Hello from Prague and soon to be Spain! It’s always good to take a break from a long holiday to get back onto the Horses and there are quite a few I am excited about this week so we are looking at three different venues. As always, Melbourne will be the course in focus but there is some great races to be had at Warwick Farm and especially Eagle Farm. A review of last weekend shows how hard punting can be. Dance With Her ran an amazing race at $10 to have the race pinched on the line by a $100-1 shot and Buffering ran a strong race but just suffered under the distance which was our only concern to finish 2nd. There were quite a few other 2nds to be had for the day and not too many 1sts. Thus, we look to the form today! Good Luck and Good Punting!
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Sandown Race 7 – Flash Of Doubt
Eagle Farm Race 5 – Wealth Princess
Sandown Race 6 – Chasse
Warwick Farm Race 5 – Full Blast
Multi of the week
Just for fun $850-1 multi
Full Blast @ 14.00 (Win)
Wealth Princess@ 4.00 (Win)
Flash Of Doubt@ 4.25 (Win)
Eucumbene @ 3.50 (Win)
Sandown Race 1
Another one of those races you just don’t want to be touching. Let’s have a look anyway.
At first look, Titania Star looks one that will be hard to beat. 1.3L behind Eximius who looked a very good thing first up is not bad form to start with. Down in class here.. should come on well. Expect not to drop to back of field near the turn like last run.
Triquetra is a horse who ran very well first up on Slow ground. Down 1kg and times were solid.
Newitt booked onto a handy type who ran ok first up over 900. Expect it wants longer so extra 300m suits.
Sandown Race 2
I’m going to start this one with a very interesting runner. Cannonball has earnt more prize money than any other horse in this race from it’s 34 starts. This is by far the lowest weight it has been off in a long time and it has a lot of things against it such as not winning since 2009, 1 win 1 place from 8 first ups and never racing at the track. NOW that we have that out of the way, the positives. 54kg. It hasn’t been off this mark in a long time. Look to two runs back 1.8L 2nd to Chasse, this is form that can hold up in a race like this. Down 4.5kg from that run and to be fair down to 1200m instead of 1700. That day Cannonball sat 2nd 2nd 1st in run. Barrier 4, expecting him to go forward and do the same here. Interestingly, 3/3 from 12 from this distance. I’m actually giving him a chance in this race and think he will be there at the end.
Giresun is the horse you just want to be with here. Won 2 of last 4 races and two previous runs of 3rd and 4th in equal class over 1600 looked to be just too long. Back to a distance that suits. Won’t mind a bit of wetness in the track either as it’s best is over 1400.
Miss Bindi was super impressive 2nd up coming from dead last. This is a step up in class thought and only down 1kg. Has never placed from 2 starts but this does look an easier race than previous in class. Could go well but will be hard from the back.
Finally, Rocking Force is well treated off 56.5kg after the claim. Sadler is a wild card onboard though. Has placed in 12 of 14 from this distance (won 4 of those) but is 1/5 from 9 at class. Is suited by weight to have a good shot but think others will hold him out.
Sandown Race 3
Sticking to what we know. Steeplechase isn’t it.
Sandown Race 4
Sticking to what we know. Australian hurdles isn’t it.
Sandown Race 5
Juliet’s Princess was one we backed last week who ran a quality race but just missed out by 0.5L and took 2nd. Up in class but down 3kg, has a 1/2 from 4 record in this class. Won three back, two back 0.2L off beating a quality horse in Lucky Penny.. comes into this one very well.
The New Boy ran very well last start to beat home Little Bro in a 8 horse race. Claims 3kg which means up 0.5kg. Little Bro has ran since and didn’t produce so not sure what to make of the form. Expect to run well.
WestSouthWest ran a huge race in 3Y-GP1 from dead last to finish 1.8L 3rd behind Zabeelionaire. Back from 2500 to 1600 is probably not the best for this horse but claiming 3kg, this horse is hugely down in class and 3kg better. If produces best (which it found last time out) could win this.
Absolutely NO idea what to make of the 3.8L win by Loot ‘N’ Run last up over 1400. This is much stronger a race either way but can’t dismiss that run can you?
Sandown Race 6
This is going to be an awesome race to watch. I’m excited to see so many horses I love in one race.
Let’s start with Chasse. Last four runs in this class has finished 2nd twice and within 1L in the other two. How he is $17 i’ll never know. He is big overs here. Is 2/2 from 5 at distance. Only concern is the 59kg but will enjoy the easy run from barrier 2.
Titch is super interesting at $51-1. Over from New Zealand with some good times to it’s name. Really enjoys a wet track and is claiming 3 to be off 57kg. Not the worst here and could surprise all and win.
We can’t say enough about Magnifique Soleil. This is his toughest task yet off 56.5kg after claims but barrier 5 certainly suits. This is a big step up in class and that’s why you are getting $5. Times all suggest he will be hard to beat. Only issue may be a very wet ground.
Don’t overlook My Bentley. Ran on well last start and Newitt booked.
Mr O’Ceirin has been racing consistently and comes into this off 54kg once again. Has only placed once from 4 starts in this class but is 3 wins from 3 at this distance and will be there at the end.
We must also mention TurnItUp down 3kg from last run.. will go well but think 2-3 others will beat it home.
The most overrated horse in the race is Puissance De Lune. I have real questions if this horse that has only won 56K in prize money will handle the ground and extra distance in such a harder class race. It certainly doesn’t deserve to be $2.30. I’d think $4.50 would be more the price for it here after winning a BM-72 two back by 0.5L in the Bool carnival. These horses are MUCH better than previous company. Happy to take it on at this price.
Potential Tri/F4 Numbers – 1,2,4,5,7,9,12
If you don’t like backing Magnifique Soleil here in such
Sandown Race 7
A cracking race with many handy horses.
