Best bet of the day
Race 7 – Number 16 – Mosheen – Currently paying 6-1
Unplaced – didn’t handle ground or run on for the full distance
Leg 1: 1, 10, 4, 7 – Loss
Leg 2: 16, 1 – Loss
Leg 3: 6, 9, 10 – Win
Leg 4: 2, 4, 10 – Win
$72 for 100%
Quaddie paid $12,200 for 100%
Leg 1: 1, 6 – Win
Leg 2: 3, 8, 12 – Win
Leg 3: 1, 10, 7 – Loss
Leg 4: 16, 1 – Loss
Leg 5: 6, 9, 10 – Win
Leg 6: 2, 4, 10 – Win
$120 for 50%
Big 6 paid $133,000 for 100%
Galah deserves to be the favourite in this race but at $1.60… is just too short.
The two challenges for us are First Course and Meethaq. We have First Course ahead of Meethaq even though it was beaten last up by Meethaq. A slow track will suit First Course and that is what we are hoping for early in the morning with First Course at 10s for the win and 2s for the place. If you are backing for the win, put a saver bet on Galah.
Galah wins as expected. First Course finished 4th
Even though this is Race 2, this was the last race form that was done because it is such a hard race to pick. If I was to give a confidence factor on every race, this would probably be the lowest due to the quality of horses competing. There are great raps on Moyenne Corniche who has come all the way from the UK for the Cup and finished 3rd to Shewan last up by 1L. This is a horse that has run 26 starts with only 2 wins, both on a good track, so we have to discount it here. Looking away from that, there are only two other horses we really like in this race. Unfortunately Older Than Time has a very poor record on Dead tracks so we are also going to discount. This leaves us with just one, A horse who won it’s last Group 3 start and finished 2nd in the Caulfield Cup, Green Moon. Quality horse and will be hard to beat.
On course, we changed our ‘tip’ to Anudjawun which placed 3rd (ran at 20s). Green Moon unplaced
Atlantic Jewel is a gem of a horse (pun intended). It also deserves to be a $1.30 favourite. Can we back anything else against it? Sure we can. Why? It’s had four runs and the only one it didn’t beat the field by more than 1L in was on a dead track, the rest were on Good. So the ground is a concern. Now so will the ground suit? Bliss Street gave a great run on a dead track last weekend and goes down 4kg in weight for this one while AJ goes up 3.5kg. The other two to look at are Gliding and Dowager Queen. Both don’t have an amazing record on wet tracks but you must put Dowager Queen ahead of Gliding. Our main bets for this race will be Bliss Street to place, all 4 in a Trifecta and a small one on Bliss Street to win.
Finished 4th – Atlantic Jewel won as expected
Sepoy is the favourite for a reason. A quality horse that has won most of it’s races with ease. Sepoy may find this race run a little too fast for it’s liking as the main favourites are all front runners (apart from Bear Hero who sits 3rd-6th normally). This makes Bear Hero at 17s an interesting runner, having ran an amazing 55.5 (48.5kg) over 1000. The other interesting runner for us is Unique Quality which on it’s last run a month a half ago got within 1.3L of Sepoy. At 50s, we are willing to take it small E/W.
The testing material for a number of quality horses in this race. We stick true to our picks and are going to back Glass Harmonium to get up in this race from a good barrier draw. Was slowly away last start and never given a run so forgive last up. There are three other good chances in the race with Midas Touch coming into this race off very similar form to Glass Harmonium. Wall Street gave a good run behind Pinker Pinker in the plate last weekend and should be put a little further up the order in this race to give it a better shot while you can’t discount Rekindled Interest.
1st – Glass Harmonium at $8.10
An impressive horse, we have to put Manawanui on top in this race at a very backable price of 2.80. If you can find 1.50 for the place, snap it up. You are getting on a horse that has won 6 and placed in 2 from 8 starts with the latest loss by 0.2L. The other top hopes in the race are Sabrage who gave a great run last up to win. The other horse is Niagara who had a big 6L win two back at CANT. Got within 1.5L of Sabrage last up suffering interference and being blocked for a run. There is one more horse to think about and that’s the second favourite – Induna.
There have been ‘words on the street’ that there are things wrong with More Joyous this week and there is no way I can back her here on a wet track. We are looking to the low weight in this race with Mosheen off 49kg in weaker class down 6.5kg! And it was second behind a handy horse called Atlantic Jewel… We are not going to look any wider. Get on ASAP at the 6s being offered
A blinder of a race once again. Sister Madly has come up against two amazing horses (Sepoy + More Joyous) that have been able to better her, in the last two races with a good win before that. She has to go in as favourite but is major overs at 4s. The other two horses that you MUST look at in this race are Curtana and Mid Summer Music who both gave good runs up last start against Sepoy. Mid Summer Music has won 4 of its last 7 while getting 2 2nds and 1 3rd (nosed out of 2nd place) and you can expect MSM to be there at the end. Curtana gave a great run last start nosing out MSM for 2nd.
1st – Sister Madly at $4.20
Amaethon ran very well last up but just couldn’t last it out. Down 2.5kg and on a Wet track should suit for a big run in lesser class at 18s. The other big chances in the race have to be Woorim who was not disgraced last up in Group 1 level finishing 6th. At 11s, we will be putting a bit on him as well. We are also willing to forgive Toorak Toff’s last up run. The run before hand in a field of 17 in Group 1 level was impressive. Another one worth having a little look into. If these three make the Trifecta, which is quite possible, it will pay VERY big.
1st – Worrim at $14