Welcome to The Profits preview of Mornington Cup day. The cup jumps at 4pm so be sure to have your phones at the ready during the work-day. We have been spoiled for a mid-week race card with a 10 events. There is no real point looking through each race as the quality of some of the races were significantly sub-par and from previous experience, you all know that our strike rate is stronger in higher classes. We have outlined four races that seem to have some fairly strong plays available including one of our top black bookers. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy “hump day” punting!
Best Bet
Race 8 Tuscan Fire
Next Best
Race 6 Twilight Royale
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Race 4
Flamberge: Up 2kg today and down in class. Ran ‘ok’ last start at Moonee Valley but has to find about 0.5-1L today on that recent run.
General Peekay: Simply ignore last start at Rosehill. Jumped badly and tightened while not running on (needs to be close to the pace). From barrier 2 and off 57kg has every chance. Will be pushing forward and be hard to beat.
Timely Truce: Very poor last start and down in class today. On run two back looks to be a chance but has to find more today.
Never Dwell: Poorly weighted today up 5kg from meeting against General Peekay who is down 1kg since meeting up in Sydney. Won a 5 horse race at Gosford last start. Will be pushing forward but Waterhouse doesn’t have a great record in Melbourne at all.
Caitlin’s Spirit: Ran poorly last start and was disappointing the previous run. Will be positioning far back in the race and needs a strong pace up front.
Prisoner of War: Hayes runner first up today. Never placed in this class and only ever won on a slow track. Hard to see at this distance.
Sari: Returned well this prep but this is a big step up in class today. Hard to see the progression to win this.
Bel Thor: Looks to be wanting further on first up form but can’t discount.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: The first race of the day that we are interested in getting involved. General Peekay can be forgiven for last start run and should come up a nice price. 1 unit General Peekay to win.
Race 6
Crack a Roadie: There is a lot of hype around this horse and that will make his price unders for this race. Direct Charge has failed to hold up his form since beating Crack A Roadie at Flemington so it is hard to go off this. Obviously he will have trained on, but there are much better horses in this race today.
Resistant: Ran well last start, but I Am Titanium has been Fine Diamond who ran behind him have not ran well since. Price does always get the best out of his horses but he doesn’t seem to be A grade material.
All Rigged Up: Chucked in the deep end last prep and sank. Hard to see enough progression to win today.
Feral Cowboy: Wasn’t backed first up at Caulfield and was 7L off. Hard to touch here today.
Slew Left: Could progress to run a solid race today if everything goes right, but the form doesn’t look good at all.
Lannister: Price runner who was disappointed first prep. Hard to see the progression.
Our Single Doubt: Not good enough on run first up.
The Bronx: Raced very greenly first up. Could show more progression today.
Twilight Royale: The big chance in the race. Down 3kg today which is a HUGE swing and ran on very well on the heavy at Rosehill last start. Important form line 1.3L 2nd to Swing Vote two back when slowly away. Swing Vote ran 3rd behind Miracles of Life. BIG chance.
Great Delight: Doesn’t look good enough on first up run.
Military Pass: Couldn’t be worse than half of these. Two relatives Noble Twostep and Party Rocker are city class. Could get a place on breeding.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Very happy to back Twilight Royale here… it all depends on the price on how we approach it. I suspect we should be able to get around $1.65-$1.75 for the place which looks VERY good value as there is really only three to four chances in the race. 2.5 Units Twilight Royale to place.
*UPDATE* With the scratching of Crack a Roadie we are very happy to take the win bet on twilight Royale.
Race 7
Launay: Only won once from 7 first up (placed 4 other times) but has won 2 placed 3 from 6 at distance. Won last start at course and slightly further distance in this class off similar distance. Expect to see him run a big race today but needs to get a bit of luck from barrier 10 to get a nice position.
Perturbo: Didn’t show anything last prep so it is hard to see how he will return. Has been targeted at this and has a decent first up and class record. Could be value if returns in best form.
Rocking Force: Good run first up but poor second up. Weighted nicely today but may need to find an extra length or two.