Flash Of Doubt is a super impressive Filly. Suited by a fast tempo, could find her best here. Won’t be as easy as the 6L win two back. Expect the extra 200m to suit now this far into prep.
Stacey Lee was good last start and three back but the run two back can’t be ignored in same class. Should be outclassed here.
Cliques could find best if trained on but has been very disappointing in this class previously. Staying well away from her.
Big step up in class for Lady Melksham here but seems to be good enough to handle it. Times are solid and will race well.
Finally, Bonaria and Reigning Lass can’t be discounted if you consider the Lady Melksham form to be of use.
Sandown Race 8
The cream rises to the top so let’s start with Andromache. A short $2.50 favourite and time of writing this, she is up 1kg from an impressive 2.5L win last start in an easier race. Times were sound. Looks to handle both Wet and Dry tracks which is a major positive of this horse. The biggest concern you can have though is a 0/2 from 8 at this class! That being said, she has only won 4 races and the last 3 have been hard of that run.
Candy Stripes is an interesting runner. Positioned dead last almost snatched victory off 57kg last start. Will appreciate a wet ground and the 55.5kg. If horses are swooping in later races, could be one to watch.
Down from QLD, Hallmark Star seems like it can put down a good run off recent times. Once again, another swooper.
Ignore Volando’s first up run. Down 3kg and up to a distance that suits. Has won twice in this class previously and races well at this track. Will be positioned well from barrier 4 for a nice sit in the front of the field and would appreciate a fast pace.
Go My Girl could be value. Hasn’t won first up but has placed 3/6 times. Has also placed 4 of 8 at distance and 55.5kg seems reasonable. Will position mid-field.
Our Pride and Joy was massive last prep but resumed horribly. All you can do is forgive that first run and look to this run. Personally, this is a watch and see on this horse for me.
Sister Norma jumps back to a distance that really doesn’t suit. She gets into positons also where she always gets blocked it seems. Off 58kg, looking elsewhere first up.
Warwick Farm Race 1
The money has been coming big time for Nechita who won a barrier trial by 7.8L over 700m. Personally, never really impressed with trials. The breeding of the horse is sound but $1.90? No thanks. Happy to be against it and look a fool if it wins.
Ptolemy is a quality horse who has put down some good runs recently including 2L 4th behind Dance On Stars in a race that produced winners after that. Will give them a good go.
Weepu is interesting leading start to finish first up and winning at $41. Down 2.5kg from that run as well.
Finally, we get to the horse we are keen on, Diamond Earth. Down 3.5kg from last start big win from start to finish run. 1100 is this horses maximum distance. Would prefer to see it over 1000 but can’t complain about the 1100. Has already won $483,000 in prize money showing it is all quality, yet it is questioned by a first starter in the money markets.
Warwick Farm Race 5
We are quite keen on a horse in this race who comes in with no weight on it’s back and a 2kg claim to make it start off 52kg. Full Blast was impressive winning over 1400 in 1:23.7 with a final sectional of 34.55. Down 5.5kg from that run, will get an even better run.
There has been big raps for Sacred Pins. I’m not so keen on it with the 59kg on board but has some nice times and sectionals. Full Blast does beat it on finishing times off weights though.
Green Beret is a tad over rated. Sectionals are just ‘ok’ and was found wanting big time last up.
Havana Rey could run very well also. Has form behind Wild and proud and last three runs were two wins and one third (0.2L). Barrier 2, will surely try lead start to finish off 52.5kg.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Eucumbene was dominating in a fast paced 1400m on Heavy last run winning by 3.3L and is DOWN 1kg in equal class. Amazing. There are other class horses in this race but as long as runs a more forward run as last time, will go on and win.
Alumbrado is a chance but ‘sectionals’ are not up tot his for us.
Sacred Flyer is very hard to place over this distance. Could surprise and produce big time.
Coup Ay Tee put down a good trial run and decent sectionals. Should run well off previous form.
Eagle Farm Race 3
Sizzling is the word. Just held on last start to be Academus but a win is a win. The extra 200m based off Heavy form should suit and the Heavy (expected) track should help also.
Dance On Stars may struggle again on a heavy track but expect a forward run again which may close some of that 4.3L from two back.
We can all agree the main threat here is Academus. Breeding suggests will go the distance but will he handle the ground? Happy to stick with Sizzling here.
Eagle Farm Race 4
No value in this race.
Eagle Farm Race 5
This will be a great race to watch.
Divorces is the horse that just can’t get it done. Three of last 4 runs finishing within 0.5L. Up to a high recent weight of 58.5kg and a heavy track makes it hard to have her here.
Wealth Princess won well last start but this is a much harder race. Up 1kg. Will be there at the end having only missed a place once. Don’t discount her at all with a 33.87 sectional over 1350 last start.
Bonnie Mac has been putting down some impressive wins. Hard to not have her here but may find just one too good.
Upon This ROck has won 2 of last 3 races but when you look into the races, sectionals were not that brilliant. To be fair with last start, the race was run at a fast pace. Off 58.5kg here happy to be against.
Eagle Farm Race 8
We have been getting so close the last few runs with Neeson and this looks to be what he is looking for. Has won 3 of 5 on Slow/heavy with the other two runs being placings. Ignore last start in much harder grade and is suited here. Barrier 17 is the only big issue but will be given a good ride by Rodd (hopefully not 3 wide like two back run). Extra 100m will help also.
Steel Zip ran great last up and could be a contender here. Seems to prefer heavy over good tracks.
Audacious Spirit should lead this race up and try and run them out of it. With 53kg on his back, could be hard for the others to run down.
Riva De Lago could swoop late if given a good run. Slow/Heavy ground a big issue for him though.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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