Best of the day – Race 7 – Agrippa
Best value of the day – Race 8 – Testascana
Persian Star (3rd) hasn’t won for a long time and is due. It’s last three runs at Flemington have resulted in 2L, 1.3L and 1L loses. If you look at the horses record, it is begging for a Dead track with 5/6 from 23 on dead compared to 2/6 from 28 on Good (last 5 runs all on good track).
When you consider the horse is 50% place over distance and slightly better at Flemington, the price is right to take it E/W.
Probably the hardest race of the day. There are about 10 horses that ‘could’ win this on their day.
Let’s start from the top. Coldens Choice is 3/3 from 7 over this distance and is stepping back in grade (gets the weight for it) and is 2/2 from 5 on dead. Ran very well two back at Flemington.
Over Quota was $15 last night AGAIN and has shortened a bit so the value may have been snapped up. Won it’s last three, back down in class and only gains 2kg. Will be hard to hold out and is overs still.
Good run last week for Population but barrier 17 puts him out of it for us.
Lethal Arrow (Poor run, too much work to get to front from outside barrier – unplaced) looks set to win here. Back onto a dead track and is 4.5kg better off than it’s last run against Over Quota. Barrier 12 is a slight issue but will still go forward.
Chasse ran well last start at Caulfield for the win. Has never won at Flemington is an issue but does like a dead track. Has sound form and could be crashing the line at the end.
Manila Jewel is long odds but has some impressive results against horses that are going well at the moment. Watch this horse going forward.
Under The Hat (Won at $5.60) was our special a few weeks ago. It was massive coming from dead last about 15L back to be 1.3L short at the line. Up 300m in distance suits, better suited with weights and should be close here.
Mosheen (Jumped at $1.50 – given a very very poor ride and beaten on line.. got 2nd) was very impressive last week and the step up to 1400 will suit even more. The two horses who are threats in this race are Great Dame and Angel of Mercy. Both have good times over 1300 but look to be outclassed here.
We will be having a nice go at Mosheen as long as we get around $1.60+ for it.
Helmet (Horrible – unplaced) is head and shoulders better than all of the horses it is against here. There may be some interesting horses we can look at that ‘could’ test him.
Instrinction has 3 wins and 1 place from last 4 runs, two at larger odds than it is jumping today. It has some ok times but not sure it can keep up with Helmet pushes the pace like he has in the past.
Sabrage is the same as above.
That’s The One has been running well of late also but seems to be more suited to a slower time race.
We expect Helmet to close this one out easily
Get ready for it. We think Hay List (Placed – 2nd – advised PYOL Centrebet at $2.10 on twitter) COULD win. Hay List’s best time over 1000 is 56.3 while Black Cavairs best is 56.6. Am I saying that Hay List is going to romp in? No! I’m saying Hay List has the times on the board to press the tempo because he is facing BC back over 1000 and has the times to match.
At 10-1, we are happy to have a small wager on Hay List in this race. If we can get $1.35 or better for place, we will be also on that.
Agrippa (3rd) steps back down to a distance he is more suited to over 1400. The funny part is that he will be jumping from 51kg, having 59.5kg on it’s back losing to Over Quota in it’s last run by 0.3L and winning it’s two before that. Even better is the start from barrier 7. Everything looks suited for Agrippa!
Snow Cover (4th) is an interesting runner at $17. 2/2 from 4 first up. Won 2 of last 5 with valid runs in all of those 5. Will need to jump well from outside barrier and go forward to sit 4th/5th to be in this. Expecting those tactics.
Ignore the last start and 3rd start back of Right of Refusal – (Unplaced) in MUCH harder races than this and you see a really good horse form wise. Blocked for run 2 back 2L loss to Pinnacles (first up), it is huge overs here if trained on. Barrier 3 suits will get easy run whole race and swoop late.
The other three all to watch out for are Parthian, good run last week and ran well the 3 previous weeks. Just not sure if it can run fast enough here. Pago Rock won 4 in a row, big step up in class here, don’t expect it to get a soft lead out time. Finally, Can’t discount Tanby either who should try and go forwardish.
Live And Let Die (Won at $5.50) is our on top pick here. Had a huge end to it’s prep last start with 4 races at Flemington for 2 wins and the other two runs were 0.3L loss and 1.5L loss (huge in). Loves a good track as well.
There are quite a few others with good chances here. A very interesting runner is Testascana (Unplaced) who has won nearly 50% of it’s starts (19 starts in total) and placed in 74%. Currently sitting at $17.50 on the tote fixed and two back raced in Group 1 over 1400 at $11!!! Previous 4 races over 1600-1700 it won 3/4 and jumped at $3.50 or less! 4/4 from 10 on Good, 1/1 on track and 3/5 from 10 over distance. Even a 1/2 from 4 first up record. It is really in this.
Others to consider for your Quaddie. Spirited Eagle good first up record, previous 3 runs all been valid. Better Be Sure with some good times over 1400 and 3 wins from 4 on dead.. big step up in class but Nolen onboard is interesting. If Pago Rock wins today, Jugahlation could be value. Finally, Bigelow is all quality and good record over 1400.