Welcome to The Profits form guide for Mornington Cup Day on 24 March 2018.
Action returns to Mornington for the cup with the rail in the true position. 21’c to 24’c is forecast for the day with 5-15mm of potential rain to hit the track which could get us to a Good 4 surface to Soft 5. It will certainly be interesting to see if any trends develop on this track. Good luck and happy punting
Mornington Race 1 – 1000m – Peninsula Essence Handicap – BM-78
1. Dance with Fontein: Strong win first up at Mornington. Last start down the straight pulled throughout and not in best of best ground. Stays at 1000m and closer to home. Barrier awkward and will get back in run.
2. Sir Donald: Barrier blanket on. Winkers off. Not much to find from the lead in barrier trial. Last prep measured up to Open class up at Doomben. Best run ever needed to measure up here.
3. Gibbon: Short turn-around off a disappointing 8th at Moonee Valley last week. Not exactly suited by speed throughout, but even so, went backwards from the previous run which would have the horse well in here. Forgive the last run.
4. Matty: Strong first up run 2nd to Sprightly lass at Moonee Valley. Stays at similar class here and has to be respected on best form. Maps well.
5. Typhoon Jolie: First up and back to 1000m. Best seen in previews preps over 1400m but does go fine at sprint distances. May just be short of the horses best here.
6. Rockets Red Glare: Cross-over nose band on. Ear muffs on. Not suited at all last start by tempo. Best in the past good enough to run well here.
7. Explicitly: Nice enough maiden win start of prep. Well beaten in BM-58 last start.
Very High Chance: Gibbon
High Chance: Matty, Dance With Fontein
Medium Chance: Sir Donald, Rockets Red Glare
Low Chance: Typhoon Jolie
Very Low Chance: Explicitly
Expected Speed: Typhoon Jolie should set the tempo here with Benchmark to 3L above benchmark set throughout.
Comments: Gibbon will go back from the from the barrier and rocketing home over the top late with the right pace on out the front. Matty will hit the front at the 200m and be hard to run down. Dance With Fontein will be making the run with Gibbon and is hoping for a stronger tempo than expected.
Mornington Race 2 – 2000m – No Fuss Event Hire Handicap – BM-90
1. Angelology: Big jump in class here. Won a slowly run 2000m race last start. Unknown how this horse is actually going but has to be considered a chance at least?
2. Velox: Not overly suited behind Angelology last start when they crawled along. Horse is best when they go strongly. Ignore previous runs horse should be suited – but query on speed in race.
3. Shoreham: First up after a good last prep including a 1700m win in city in similar class. 2400m back to 2000m. Wants a hard tough race.
4. Ancient King: Looking for the jumps. Up to this grade again and hasn’t won outside of hurdles in a long time.
5. Brimham Rocks: Gelded. Lugging bit on. Handles all surface conditions. 107 Timeform rating so very well rated in this race. Best runs in past 2400m+ but no issues with the 2000m here. This is a horse that has a turn of foot and is a tryer.
6. Charlevoix: Looked good first up but showed little. Up to 2000m better suited than last start but really wants further to find best.
7. Ashlee Marie: Natural leader. Last two starts led them all around at a crawl and found one too good on both occasions. Last win did similar crawl and run home late. Previous win though did go fast early and still win.
Very High Chance: Brimham Rocks
High Chance: Shoreham, Ashlee Marie
Medium Chance: Charlevoix
Low Chance: Velox, Angelology
Very Low Chance: Ancient King
Expected Speed: Huge query over the speed in this race. Ashlee Marie is expected to lead them around but has crawled on speed last two starts. Brimham Rocks has the ability to lead and could push them on harder than Ashlee Marie wants. Anywhere from 5L below to 5L above benchmark.
Comments: Some really average type sin this race. Ashlee Marie will be given every chance out front and has to be considered. Shoreham will be the overs in the race and if speed is on, will be hard to beat. Brimham Rocks is the X factor who has shown a turn of foot over in the UK and looks the type to be suited here. Charlevoix is a hard horse to get rated correctly but has to be considered a chance.
Mornington Race 3 – 1500m – Martin Collins FIBRETRACK Sires – 2YO
1. Louie the Legend: Only a fair win last start at Pakenham beating some average types. Previous start not great… Clearly won a race but is he really up to this? Maps well
2. Muswellbrook: 2nd up. Get back run on type who didn’t impress too much at Ballarat but did show some potential on how the horse hit the line. If they run this genuinely could be suited.