Hotham Heights: Just keeps putting in solid runs this prep but has failed to win at this class. Been off a little over a month and could come back fit and fast.
Morant: Good first up record and Williams on board. Weighted nicely and you would expect he will push further forward than normal from barrier 2.
Sheila’s Star: Showed nothing last prep and hard to see this progression.
Eight Bills: Big run last start at Caulfield. Weighted to win today. Rescue Mission and Avoid Lighting form is strong.
Last Gift: Will be pushing forward today and has a massive chance on form up north. Only issue is that he looks better over the 1000m.
Adamon: Can’t back on form lines.
Sweet Ella: Progressed well last prep and should return nicely today. Only issue is that she looks to be wanting further than this.
Stratigraphy: Won three in a row this prep before being disadvantaged by the corner at the valley. Weighted nicely but hard to see the progression to this class.
Jolie Blonde: Good win last start. Could progress well today.
Lady Rum Dum: Can’t see the win here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: A fair few chances with many horses returning today. We saw in the last on Saturday how a horse can progress and train on with There’s Only One taking down our best bet with a massive swoop from the back of the field gaining 2 lengths more than any other horse in the race. 0.75 units Eight Bills 0.5 units Last Gift.
Race 8
Reuben Percival: Up 2.5kg today and meets Shadows In The SUn 2.5kg better off today. Expected a good trakc and he has NEVER won from 11 starts on Good. Has been threatening to break through this prep and is up to this, but looks harshly weighted.
Ironstein: Not good enough on previous three runs.
Shadow in the Sun: Good win last start at Warwick Farm, but up 5kg today looks very harsh. Will be pushing forward and be hard to run down, but the weight should get to him.
Titch: Won a very average race at Terang first up in Australia this prep. Will need to find much more to compete today.
Fiumicino: Disappointed last start and up 2.5kg today. Best looks to be behind him this prep.
Travolta: Didn’t get an easy run out front last start but meets Shadows 2.5kg better off today which gets him closer this trip. Duric should give him every chance from barrier 4.
Tuscan Fire: Down 2.5kg today in equal class is a BIG positive here. The other positive is that he will be pushing over from barrier 13 and taking a sit behind Travolta and Shadows in the Sun. He won’t be forced to do any work in the race and will be allowed to use his the sprint in his leg to out-stay these with weight advantages today.
Macedonian: Hard to see a win today. Not finished closer than 4.3L away the last five starts.
Buxted: Not shown anything this prep.
Boom ‘N’ Zoom: Ignore last start and look to previous start at Flemington. Still needs to find much more here today even when down 4kg.
Durnford: Progressed significantly last start but the extra 2.5kg disadvantage today against Tuscan Fire looks too hard to win this.
Kutchinsky: Good win last start at Flemington which franked Tuscan Fires form. Only meets him 2.5kg better off today which doesn’t seem enough.
Backbone: Looks to be a horse who prefers to be down in the weights and was poorly weighted last start. Down 6kg today but doesn’t seem to have the progression to match these today. We still expect a nice run from him.
Award Season: Somehow this horse has been put up as the favourite for the race. Now look, I can see why people are all over this horse due to his previous runs up in Sydney, BUT what did he beat? He is going up form a BM-75 to a Listed grade race today. From barrier 8, I have him positioning about 5 back on the outside which means he will probably be at least 4-5 wide going around the turn. Huge progression needed for this today.
Altonio: You can’t fault his form but 0 wins or places from 3 at this class. Good runs the last two runs, but will be coming from the back which seems impossible in this field.
Angola: Good run behind Secessio and will progress nicely today… but is outclassed.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: You know how much we rate this horse. We believe Tuscan Fire can progress to be a Group winner this prep, that is how good his times are. It is hilarious to see the TAB offering $3.80 fixed while $4.90 is available on Betfair right now for the horse. Make sure you shop around for the best price in this race. We are expecting to be able to get at least $2 minimum for Tuscan Fire to place and will be backing him here at 1 unit to win and 3 units to place.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
Gamble Responsibly!
