The Melbourne Cup is Australia’s premier horse race over 3200m with a purse of $6,000,000 on offer. First run in 1861 and won by Archer, the shortest price winner was Phar Lap at the odds of $1.73 in 1930. Phar Lap wasn’t able to back-up that performance the following year after being given the greatest weight every carried in the race of 68kg. Many have said that this year’s Melbourne Cup is one of the worst in recent memory, but I think they are mistaken. Not only are there several Australian based chances, but the internationals raiders are top class.
Weather
Probably the most important factor for any race. Sunday evening the track is rated a Dead 4 and there is an early shower or two expected for Monday. Other than that, nothing else. Chances are they will water the track Monday evening and we can expect a Dead 4 track with an upgrade around Race 5-6 to Good 3.
Speedmaps
The most important tool for any race is understanding where each horse is expected to be during the run of the race and on previous data, determining how the race will be run by those out the front. The introduction of so many international raiders and changing strategies for the Melbourne Cup make this race VERY hard to map. No single speedmap produced will ever be 100% accurate for this race, all you can do is map the horses where you expect them to go. Below I have given two ‘rough’ suggestions on how I see the race mapping out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a three-wide line with this many runners and so many expected to bunch mid to late field.
Click on the Speedmap photo below to see a higher resolution map.
Melbourne Cup 2013
1. Dunaden 58.5kg – Barrier 1
Odds: $44
2011 winner of this race in a photo with Red Cadeaux. Came back for another try last year and took out the Caulfield Cup which was ran off a hot tempo and in this race last year copped a few checks in the run and ran on ok without doing too much at top weight of 59kg. Since then ran 5th in the Hong Kong Vase, 4th in Meydan, 3rd in Longchamp, 2nd at Epsom, 2nd in Saint-cloud and then 8th last start in Longchamp. Looking at the form, you just discount the previous two runs on slow (even though the 2nd to Novellist is a solid form race). His 2nd behind St Nicholas Abbey and infront of Joshua tree in the Coronation Cup is solid enough form. Many are suggesting other internationals have strong hopes from beating home Joshua Tree this prep. Barrier 1 isn’t the best when you consider he will be wanting to go back, but it could mean they can push a little hard early to sit closer to midfield than the rear. He never runs a bad race and is a chance once again.
2. Green Moon 57.5kg – Barrier 10
Odds: $46
Won the race last year after a fairly disappointing, but still bold run in the Cox Plate off 59kg which he just doesn’t handle. His form that prep had been a very solid 5th in the Memsie, 2nd by a nose in the Feehan, 3-wide most the way win in the Turnbull and then the Cox Plate fail before winning with class. He had a spell for 109 days and ran 4th in the Futurity and 4th in the Australian Cup (won by Super Cool). Then this prep he ran 5th in the Memsie, 9th in the Underwood and 9th in the Cox Plate where he was ‘ok’. Hasn’t won since this race last year which is a massive concern, but this is his main event. I wouldn’t fully discount him, but he certainly isn’t going as well this prep as he was last year. Barrier suits well and gives options.
3. Red Cadeaux 56.5kg – Barrier 23
Odds: $75
A whisker 2nd to Dunaden in 2011 and then last year ran on well enough 8th. Went onto win the Hong Kong Vase, run 2nd in the World Cup in Dubai and then hasn’t won since. So, last win was December 2012! Has run some ‘solid’ races since with a 2nd to Royal Empire in the Geoffrey Freer but was beaten a full 11 lengths last start in the St Leger by Voleuse De Coerurs. Very poor barrier as well. Doesn’t look the goods this year on current form.
4. Sea Moon 56.5kg – Barrier 7
Odds: $16.5
Ran 3rd in the 2011 St Leger to Masked Marvel and Brown Panther. In 2012 beat Dandino in the Tapster, Dunaden and Red Cadeaux in the Hardwicke and then hasn’t won since. Had close to a 300 day break between runs before resuming in the Makybe Diva and finding nothing. Next start in the Underwood was too far back but was an unlucky protest 2nd to Araldo in the Bart Cummings. Won the Herbert Power next start, but what did he beat home? Oasis Bloom was nominated for this but is no Melbourne Cup Horse. Has everything to prove today. Barrier gives them the option to push further forward like they did last start, but you would suggest they sit midfield. Continues to improve on runs but has to find several more lengths today to win at the weights.
