Best Bet: Race 8 – Spirit Song – WON
Best Value Best: Race 4 – Snow Cover
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to any pick that we will be having a saver bet on or specing for a small amount.
We have this race down to 3 chances.
At the top of the list is obviously Snitzerland – WON. A brilliant win at Mornington easily has to set for this one from a perfect barrier and good weight.
Mrs Gray – Unplaced is the most interesting runner in this race. A great run at the Gold Coast 2L behind Driefontein and second in the two previous to that including a 1.3L loss to Samaready in a good time. Nolen on board and good weight, expect a lightly closer to the front run than at Gold Coast.
Finally, Coins – 3rd is one to watch. Lost by 2L first up when slowly away and disappointing for run and blocked. Was in a fairly poor time but has had a good spell.
We will most likely be backing Snitzerland to win this one outright with a saver bet on Mrs Gray.
Another very hard to pick race. Let’s start by looking at the most interesting runner. Off a 5 month spell, Sharnee Rose – 2nd – Photo comes into this race well. Hasn’t won a race yet… but when you consider it has two seconds behind Mosheen (0.2L0 and Atlantic Jewel (0.8L) over 1000 and 1200, it is a horse with HUGE potential. Looked to struggle when it went up to 1400 and 1600 last prep and will be massively hard to beat here.
Unpretentious is an interesting runner that just does things wrong every time. Will be in the race but doubt it will win. Tri/F4 hopeful.
Instalment – WON has a good shot in this race. Expect it to lead out and put on a fast tempo. Seems to look the winner with 100 to go but just dies on it’s runs. Could go close.
Halle Rocks is extremely short on the tote. It can run fast or slow race times so comes into this well but looks far too short with the quality of horse in this race.
American Dream – 3rd has a handy run behind Adamantium three back which is proving to be good form at the moment and a nice time win over 1200 in Adelaide coming into this. Expect a bold run.
Finally, Glows – 4th is a horse who has beaten home Soft Sands as of late and finally won a good race at MV over the 1200. Drawn a good barrier, will be hard to hold out in a non-gut-busting pace run race. Has won 3 of last 5, 2nd by 0.1L and then 2.8L behind a horse that wins this race.
Tri paid $900 F4 paid $6900 if you followed the above.
This one looms up to be another good race.
There are quite a few chances in this one but the one that is expected to come out and dominate is All Too Hard – WON who was a very convincing winner first up in a fast time over 1100. The step up to 1400 is the one big concern but on breeding it should be no trouble.
ShamExpress – Unplaced is a very talented horse bred for longer than the 1200 it has been running over so the step up works. With Williams on board, you know a good ride will be given. Will be more suited to it’s front running roll on a track better than the slow it almost won off last up (bad a bad barrier draw also). Should go close.
I’m not going to look much further into the race for you but Pronto Pronot, Mama’s Choice, Jimando and Rusambo are about as wide as you need to look.
A race with a large number of chances. Let’s start from the ones we think have shots but just can’t see getting there.
Wall Street is the first one. This horse hasn’t won since November of 2010 (Beating Dao Dao who hasn’t won for as long). It has a shot but just can’t see it beating these home.
Scenic Shot is a horse with alot of talent also but is a horse that doesn’t come on until it has a few runes with a 1/1 from 9 2nd up record. Think this is too short a distance and too strong a race on the weights.
Now let’s look at the horses with big hopes.
Pied A Terre is a horse that just keeps winning. Having won 4 from 5, you can’t discount the horse off 54kg. Question the distance first time.
Speediness has won it’s last two races (only just) in very fast times. Also has a 2nd to it’s name behind Sincero. Will go close here. Only test is the distance.
Now onto three horses with big chances at overs.
Starting with Rothera – Unplaced who comes into this race off 57kg. Has a great record of 4 wins over this distance from 7 runs. Is great second up with 3 wins from 7 and is also 5 wins 2 places from 18 at this class. Expect Moody to have it going this time out and to be driven forward from barrier 3. Only concern is the 4 starts for 0 wins at Flemington.
