Rosehill Race 6 – Kontiki Park $9
Caulfield Race 6 – The Soldier $22
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Now onto the good stuff
Kontiki Park and Kimberley Kid finished 1/2 last start in a race over 1400m.
Kontiki Park won and gains 3kg on Kimberley so we have it on top over Kimberley. We feel both of these are still very good value off their last runs in this race.
Back Kontiki Park 1 Unit E/W at $9. Back Kimberley Kid 0.5 Units E/W at $20
The main race of the day. We are looking at what we see as major value in this race. Mega Steel has placed in 4 of it’s five runs over this distance including 3 of it’s last 4 runs.
We think the weight differences in this race will positively affect Mega Steel in it’s role out the front preventing the swoopers from having such a dramatic effect. If you look at it’s last runs, it has been close to LuckyGray and Ranger in those runs.
Back Megasteel 0.25 Units E/W at $130
Hate these type of races with limited knowledge of the horses. Always go small unless you have the word from someone in the know.
I always like a Flying Spur horse and Bay Flyer has been entered into this one for it’s first race. D.Dunn onboard a concern for us but could be value. Heina won it’s trial over 900m by 3L which is impressive. Should run on well also.
Timely Truce and Jacaranda Avenue both in this due to last start 2nd placings but dislike their times.
Backing Heina 0.5 E/W at $14
If we were to base this race on times, Buzzing Along would come up with the win here. We really like it’s form and the form line speaks volumes. Should handle the extra 200M and will swoop late.
The other horse we like in this race is Lookater who we expect to try and lead the race. Barrier isn’t the best for this but should get over and lead it. A small improvement on it’s last run 4.3L win in a maiden gets it close here.
Backing Buzzing Along 1 unit E/W at $9 and Lookater 1 unit E/W at $20 (should be higher in the morning).
We have been waiting nearly a month for Pacino to get another run after he fell painfully short 4th 0.8L loss at Flemington last up. Was one of our best of that day and traded into $1.21 on betfair with 200m left.
You can think we are biased on this horse due to the above write up but it is one of our key blackbookers. Pacino comes in on a small weight and will run a good race for your money.
Backing Pacino 1.5 unit E/W at $8
Our Pride and Joy goes into this race as the short priced favourite. It deserves all the claims it is receiving but should it be this short? No way. Fine Calibre finished 1.5L behind last start and gains 2kg on it this run while Mayneda Strategy finished 2L behind and gains 3kg. It’s last two wins have been in 5 and 6 horse fields with previous 2 runs in 13 and 15 horse races both places.
Then you have to take into account the impressive start to finish win by Serene Tanie last up.. but this field may be too much for it. We are not discounting Maquina, if it runs we will be backing it in.. but it ran at MV tonight and didn’t run well (may have just been warming it up for Caulfield).. but we have the feeling it will be scratched
Back Fine Calibre 1 unit E/W at $20
Many will believe this race is a battle of 4 horses. One that is racing very well right now in Stratigraphy and three that should have trained on (the 3, 4 and 7).
While we don’t disagree with this thinking, the MAJOR value in this race is the number 12, I’m The Man. How can he lose with such a name? We want it to win so when it crosses the line we can shout ‘I’M THE MAN’. Ok back to being serious…
I’m The Man ran 1:11 flat on a dead track on it’s first run. A very impressive time. Now take into account the 54kg starting weight (down 2.5k) and then a further 3kg claim, this horse is all over the race. Sure it’s in stronger class, but all the information suggests it will run very well.
Back I’m The Man 1 unit E/W at $45 (should be higher tomorrow). Back Infinite Energy 0.3 units to win at $4 (Saver bet).
There are quite a few good chances in this LARGE field. If Nicholls Court runs, we are very keen on it but at this stage doesn’t look a hope.
Cellarmaster is a big spec for us in this race. A very inconsistant horse, it is stepping WAY back in class here and down to a very manageable weight. Over this distance from 7 starts it has won 2 and placed in 4.
The Soldier is a horse from the north of Australia who raced very well up in Darwin and ran a good 2nd to a handy horse called Definitely Ready last up. Massively down in weight, this looks suited and the barrier 5 draw makes it even more perfect.
Finally, you can’t look past the other two in this race in General Truce and Miss Octopussy, both have great chances and should be there at the end.
Back The Solder 1.5 Units E/W at $22. Back Cellarmaster 0.75 Units E/W at $44
Another hard race to choose a winner in. Very open. We have narrowed it down to three horses.
Paparazzi has trained on well and ran very well two back at Bendigo. Even though she finished 8th (2.8L) last up, it can be forgiven. The only problem this time up is the barrier. Don’t overlook but we can’t have it ontop.
Fabulist and Avionics are the two we have on top here. Fabulist has been running very well over it’s last three starts this prep. Having won 5 from 9 over this distance, Fabulist goes in very well. Only slight concern is a 0 wins 1 place from 4 starts at Caulfield.
Avionics is down in class and down 1.5kg. A consistant horse, hasn’t finished worse than 5th in it’s last two preps (9 runs) and will be there at the end.
Back Fabulist 1 Unit E/W at $9.40. Back Avionics 1 Unit E/W at $7.40. Back Paparazzi Dreamer 0.2 Units to win at $20.
Another open race. We like three horses in this race also.
Any form around Facile Tigre has been golden recently. Shadowfax ran a great race behind Facile Tigre last up and should only go on and improve. Has 2 wins 2 places from 5 starts on this track. Won on this track over distance 2nd up last prep by 5L.
Forgive Dash For Viz for the last up run where it didn’t hnadle the ground. You are now getting far better odds also due to the loss.
The other horse with a good chance is Snow Cover. Has some good form behind Under The Eifeel and ran well last up finishing well. Weighted to be in it.
Back Shadowfax 1 unit E/W at $5.60. Back Dash For Viz 1 Unit E/W at $15. Back Snow Cover 0.2 Units to win at $9.
Majority of prices quoted are from Betfair the night before.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.