5. Brown Panther 55kg – Barrier 6
Odds: $20
Won two from three runs this prep. The first was over 2400m in the Castle Stakes by 3.5L but didn’t really ‘beat much’. Next start in the Goodwood Cup was ridden out the front and the leader around the final turn pushed the leaders a good 3-4 lengths ahead of the field behind them which proved tactically too hard to be run down. Brown Panther sat behind the leader on the straight until about the final 400m when got out and just extended to win by 3.5L off 61kg. Alzeemah was 2nd and Mount Athos was running on but run ended at the 200m mark. I think the tactics won it, not the pure ability of the horse.. but his final 100m was still very strong as well. In a race with not many natural front field runners, Brown Panther will be going forward from barrier 6 and will get the perfect position in running. Is a massive chance.
6. Fiorente 55kg – Barrier 5
Odds: $8.4
Ran 2nd to Jet Away in 2012 at Goodwood and then 6th behind Sea Moon, Dunaden and Red Cad in the Hardwicke before beating the Goldsmiths beating Joshua tree and Red Cad. Failed to run well enough in the Prix Foy. 51 Days off and then flew over for the Melbourne Cup and flew home for 2nd after settling 8th in running. Ran 5 times since over here with a very strong 3rd behing All Too hard in the All Aged, strong enough 6th first up in the Memsie, win in the Feehan not beating much and then ran home very well in the Turnbull. Pushed forward last start in the Cox Plate after sitting 3-wide for a long time and then slotting in. Down to 55kg today which seems very fair, but most importantly, barrier 5. Damien Oliver gets the ride which is a BIG bonus. Should have no excuses today.
7. Foreteller 55kg – Barrier 15
Odds: $30
Had my eye on this horse all Spring with a view that he would run in the Melbourne Cup. $300s was available a month ago and you are getting 10X less today. His runs early in the year were eye-catching. None more so than the Ranvet where he beat Fiveandahalfstar off 59kg. He didn’t progress as much as expected after that with 2nds in the Hollindale and Doomben Cup. This prep he ran on very well in the Warwick Stakes first up before winning the Makybe Diva out-staying Puissance De Lune after tracking him into the race off equal weights. Two runs back in the Caulfield Stakes he ran on very well behind Atlantic Jewel (even though he was 4L off) and backed up that strong form in the Cox Plate flashing late to lose by 1.2L. Down to 55kg today which he hasn’t seen in a long time. The lower weight could be the key. Barrier 15 doesn’t hurt too much as you can expect him to fall to the back. Newitt may even jump away slowly on purpose to shoot over to the fence so that he isn’t stuck directly last. Have to come from a long way back but should be good enough.
8. Dandino 54.5kg – Barrier 4
Odds: $12.5
International runner who never puts in a bad race. Since his 2nd to My Quest For Peace in the Glorious Stakes in 2012, he went onto win the September, run 2nd to Joshua tree in the Interational, 7th to Red Cad in the Hong Kong Vase, 2nd to Universal in the Jockey club, 2nd to Thomas Chippendale in the Hardwicke and then won the US St Leger. Put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup from the back. Comes into the race actually better weighted. Barrier 4 today is perfect and you would expect they may attempt to sit mid-field if possible. Huge chance.
9. Ethiopia 54.5kg – Barrier 14
Odds: $85
Ran last in this race last year (lame in hind leg). Ran 5th in the Makybe Diva and then next few runs hasn’t really shown anything. Last start sat back in the Lexus and only ran on fairly. Not very well weighted today and doesn’t look a chance to win at all.