3. A Fighting Fury: Winkers on. Another that got back and ran on just ok in that Ballarat race behind Sunset Watch. Gear change important. Will want speed on.
4. One Belt One Road: Trialed okay enough and this horse seems to always find one going towards the 2000m distances.
5. Wild Vitality: Tongue control bit first time. Horrible first up when they crawled and horse didn’t finish off.
6. Gheedaa: Blinkers off Winkers on. Run some strong races this prep. Not suited by tempo last start at Pakenham when beaten a short priced favourite. Big chance here.
7. Peaceful Solution: Only fair first up off a slow tempo. No surprise if improves here.
Very High Chance: Gheedaa
High Chance: Muswellbrook, Louie the Legend, A Fighting Fury
Medium Chance: One Belt One Road
Low Chance: Peaceful Solution
Very Low Chance: Wild Vitality
Expected Speed: No natural speed horse in the race could see Gheedaa forced to push the speed if Wild Vitality or the first starter doesn’t. We could have a race run 10L below benchmark early up to 5L above early. Hard to predict.
Comments: On paper, Gheedaa is the only horse that has actually run time yet, but the reality is there are just so many unanswered questions about many runners here. Doesn’t look like a race you can get overly involved in.
Mornington Race 4 – 1200m – Cleanaway Handicap – BM-78
1. Give Us a Go: Disappointing run first up but wasn’t suited at the distance and with the tempo. Can improve significantly here.
2. Jalan Jalan: Hasn’t won in a very long time. Last prep last two runs were horrible – bled. Best in past can measure up and run well back in this grade…. but hard horse to trust. Did trial ok.
3. Costa Bomb: First up Weir runner with Brad on. Best run in past was in easier grade than this at Sandown when winning. Best asset is ability to close off. Will get back.
4. Chatuchak: Two runs this prep. First up wasn’t suited by very slow tempo from out the back and then last start had a more suited run but couldn’t get close to them. Similar grade of race here and has to find best form from the past to measure up.
5. Freehearted: Gone through the grades this prep and just missed last start from on speed at Moonee Valley claimed late. Went backwards in terms of the run delivered and will have improved again fitness wise. Awkward barrier to get a spot.
6. Foreign Affair: Winkers on. Three runs this prep and not gone close on any occasion. Stays at distance.
7. Jacqui’s Joy: Blinkers on. Winkers off. Cross over nose band on. Tongue Tie off. Trialed on lead in but didn’t show too much. Best runs in past over further. Goes ok at this distance but not super.
8. So Far Sokool: Had a small spell but has a load of work still in the legs. Ran a close 2nd last prep over 1400m in Listed grade. Did win as a 2YO over 1200m. Will appreciate any rain on the day.
9. She’s Positive: Hasn’t shown the form required to win here in the past two preps. Three preps back beaten 2.7L over 1100m in Group 3 class by I Am A Star. Looks a horse that is just wanting speed on and hasn’t found it.
10. Esposito Gold: Maiden winner last prep but didn’t record any time and run over 1200m didn’t show a great deal. Trial winner but even so this is a big ask.
11. Niamh Chinn Oir: Strong second last start at Moonee Valley and gets well in at weights again here. Likes speed on and finishes off strongly.
Very High Chance: Niamh Chinn Oir, So Far Sokool
High Chance: She’s Positive, Freehearted, Jalan Jalan
Medium Chance: Costa Bomb, Jacqui’s Joy, Give Us a Go,
Low Chance: Foreign Affiar, Chatuchak
Very Low Chance: Esposito Gold
Expected Speed: 5L below benchmark to 2L above benchmark early
Comments: This is a race void of superior closing speed horses so if they don’t force the pace on speed iwth Niamh Chinn Oir and Esposito Gold leading then this could really be run in a crawl for most of it suiting the low weight front runners like Niamh Chinn Oir. So Far Sokool is clearly the best horse in the race and maps to have every chance, but will want a benchmark or above speed run to get past them and a bit of rain on the day. Jalan Jalan is the only surprise horse that could push the tempo but I’m not convinced after a bleeding attack they would try that?
Mornington Race 5 – 1200m – United Petroleum Handicap – BM-78
1. Rich Luck: Always been a nice type that measures up to this grade of race and should be pushing to go beyond. First up last prep won well in this grade. Consistent horse and gfoes well first up. Maps midfield at worst.
2. Petite’s Reward: Good barrier and maps to go forward. Led them around at a strong tempo last start and kept on well. May be at absolute top today. If jumps well go well here.
