front. Treated harshly by the weights but on first up run goes close.
Mental down from Queensland today for this run. Looks outclassed but if trained on can go strongly.
Sea Siren has some queries around her from what the trainer has been saying. Looks suited by the distance and can put in very strong sectionals. Will get a solid run but best to wait a to see the run at the price.
Hallowell Belle ran a massive 33.29 first up at Flemington and was at the front the whole way. Up 3kg today but will be super hard to hold.
Satin Shoes nice runs last two starts. Will put in another solid run today.
Lone Rock a nice run unlucky first up but hard to win coming from that position.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
Moonee Valley Race 7
Big Chill back down in class today. Will need to work hard to get to the front and off the 57kg will not have enough toughness.
Love for Ransom will get too far back today from barrier one. 57kg and will not have the legs IMO.
Donna Cattiva ignorable off first two runs this prep.
Stella Lante was solid in the Guineas. Will go close today from the barrier. Looks suited.
Mareeza put in a super run first up. Will be better for that run and run on today over a longer distance. Suited.
Balaclava Lady‘s form two back has been franked by A Time for Julia winning on Saturday. Got too far back last start and will go further forward today.
Kazanluk on previous runs outclassed.
Sullen Art outclassed.
Poppaea outclassed.
Moreau outclassed.
Easy to Look at outclassed.
Volume One hard to place off that first run. Looks to be outclassed but could run a strong race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 4, 5, 6
Moonee Valley Race 8
Forty Thirty was very game first up behind Prizum and will run on strongly once again. Barrier 11 a slight issue going forward.
Sandhill prince outclassed in this grade.
The Wingman has seen better days. Outclassed.
Devised showed nothing first up and comes down from Canberra into this much harder race.
Lord Wimble ran a super strong race first up. This seems to be a similarly strong race. Weighted nicely and gets a good run from barrier 6.
Oregon Spirit was solid last start but just keeps finding a few too good for him. Will go close once again.
Gea Force outclassed.
Canonized put in a strong run last start. Could run well.
Henshaw outclassed.
Verification didn’t show anything either starts this prep.
Jaffar will be going forward but on times can’t win.
Bia Diamond up in class here today but has been running some solid races. Unfortunately the times don’t measure up.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 5, 6
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