Havatryst has been in sensational form recording some quality times over the 1200 distance. Up in grade and on the lowest weight it’s been for a long time AND out of barrier 1, this race is suited. 5 wins 1 place from 7 starts over 1200 and 2 wins from 3 runs on track.
Currently paying $18 on Betfair. Expect it to shorten. We do expect to see a big run from Excellantes also but shorter than what we expected.
Barbados is very short but deserves it here. Should lead from start to finish in a fairly quick pace.
Back Barbados 1 Unit E/W at $3
Embark has been within 1.3L the last 5 starts and finally broke through 3 runs back. Embark has been recording some very handy run times and will be there at the finish.
Happy Hussy ran a good race last up to win by 4L and comes into this race into a weaker grade off a very low weight. If the pace is slow, it will be hard to hold out.
Back Embark 1 Unit E/W at $11 and Happy Huss 1 Unit E/W at $6
There are two we like in this race and they finsihed within 0.2L of each other last up. Fill The Page has run very well in it’s last 4 starts with two firsts and a close 0.5L 3rd last up on a Heavy ground. Fill The Pages times make it the on top pick for us here.
Closely behind and infront of Fill The Page last start was Generals Sniper. It’s last two runs have been within 0.3 and 0.4L of the winners and expect a good leading run from barrier 1.
Back Fill The Page 1 Unit E/W at $16 and Generals Sniper 1 Unit E/W at $9
The two horses with massive chances here are both coming into this race down on weight and down on class.
Sky Raider has won 2/2 from this distance and has won 4 of it’s last 5 starts in better company. Is massive overs.
The second is kind of a spec. Heavily down in weight and in weaker class the only problem is the distance. Looks like Beaveroo has trained on well and will go well over the distance but it’s really just a spec as its 0/0 from 8 over distance.
Back Sky Raider 1.5 Units E/W at $6 and back Beaveroo 0.5 Units E/W at $26
Forgive the poor run last week by Kontiki Park. Barrier 14 didn’t help and the company was too strong. Back down in grade, he will find this easier.
Back Kontiki Park 1 Unit E/W at $7.50
A very hard race to pick. We are liking two horses but we have the outsider of them on top of the other.
Assertive Billy has ran two amazing races recently over similar distances and all signs suggest it can win over the 2400 metres. Won at track two runs back as well.
The other horse is also stepping up in class being Nextanix. It has been running very consistantly and has been within 1.8L in the last 4 starts. If the track is Dead, will be well suited and come from the back on the turn.
Back Assertive Billy 0.75 Units E/W at $30 and Nextanix 0.75 Units E/W at $18
There are two chances we like in this race. One is fairly short and one is long odds!
The first horse is Wazn. Forgive the first up start of this horse and you have a magical record in this class with no more than 1.8L loss distance in the last 4 starts. Will enjoy the extra distance and has a 2 wins 2 places from 6 starts on this distance record with a nice 2 win and 1 place from 4 on the track.
Finally, a long odds horse with a major chance. Sebony is DOWN in class, down 1.5KG in weight (52kg) and won 4 runs back in better company. Last time out in an Open class race lost by 1.5L over a similar distance. Has won 6 and placed in 6 from 19 starts over distance. A big chance.
Back Wazn 1 Unit E/W at $8. Also back Sebony 0.5 Unit E//W at $70
The favourite Rocker is very short and deserves it with some stunning times on it’s record over this distance. There is only one horse we can see beating it here and that is Grand Rhumba who is down 4.5KG, severly down in class and has fast run times to it’s record that can rival.
Back Rocker 1 Unit E/W at $2.75 and Grand Rhumba 0.5 Unit E/W at $60 (Unsure what it will shorten to).
Majority of prices quoted are from Betfair the night before.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.