Welcome to the Racing write up for Saturday 29 September 2012. What a huge weekend we had last week with our Best Bet at Caulfield and Sydney both saluting at $5.40 and $3.70. We also had one of our three best value selections put up at $20/$6 when posted win (jumped at $15 on Betfair).
Moonee Valley started slowly last night but we secured the Quaddie, Big 6, Best Bet, Best Value placed and All three lays got in easy. So overall, a very good night! Good luck and happy punting.
Due to the lack of quality in some of the races at Mornington due to Moonee Valley last night, we won’t be looking at every single race. Stick to what we know.
Mornington Best Bet
Race 3 Destiny’s Kiss – Best Bet of the Day
Rosehill Best Bet
Race 2 Proverb
Eagle Farm Best Bet
Race 6 Flying Jet
Morphetville Best Bet
Race 2 Assertive Eagle
Rosehill Race 8 – Capital Commander
Mornington Race 6 Dame Claire
1. Rosehill Race 7 Flying Snitzel
2. Mornington Race 2 Pepin Hoaks
3. Mornington Race 3 Altonio
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Morninton Race 3
A race with huge form lines from last night. Destiny’s Kiss has won four of last five runs with last start 2nd to Bianmick. Bianmick won last night the JRA Cup beating Group winning horses home. This is a huge form line. The other with a chance is Auld Burns and we are happy to have a saver on that horse here.
Mornington Race 4
We are looking at two runners in this race. Clinches ran a huge race last start at Mornington and could improve on that here way down in class. Gogonski is the other we like here. Has quality with some good runs on the form lines and comes into this much easier race a huge chance first up.
Mornington Race 5
This is a huge step down in class for Tranquera. Will need to produce a better run than two previous runs but is value at the price off recent form. The other with a slight chance is Rock Robster. Has the quality.
Quaddie Leg one: 2, 3, 4
Mornington Race 6
Anyone who tells you this is an easy race is lying.
Dame Claire hasn’t been at her best the last three runs but hasn’t gone forward. Interestingly, She is 4 wins 2 places from 9 runs over the 2400m mark and is looking for the distance so don’t take her lightly.
Storm Burst is an obvious favourite in this race but you do have to question the distance with previous two runs at 2400 not working out. Will go close.
My Ex Mate is hard to place on Adelaide form.. Should run well but looks a little too hard today.
The Cleaner has some solid form lines and does need to improve tow in this but will stay on strongly.
Red Eye Special was an eye catching run last start but suspect the extra 4kg makes this a hard task.
Quaddie Leg two: 1, 4, 5, 6, 9
Mornington Race 7
Spanski is a horse with big form lines dropping hugely down in class with Bossy on board. 2.5L and 1.5L behind Platelet who keeps running on strongly is big form lines. Will be hard to beat.
The other horse with some ok form lines is Rose Pattern. Seems well suited.
Quaddie Leg three: 2, 4, 5, 11
Mornington Race 8
Good Value can’t be ignored with last four runs before long spell being within 1.8L of decent quality horses. May want longer than the 1200m.
Specter is a big unknown. 1200 seems too short and didn’t find much last prep.
Midnight at Ascot is the interesting runner of the race. Not been disgraced last two runs in Sydney where 2L and 3L behind quality horses and with the quality out of this race.. should be there at the finish.
New York can’t be ignored on form also but suspect wants longer. But first up record of 0 wins 2 places and 3 places from 3 starts with 0 wins tells you he runs well but just doesn’t get there first up on shorter distances.
Quaddie Leg four: 3, 6, 10, 13
Rosehill Race 1
An interesting race to start the meeting. Tohunga is hard to have on last start fail but could have just been wanting longer.
All of the other form lines can be based around how History No Hurlde is weighted. Black Jag meets History No Hurdle 3kg better off and Hoylonny 2.5kg better off. If History No Hurdle doesn’t improve upon last, run, is weighted out of it. Coup Acclaim was also in that race but seems to also need to improve.
On weights, it all comes down to Hoylonny. If runs well, wins!
Rosehill Race 2
A super strange race with quite a few horses with poor form or lack of experience coming into this race. The stand out is Proverb and if McEvoy gives a decent ride, is winning.
Rosehill Race 3
A pretty sad day in racing when a 250k prize money race ends up with only five runners and a $1.04 favourite. There is only one play in this race for us and this is betting on SkyeRush favourite out. She was super last start in Queensland and if replecates that run, can push More Joyous a little bit.
Rosehill Race 4
Ablrecht is the favourite and certainly deserves to be. Will be hard to pass if produces a similar run as last start.
Kabayan will be riding closer to the front than Albrecht and will also be going well. Will be better positioned than Albrecht.
The interesting runner here for us is Magic Shaft. Ignore first up run and back again.
Rosehill Race 5
A race of pretenders vs a contender.
Fat Al was super last week first up and will be fitter for the run. From barrier 1 will get a gun run and is weighted very well. Simply just wins.
Quaddie Leg one: 1
Rosehill Race 6
Strawberry Boy ran the first half of his last race too fast. Berry off and Cassidy on is an interesting change. Seems to be lesser class horses today and is weighted very well.
The others with chances are Julienas and Kelinni. Feelin gis that Julienas will get the better run and be a chance.
Quaddie Leg two: 2, 5, 6
Rosehill Race 7
No thanks on Flying Snitzel. Shown nothing this prep and weighted badly.
Cavalry Rose needs to improve big time to have a chance here. Has the ability but needs to show it on course.
Don’t Blink on form could go close.
Suspect here De Princesses form will not hold up here up inc lass.
Urban Groove ran a super first up win and should be the one to beat out of Waterhouse Stable.
Quaddie Leg three: 2, 4, 5, 8, 10
Rosehill Race 8
Velrosso super win last start but now up 2.5kg for that win. Will go close once again but always a big effort to come from dead last.
Mahisara trialed well by all accounts and on form could be in this.
Ignore last start of Capital Commander where lost a plate and look two back where decent run behind Dystopia and then run before blocked and hit rail etc. Just been very unlucky and is due.
Huge questionmarks about Under the Sun. Step up in class big time and will need to be super fit.
Finally, Madibagold and O’Crikey will go well.
Quaddie Leg four: 3, 5, 6, 9, 13
Eagle Farm Race 2
Antarctic Dream is running very well on recent form and should break through for another win here.
Eagle Farm Race 5
On Paper it looks like Lucky Luna and Poor Judge will be fighting this one out. Poor Judge has been putting down some massive runs as of late and will be very hard to beat. Interestingly, we like the look of CrossTheStart at big odds Each Way here also.
Eagle Farm Race 6
Super easy win last start by Flying Jet and this eems to be as easy. Will go into this and just win again. Cuddlesome seems the main threat.
Morphetville Race 1
My Bentley is a horse with serious ability and this is a big step back in class. Weighted well and should simply just win
Morphetville Race 2
A race of two for mine. Silver Falls comes over from Melbourne with two very strong runs and weighted well. Should run very solid times here again. The big chance outside of the favourite is Assertive Eagle. Last prep ran a second in a 3F-GP2. Ignore first up run and will go very close.
Morphetville Race 6
Ignore last up run last prep of Keep Cool. First up 2 wins 2 places from 5 and has a good record at track, distance and class. Should run very well.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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