10. Fawkner 54.5kg – Barrier 8
Odds: $19.5
Very progressive type over his last two preps. Last prep won the Sofitel, Headquarters, TAB.com.au at Flemington and then a nose second to Happy Trails in the Emirates. Geez that looks a strong result now doesn’t it? Well it worked out this year. Had a 130 day spell and ran 3rd to Black Caviar in the William Reid over 1200m. 169 day spell again and then resumed in the Tramway over 1400m which was run at a crazy speed and he ran on well. Next start in the George Main sat more forward and boxed on ok but didn’t impress to be honest. The Turnbull was a different story. His sectionals were very very very strong and was somewhat unlucky to be passed by Happy Trails and nosed out by PDL for 2nd. That run was one of the main reasons he was our top pick in the Caulfield Cup. The progression was there and he was set to peak. He got a dream ride and you know what happened, he won the Caulfield Cup very well from a position in run slightly further back than expected. Down 0.5kg today and up to 3200m. He ran out the 2400m fine so the 3200m will be no issue. There isn’t as much early speed in this race as the Caulfield Cup and the barrier 8 is perfect. He speedmaps REALLY well today and as long as gets clear running is EVERY chance to run the cups double.
11. Mourayan 54.5kg – Barrier 19
Odds: $180
The longest odds runner in the race. Last prep ran 4th in the Chairmans and then won the Sydney Cup over 3200m beating some only fair horses home. This prep ran 7th, 8th and then 7th in the Mackinnon. Not good enough for this.
12. Seville 54.5kg – Barrier 9
Odds: $21
Last prep ran close 5th in the Naturalism and then 2nd to Green Moon in the Turnbull before getting injured and ending what looked a promising spring. 280ish days off and then returned with three very average runs in the Memsie, Feehan and Naturalism positioning out the back in the first two and then midfield in the next. Two back in The Metrop was peaking and sat 4th in running and snuck a win over Julienas and Sneak a Peek. Both these two horses have disappointed heavily since. Ran in the Cox Plate and finished 7th. Better suited over further it seems but is he good enough to win this? I’d suggest poorly weighted against others here today. Can position forward.
13. Super Cool 54.5kg – Barrier 13
Odds: $60
Two preps back won the MV Vase beating It’s a Dundeel and then ran a close 2nd in the Vic Derby behind Fiveandahalfstar. Last prep ran a solid 3rd in the Autumn Stakes, then got a win over Fiveandahalfstar in the Autumn Classic before winning the Australian Cup. Returned well this prep running 3rd in the Memsie and 4th in the Feehan but since has disappointed. The run in the Turnbull was very poor and then was simply not good enough in the Caulfield Stakes and completely out-staged by Foreteller as well. Last start was game enough out the front in the Cox Plate off 58kg but lacked any sprint. Could be looking for the extra distance and a sit instead of leading.. but is he good enough to not find a few too good? I don’t think so.
14. Masked Marvel 54kg – Barrier 2
Odds: $36
Very strong form back in 2011 but since then hasn’t actually shown much to speak of. Sure, there was a 3rd behind Red Cad and St Nic Abbey last year, but followed that up by 9th, 4th and 8th. Came to Australia and failed first up, ran on ok 2nd up to Moriarty and then 3rd up had every chance and just couldn’t beat Masked Marvel. Run in the Cox Plate was poor at best. Will certainly appreciate the extra distance and has been set to win this race, but is he going well enough to win? I took some of the early $75s knowing he was automatically into the race, but I’m even thinking of laying these off at the $36 odds. His true price is closer to what I got and even through drew barrier 2, they will sit back I don’t give him much hope of being able to outsprint every runner in this race.
15. Mount Athos 54kg – Barrier 22
Odds: $11
Flashed home last year in this race to finish 5th after getting into trouble in running before the turn. After that win went to Tokyo and failed heavily. Spelled and then first up won a very poorly rated race the Ormonde beating Mad Moose by 9 lengths. Went onto the Hardwicke where he had every chance and just wasn’t going well enough (beaten 2.8L by Dandino that day). Went around again in the Goodwood Cup and could only manage 8th. Last start ran a close 2nd to Harris Tweet in the March Stakes. Hasn’t run since (71 days off) but has continued to train on. He hasn’t won any of his last 3 runs coming into this. Compare that to last year when he had won his previous 3 races including a win over Brown Panther… suggests he isn’t as good as he was last year. Adding to the troubles, they drew barrier 22 which means they will struggle to get a solid enough mid-field position and could get caught 3-wide. A lesser chance for mine and the price is heavily unders.