Moving onto the next horse. Over Quota – Unplaced (Once Again) is over the odds! Having won 4 of its last 5, Over Quota will be in this race. The barrier is a disadvantage but will be driven to the normal position and given every chance.
Finally, Snow Cover – Unplaced comes into this race off a blistering run last up. This horse is due a big win and if ridden closer to the pace than last time out, will come with a big run late.
We have this race down to 4 horses, but we have been able to pick one on top.
Shopaholic – Unplaced comes into this race off a 1L win over Soft Sand and before that beating home Mosheen. Boss gave Shopaholic the perfect ride last run and we expect similar to happen today. Soft Sands is a horse that we feel just can’t handle a fast pace race and needs the tempo set to a slow speed. It won’t find it here and is 0.5KG worse off than last week vs Shopaholic.
Total Attraction – 4th is a VERY interesting runner. Having won 3/3 including a 1600m in a good time at Flemington and before that 1400 in once again a decent time at Caulfield, it suited here. Currently at $20, you can’t discount the horse. Moody will have it ready and Barrier 3 is perfect.
Angel of Mercy looked the winner against Shopaholic with 75M to go last run but just didn’t get to the line. Barrier 12 is giving the horse no favours either. The long straight just seemed a tad too long and if we do get a slightly wet track, can’t see it reversing the form from last run.
One of those races you can over analyse until the cows come home.
We are taking a very simple approach. Hay List – WON will win this race. Ran a 55.8 over the 1000 last up and expect a similar very fast race over the 1200 once again. There is no horse in this race that could have ran a 55.8 over 1000 so therefore we believe nothing can match the horse here.
Now that we have that out of the way we will be looking at everything else (with a slight chance) for you and your quaddies.
Beaded is a horse that is currently over the odds. Having ran great times over 1400 and 1200 including 0.2L loss to Sincero to it’s name, this is a horse with lots of ability. Will probably be murdered with a ride from Mc Evoy but the current odds are over.
Rain Affair – Unplaced appears to be the main danger for Hay List. Has won 10 from 11 and has an extremely fast 1100 run of 1:02.1 to it’s name. Drawn perfectly and will lead this one out on the other side of the track. You can’t go wrong backing this horse either.
Bel Sprinter is a horse we are happy to take on every day of the week here. Majority of it’s wins have been in slow times with fast sectionals at the end but that won’t happen with such a furious pace on. Happy to be against it.
Facile Tigre – Unplaced is a VERY interesting runner. We were on it last start in the Oakleigh and it looked the winner 100 out but lost by 0.3L and got 3rd. Does have the times to go close here and is 1/1 from the track. Weighted VERY well with 52.5kg on it’s back, given every chance. Disappointment is that Nikolic isn’t riding it.
Master of Design – Unplaced is worth a look in. Only ended 2L behind in the Oakleigh after being blocked for a run and pulling hard. Drops down to 52kg and could be a big roughie chance.
Foxwedge is a horse that drops down massively in weight but couldn’t go anywhere near with the speed put on during the BC/Haylist race. The horse has not run any fast times in it’s career but with 50kg onboard, has a chance. Still can’t be on it here.
Finally, African Pulse comes in with no wight also. Can run decent times but looks to be just a little too slow here.
We were very keen on Lucas Cranach in this race until it was unfortunately pulled out due to injury (will be back to win the Melbourne Cup this Spring hopefully).
We have this race down to five horses.
The first we will look at is Glass Harmonium. I think it is safe to say the run first up was quite poor. It didn’t seem to give much at all on the turn and just gave up the lead.. boxing on as expected but not well enough. Love the horse but really off that last performance think it needs another run and to not be against the Melbourne Cup winner.
