50% for $113 (Can take out some of the value picks in the 8th)
We are looking fairly wide in the first race. Regular Aussie has placed in it’s last four runs including winning last up, in an open class (Stronger class race), with 4.5KG more on it’s back, and winning by 3L. The time run was 1:29.4. Compare this to the $4 fav in the race who ran it’s last run over 1500 (same distance) and finished 6th in a Weaker class race, in 1:32.7 (dead compared to good track..). That’s over 3 seconds difference. Regular Aussie is currently paying 70s on Best Tote currently and we are going to load up (Expect it to run around 30-40s..).
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Regular Aussie $36 win $10 place
Rose Pattern is a quality horse and on times is the top horse for us in this race. Forgive it’s last run nearly a month ago, it has been trained on and will run well. This is a touch race and expect Twilighting and Cliques to factor into the run.
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Rose Pattern: $9 win $2.70 place
There are four horses we really like in this VERY competitive race and one of them is not the favourite who is WAYYYYY too short here. The one we have on top is a quality mare with a lot to give in Miss Octopussy. Excuse the first up run and you will realise the value for this horse. The second horse is Rue Maple who was 0.8L behind Satin Shoes last start and is down 2.5kg from that run. Form speaks well of this horse. The other two horses are Celts who was an unlucky loser last start to Hinemoa and Dasoudi who comes out of a Group 1 NZ race gaining a 3kg advantage after a 4 month break.
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Miss Octopussy: $14 win $3.80 place, Rue Maple : $21 win $5.50 place, Celts: $12 win $3.50 place, Dasoudi: $35 win $8 place
Another quality race. We have this down to three in-form horses. It is hard to ignore Satin Shoes after it’s last run only 1.5L behind Sepoy and it’s win over Rue Maple the week before. If Rue Maple wins the 3rd race, that form should tell you to load up, so something to watch out for form wise. The other two horses we really like in this race are Bolisimo Moss who we can forgive for it’s last run slowly away and hanging out including down 4kg in weight. The other horse is Anise. A number of quality rides going close recently but has not been able to do better than 4th in it’s last two.
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Satin Shoes: $7.50 win $2.70 place, Bolisimo Moss: $5.50 win $2.10 place, Anise: $3.70 win $1.70 place
Another race, another three chances. Emboldened is on top for us here. Up in grade, coming over from Darwin. It’s times are MASSIVELY IMPRESSIVE. Coming off a 6.5L win last up over 1300 in an amazingly fast 15.9 off 58.5k, it runs at 53kg, we have it on top.
Grand Britannia is another interesting runner in this one. Massively down in grade and off 53kg (very strange), It has finished within 3L of Sepoy in recent runs and will appreciate the weight loss and severe drop in class.
Translation is also coming down in class but gains 1KG from it’s last run where it was a handy 3.3L behind Facile Tigre who won very impressively on Melbourne Cup day by about 2L. Expect it to come fast late.
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Emboldened: $15.50 win $5.10 place, Grand Britannia: $12.50 win $4.10 place, Translation: $10.00 win $3.60 place
We are staying away from Mosheen up in distance here. We doubt it will stay off the 55kg. We have to look towards Dowager Queen who should stay on better than Gliding in this race. The other horse to look at also is Rahveel who looks like the type to stay on well over this distance.
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Dowager Queen $3.80 win $1.60 place, Rahveel: $6.50 win $2.20 place
The two horses we like in this race won their last runs. Proliferate beat Regular Aussie last up in a VERY fast 1:37.3 while Torah beat a class field in 1:37.8. Both go up 3/4kg in weight which hurts their times a little. Proliferate is out of More Than Ready and expect it to lead all the way and for Torah to be coming for it around the turn.
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Proliferate $5.70 win $2.00 place, Torah: $4.80 win $1.80 place
We are looking outside the favourites here into some quality horses in the ‘outside block’. Nicholls Court is in our blackbook for a good reason, it was very impressive in it’s last two three runs and should run well here.
Rocking Force was unlucky last up in a run behind Facile Tigre whose form line is good. Suffered interference twice during the race and only lost by 2.3L, with a 0.2L the race before that to Definitely Ready.
Finally, Noble Heir is an interesting runner. It has a massively fast 56.7 run off 60kg overseas. It has been off nearly 8 months and if it comes with it’s best, will be hard to beat! Worth a small spec.
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Nicholls Court $18.50 win $5.40 place, Rocking Force: $19.50 win $5.70 place, Noble Heir: $40.00 win $10.00 place
We are only looking towards one horse here in Cosmic Causeway. Has been very impressive it’s last two runs and will go very close!
Horse odds as of 9pm AEST: Cosmic Causeway $4.20 win $1.80 place
Majority of prices quoted are from Betfair.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.