16. Royal Empire 54kg – Barrier 11
Odds: $22
Spent last prep over in Meydan where won a race and ran 2nd in two others. Better results were on dirt rather than turf. Shipped over to UK and Won a fairly easy 2000m race first up and then beat home Red Cad and Lost in the moment 2nd up over 2700m. Ran 2nd in final two runs of this prep by 0.2L and 2.5L over 2400m at Kempton and Ascot. The form lines are solid enough, but were those wins impressive enough to beat this star studded line-up off 54kg? The fact the horse has never run 3200m is a big issue considering how many race options there are for distance over in the UK. Looks a good horse but not winner material.
17. Voleuse De Coeurs 54kg – Barrier 21
Odds: $17
I can’t talk highly enough about her win in the Irish St Leger. The race was run slowly than her last start 2nd to Royal Diamond in the St Leger Trial and she positioned on the race worse than midfield. At about the 1000m mark, horses started to make their runs and she came off the rail. They don’t let the horses fully go until about the 600m mark though over there with whipping etc. From the 800 to 600 she swallow them all up and sprinted clear passing the 400m mark where she just kept extending and won by 7 lengths pulled up in the final 50m. She beat home Azheemah & Saddler’s Rock who are both quality horses and great form lines, but more importantly, Red Cadaeux was about 11 lengths back with Royal Diamond. She was sold for close to 2 million and shipped over here for the cup. A first up runner is never the best thing in the Melbourne Cup and the barrier 21 certainly makes it interesting.. but she is going back anyway and will settle in the back QTR of the field. On raw ability from last run, she is the ‘form’ horse in the race. That run was 50 days ago.
18. Hawkspur 53.5kg – Barrier 18
Odds: $18.5
Once Melbourne Cup favourite, Hawkspur came crashing back down to reality running 5th in the Turnbull in an eye-catching run where he didn’t have much luck and then backing it up from the back in the Caulfield Cup last start. Barrier 18 is a massive disadvantage today and the trainer had advised that they will attempt to ride Hawkspur in a more forward manner (top 6) to give him every chance. This also means there is every chance he will get caught three-wide. I’m not a fan of such a drastic tactic change in a big race from an outside barrier, but off 53.5kg, he could be good enough with a bit of luck. I wrote it in the Caulfield Cup preview, he hasn’t beaten anything and has everything to still prove.
19. Simenon 53.5kg – Barrier 12
Odds: $21
A distance runner, his best runs have come at distances above 3000m. In 2012 he took out the 4350m Queen Alexandra from Shahwardi. They even gave him a go at hurdling that year but didn’t have much success. Back to running in 2013 where he ran 4th in the Chester Cup over 3700m and a close 2nd to Estimate in the Gold Cup at Ascot. Next start when back down to 3300m in the Lonsdale Cup and was beaten 0.2L by Ahzeemah who is one of the horses to base form off of in the UK. First up was very brave running on well in the Herbert Power but is certainly wanting further. Barrier 12 will see him position very well in running a little further back than midfield. Stays on for days.
20. Ibicenco 53kg – Barrier 17
Odds: $120
Lucky to get a run today after what many call a bit of a stuff up by the handicapper. Handed a 1kg penalty for winning a Heavy track Geelong Cup which rated to be one of the worst in the last decade. Last year won the Sandown Cup over 3200m beating Reuben Percival and Unusual Suspect. Last prep didn’t finish better than 4th while won first up this prep over 1700m beating Mr O’Ceirin and Pakal. Ran on ok next start and was a forgive run in The Metrop. Just not up to this class of race, but could surprise and run home for a top 10 finish.. but from barrier 17, limited tactic options. Can’t see this horse winning, or placing.
