Working our way through the form now. Expect all races to be posted just before the jump of race 1 (which is a no bet race).
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to any pick that we will be having a saver bet on or specing for a small amount.
No real form, new horses with big chances, no bets here.
Red Rain is a first up hose that has put down some big runs. 2 wins from 2 first up and 2 wins from 2 over distance. Has the ability.
Jessica Rose back in class and up 3kg. Has only ever won on a Dead track which is a bonus and ran really well 2nd last start to Miss octopussy. Has some ok times and will lead this one out.
Tykook is an interesting runner. Down in class and off equal weight due to Katie Mallyon onboard who we know is a great rider. 3/3 from 9 over distance, 1/1 from 2 on dead and 3/1 from 9 in class. Looks like this horse has been wanting easier company for a long time and this is the easiest race it’s been in for a while. Has not finished worse than 5th in last 11 starts.
Set The Course is a horse that has some big potential. Just didn’t get home well the last two starts so can’t have it here today. Prefers a Good track also.
Verification is way back in class. If you forget the previous run in much harder company, Verification looks the winner here. Only concern is that it has never won on a dead track.
Gottino has some very strange, interesting form. Has run on very well since coming over from NZ to win it’s first two starts. This horse has only ever won or been unplaced in races before. 1 start and 1 win on this track. Deserves to be favourite but can’t back at the price.
An open race with lots of chances.
Let’s start with the quality of the race. Eclair Surprise resumes here today and has won first up. This is a huge easier race than it’s last three runs where it was very competitive and won one. Has also won over Distance, on ground and in class.
Faster Son is a horse with a lot of claims coming into this race but with 57kg and the dead track, I don’t like looking towards it here. Ran well two back and if it can produce that has a big shot here but is way too short for a mabey.
Typeface has a very good record going into this race with 1/2 from 3 first up and 2/3 from 6 at distance and 2/2 from 5 on dead. Ignore last run of the prep, Typeface has won two equal quality races and finished 1.5L 2nd to a handy horse called Pago Rock and 0.5L 3rd to Spirited Eagle. Both horse produced after those runs so very good form lines.
Finally, Sertorius is a very interesting runner. 1/3 from 5 over distance and 1/2 from 4 on dead. Has been running very well in lesser company recently and finished 2nd to Lucky Eighty Eight over 2000 before a spell. Could be a threat if trained on but one must think after the good result over 2000 and breading that it will only be a runout with no pushing.
Rowland is a horse with big potential. Has just been 1-3L short this prep and come up against some very handy horses in Hanks and Drunken Sailor the last two runs out. Back down in grade and looks to be really in this race. The weight does seem an issue but Happy to ignore that.
Off the last two runs, Robrick has a good shot.
Jelly Baby comes in off a good win on slow. Looks like the ground may have had something to do with that as well as the quality of field. Happy to take this thing on!
A Roddick Moment can’t be ignored. Running well, decent times and liking a good track. Don’t forget from multipuls.
Try Pickle follows the same form line of A Roddick Moment and has a big win before that. One to keep in mind for multipuls.
Another race with many chances.
Let’s start with Ky’s The Limit. Has an ok first up record but last prep pulled hard and just didn’t run well first up. Does have an ok record on the distance and it seems to either win or just not place so suggest if you back to take on the head.
Princess Narine comes into this race with some high quality form-lines. Ignore last start run and look two back at the close 2nd behind Speediness. 2/3 from 8 over distance but interestingly 0/3 from 5 in class.. Should find this hard but will go close.
Sorell comes into this race with some very slow timed wins from small fields at lesser tracks. Can’t have it on form.
Two Hills is fairly off and on. Ollie was on fire last night at MV with some big rides and that gives this horse more of a chance than it deserves. The times are fairly good on this horse but i’m not sure it can beat everything here home.
Desatin ran on well last prep but it was a very small field. Will find a harder run from the back with a wide barrier.