Southern Speed jumped at stupid odds last time out and was beaten home by 4 others. Comes into this with the same weight and jockey onboard. While SS is a great horse, it was very lucky to win the Caulfield Cup when December Draw broke down on the turn and was very well weighted. It doesn’t have that Luxury here with 57kg on it’s back and a classier field including Glass Harmonium that has beaten it since (and home last time out). Is 0/3 from 6 on distance and has a horrible record at the track. Have to look elsewhere.
Manighar is a horse that always jumps out and runs a great race. It has form behind Americain and ran very well in the Melbourne Cup (behind Americain once again). Never looked a winner last start but ran on very well and should box on from a little closer to the front.
Illo is a horse that keeps improving. Was given a little more gusto to the line for my mind last start to snatch second just and will be close in this one.
In the end, it all comes down to Americain – Too far back strong run late for 3rd . A quality horse first up (not a problem) over a distance that may seem a little too short, but will suit the horse perfectly. Americain is so well weighted in this race as well. Get on board!
Not sure if you have ever seen us write up about a horse called Spirit Song – WON before.. oh you have? Good! Well it’s running in this race today at a VERY backable price.
Spirit Song has won four of it’s last six runs with a 0.5L and 0.8L 2nd placing the other two runs. Down in distance to where the last win was by 3.8L (lesser company), Spirit Song looks suited to this race off a VERY light 54kg (down 6kg!!!) and from barrier 4.
Looking at the others, Vintedge seems suited to longer distances. Lady Lynette has been going along well but her times are sub-par to what is needed to win this and has a very poor Flemington record.
Eternal Sunshine – Unplaced is an interesting runner. Up in class but down 5kg in weight after running a 1:36.4 on a dead track over 1600. Has a 4/3 from 9 record over distance and has won it’s last two runs. The only downside is that it looks more suited to a corner and short straight track like Caulfield or MV.
Hi Belle – 4th is the main danger in this race to Spirit Song. She was very impressive at last start over the 1400 in what was a fairly slowly ran race time. She has a 4/1 from 6 record over distance and 4/1 from 10 in class record. A 0/0 from 2 at Flemington record is something to be a little worried about but she has improved on since those runs.
Probably the hardest race of the day to pick a winner in.
Let’s start from the top with the ones we like.
Yosei is a runner with big claims. Coming out of Group 1’s, 1400 is the perfect distance for this horse. The only querys are Flemington, it seems suited to other tracks and First up only 1 win on record.. and with a 59kg weight, we have to let it go by.
Blackie is an interesting runner in this race. Has won 4 from 5 over distance (all it’s wins). Three back it was 1L behind Woorim who we know won the Oakleigh plate. May surprise first up but it feel slike this is just too hard.
New Day Rising was one of our picks last week but looked to not handle the Slow Ground. Back onto something more suited, it will run a good race. Barrier 15 is a bit of a concern as we hope this horse goes forward (didn’t last week).
Eraset is a horse with ability and good form lines but with a 0/3 from 7 at Flemington record, we are happy to take it on here coming form the back.
Fawkner is one to watch. It puts down good times and has won 4 of it’s 7 races only not placing once. This is a big step up but if it has been trained on well as expected, don’t dismiss it. Must include in any Quaddie/F4/Tri.
An interesting NZ raider has made it’s way over for this race. Zabisco has been putting down some very good times over in New Zealand with some very close finishes. This does look a big of a step up but it should be suited after training on well and Williams onboard.
Now onto the two runners we respect the most here.
The first is Pago Rock – 2nd. 54kg, JUST beaten by Speediness last start (if Speediness wins eariler in day very good form line then) in a very quick time. Gate 6, everything to suit having won 6 of 9 starts.
Smokin’ Joey – WON is the other horse we fancy here. Up in class but down 6kg. Ran a BLISTERING 1:21.9 last start and won by 2.8L with two Stewards comments to it’s name as well! The one major concern is a 5 start for 0 wins 0 places at Flemington. The latest run, 1L behind Flyingconi can be forgiven for not placing.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.