21. Verema 53kg – Barrier 3
Odds: $14
Last start won the Kergorlay beating Joshua Tree and Dance Moves by 0.5L on a Slow track. This is the race Jukebox Jury won before coming here in 2011 and failed. Want to know why? We don’t run races like they do in France. They let horses lead with no issues. They don’t push pace and they have different tempos. Verema’s run did certainly have merit and received a perfect ride with cover until the final 400m when others were facing the breeze into the straight and down it. The previous win was in the Prix De Nieuil beating only a fair field of runners while previous form was 3rd at Meydan in the Dubai Gold Cup to Cav Man & Ahzeemah, 2nd to Last train in the Prix Barbeville and 5th in the Prix Vigier. Will be suited by the ground and from barrier 3 will position handy enough in midfield. The key is the 53kg for this runner. Give her 56kg and I would give her minimal chance, but from the draw and with such a low weight, she does have higher claims than a few of the other international runners.
22. Dear Demi 51kg – Barrier 16
Odds: $26
Chris Munce gets the ride again after going close to running down Side Glance in a slowly run Mackinnon last start. Previous run went very close ridden for luck in the Caulfield Cup off 53kg. Previous two runs were solid also in the Turnbull and 0.85L off Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood. Will be better for the extra distance today and off 51kg, you know she is weighted well enough to go close. Barrier 16 was an unlucky draw. If she drew barrier 1-6 then you could really see her getting midfield and being ridden for luck. Instead, tactics are limited a fair bit today. Suggest she goes back and gets ridden for luck again. Need all of it.
23. Tres Blue 51kg – Barrier 20
Odds: $24
Not the most talented horse in the race, but when you have 51kg, you don’t have to be. Progressive type who has been running in strong fields all his life. Before heading over to Australia he had 7 runs in total with a win over 2400m on a Slow track in Lyon, 3rd in Chantilly, 2nd in the Germany Derby by 0.75L, a 1st by 0.8L in the Prix De Reux and then a 1st in the Prix Deauville by 0.2L. The horse who ran 2nd in the Prix Deauville ran a clear 5th in the Arc which is decent enough form lines. The horse has drawn an awkward barrier 20, but if the last few runs over in France were anything to go by, they will be looking to get him into a forward position from outwide. If he drew an inside barrier, I would have him close to a high chance of winning, but due to the early pace that will be needed to get a strong enough position, he isn’t one of the toppies in my book.. but certainly dosn’t discount him.
24. Ruscello 50kg – Barrier 24
Odds: $65
A horse who showed a large amount of upside over in the UK and was shipped out here. Didn’t win his previous 6 races but had always gone close. Ran 2nd first up just missing out on the win over 2000m and then lead from start to finish in the Lexus to get a run today. Comes into this with no weight and looks the leader on the Speedmap. Will be brave but I just can’t see him going close.
The Key Chances
In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of five categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances. After all, if a $100-1 runner was in the medium chance pile, that would represent value.
High Chance
Voleuse De Coeurs
Fawkner
Dandino
Fiorente
Brown Panther
Medium Chance
Dunaden
Foreteller
Hawkspur
Verema
Simenon
Tres Blue
Low Chance
Green Moon
Sea Moon
Mount Athos
Dear Demi
Royal Empire
Minimal Chance
Red Cadeaux
Seville
Super Cool
Masked Marvel
No Chance
Ethiopia
Mourayan
Ibicenco
Ruscello
Melbourne Cup 2013 Tips
Top Three
1. Voleuse De Coeurs
Her Irish St Leger win was super. She will be getting back in the run and will be running on from the 1000m. Expect her to be within striking distance coming around the turn and if produces a run similar to last start hitting the front around the distance marker.
2. Brown Panther
Not the best horse in the race, but has enough upside and staying power from a VERY favourable barrier to take a forward position. If the speed doesn’t get put on then he is there or there abouts. Won’t have to do much work, will be getting covered up for a run and saving ground.
3. Fawkner
His run in the Caulfield Cup was eye-catching. Even if Dandino had another 100m, I would put money on the fact that Dandino wouldn’t have got past Fawkner. Fawkner is absolutely flying and is the one to beat of the locals.
So there you have it. Our top three chances in the race in order. As you will note, there are eleven horses we feel have a real chance in the race.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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