Maquina is a favourite horse of ours. Disappointed to see Katie Mallyon not riding it. Think this is a step up thats not suited and 0/1 from 7 in class says that.
Sparks Alight is a very strong horse. It ran on very well to win a strong race last out over 1200. It and Iridescente were 3L clear of anything else. Has a GREAT record here with 3/4 from 7 on track and has a good record on dead also. Barrier suits and this looks set up.
Lady Rock Has not been more than 2.3L behind in last 4 runs. Won well at a very lesser track. Can’t discount on previous form but can’t have it either in this class.
Fashion Is a horse that jumps slowly so watch out for that if you are looking for a lay to back bet. On recent form, it can’t win this class of race.
Folding Gear. It’s last run was.. WOW. We tipped it up at 50s and it almost saluted for us! It comes into this race even better. Getting an extra 200m and also back onto a Dead track. The horse hasn’t been more than 2L out of any of it’s last 5 races so expect it to run on extremely well. Weighted to win with a lateish run.
Eraset is a horse we couldn’t back but have to put in. All it’s last 5 runs have been very valid and 4/4 from 12 over distance is a good record. Just gets too far back and caught in traffic.
Happy Trails was another horse that impressed last up with a big run after getting back to near last in the run. Doesn’t have a great record on dead tracks but will go close.
My Bentley got blocked for a run last start in the Kilmore Cup for a valid 2nd behind Over Quota. It has been racing in much harder races than this and get’s a chance here. Only problem is a poor dead track form but that can be forgiven for the races it has been in.
Testacana was a big back fro us last start and the very fast time on a slow track didn’t suit. Expecting the extra 200m (4 wins from 5 starts over distance) will not be of problem with a much nicer barrier (3) instead of 16 last run. Also the dead track is suited to the horse.
Life to the full is a horse that has been racing in better company recently. A 3L loss to Smokin Joey last up in a fast 1400 time is a good run. Include in multis.
So Swift deserves to be the favourite in this race. A big win over Niagara after winning it’s Maiden and should have trained on very well here.
Upbeat won at 20s for us the other week on a dead track over a slightly longer distance. Barrier 3 and down in class, looks overs at the price.
The New Boy is interesting but the distance doesn’t seem to be what it is looking for. May surprise..
Huegill. Dislike this horse, just doesn’t do enough tow in. Much easier race but would rather others over this distance.
Shanghai Warrior is in a MUCH harder race than it’s last few wins. Does it deserve to be this price? No way. Happy to be against it off the weight and especially barrier 16.
Canonized has a very good form line with a win over Instalment. Has run well it’s last five starts excluding the run on Heavy. Barrier 2 helps and will run well. Class may be alittle too hard for it here today though.
Finally Festina Lente is a horse to watch.. Has run very well the last three starts and Motorised and Sabres have both run on very well after the races.
Glissade is an interesting runner. Very far down in grade here and has had a very long spell. Ignore last two runs before spell and it’s right in this.
Arctic Command is a horse that promised a lot and under delivered. A big 2YO-G3 win and then nothing since. Has had a long spell and could surprise.
British General is a quality horse. Last two runs have been easy wins from start to finish. Barrier 14 a concern but Currie will still get forward and cross no problems.. Much harder race is only concern and can’t have on the class here.
Ignore last start of Strike The Tiger. Up in distance suits and enjoys a dead track.
Pit Street has had a big spell and hopefully comes in with some class. Is a good horse on it’s day but feel the distance won’t suit.
That’s Not It is a very interesting runner. A 1.5L loss to Pago Rock 2 back is a very good form line. Back down to a very winable grade and Katie Mallyon onboard claiming 3 gives it every chance. Hopefully they take it forward to the front 5-6.
Not sure what to make of Miss Inform’s form as last two were on heavy. Ran on well.
Finally, Spartini can’t be discounted on form.. Two good wins over 1100 last two runs. Times a little slow though and think higher quality here.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.