3. Roman Fizz: Not overly suited last start when they didn’t go fast enough for the horse. Up in distance and slightly down in class. Go well with expected speed.
4. My Paisann: Big open class 3YO win over 1400m last prep at Caulfield. Has produced very good runs in the past. Best suited when speed is on.
5. Bob of the Head: Ran nicely last start when suited by a slow pace from on speed but couldn’t get past a few. Back to a harder run race and will go well here also. Awkward mapping.
6. Runsati: Slow out last start. Huge disappointment failing to finish off. Previous start wasn’t super either. Needs to improve significantly.
7. Brahmos: Strong win last start at Pakenham when suited on speed off a slow tempo. Has run time in the past also… hardest ask again here.
8. Toorak Cowboy: Two slowly run races on the lead in. Finished off solidly both times. Will get a differently run race here.
9. Search Squad: Disappointing run two back at Sale and then last start finished off as expected off a slowly run tempo out front. Much harder up to this grade but in past has run well enough off expected tempo.
10. Tigger: Not suited last start at Pakenham with speed out of the race. Never run a time to suggest a win here.
11. Fully Maxed: Well presented type that won ok three back at Sale and then ran another good behind Holbien in what may have been better class than this. Not suited last start by the slow tempo? Low weight here.
12. Lord Mornington: Lugging bit off. Nortin bit on. Push forward leading type expect to sit outside leader. Has some ability but never run the times needed to win this.
Very High Chance: Petite’s Reward
High Chance: My Paisann, Rich Luck
Medium Chance: Roman Fizz, Bob of the Head, Fully Maxed
Low Chance: Brahmos, Toorak Cowboy, Search Squad, Runsati
Very Low Chance: Tigger, Lord Mornington
Expected Speed: Petite’s Reward should lead them around here if the horse jumps better and ensure a genuine tempo around 3-4L above benchmark. If Lord Mornington leads expect Benchmark to 3L above.
Comments: This is a race where I feel the markets have a few runners wrong and could end up with egg on my face or looking like a genius. Brahmos has been put up favourite and it’s a horse I genuinely want to take on at the price. The same can be said for 4th favourite Tigger. Petite’s Reward looks amazing value coming into the race off the best strongly run race sectionals of any runner while Rich Luck looks a main danger along with My Paisann who could swoop over the top of all these.
Mornington Race 6 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Hareeba Stakes – Listed
1. First Among Equals: Two runs in Melbourne last prep but never settled in. Best runs in past saw the horse run 4th in a Group 1. Weir knows.
2. Stellar Collision: Beaten last start in listed grade at Morphetville on the line in a right photo and they gaped the rest. Times were solid and horse is flying right now.
3. I’m Wesley: Lugging bit on. Got away with a slow tempo out front down the straight and ran a close 2nd. Won’t get it that way here today and will have to be at best to measure up. Clearly going well enough on current and past form.
4. Prussian Vixen: Too strong a tempo set last start in the Oakleigh Plate and horse was never suited. Back in class and less speed expected. If finishes off like two back run will be hard to get past.
5. Duke of Brunswick: First up. Ran a close 2nd to Ability first up last prep at Flemington running home 21.68. Didn’t win after that. Has to be considered even from position back in run.
6. Husson Eagle: Nice enough trial between runs. Flew home behind Secret Agenda last start and will be at complete top today. Jockey big query along with spot in running.
7. Suspense: First up for Snowden stable. At right distance here and won a Open class race at MV last prep beating Hellova Street. Best seen later into preps.
8. Lucky Liberty: Group 1 back to listed grade. Ran strong times two back at Flemington off a slow tempo for 2nd and was outclassed behind Redkirk Warrior but not disgraced beaten 4L. Get back run on type.
9. Schism: Blinkers off. First up today. Last prep didn’t win until got to 1400m and found very best.
10. Top Me Up: First up off a long spell – no injury issues. Go forward type clearly best runs in past over 1300-1400m. That being said, has recorded times more than good enough to roll forward and be hard to run down out front. Key to this horse is not being pressured.
11. Leodoro: Won a country open grade race after a good 3rd at Flemington. Gear a big issue for mine to be confident here and gets well back in run.
Very High Chance: None
High Chance: Top Me Up, First Among Equals, Husson Eagle
Medium Chance: I’m Wesley, Lucky Liberty, Stellar Collision, Duke of Brunswick
Low Chance: Prussian Vixen
Very Low Chance: Schism, Leodoro, Suspense
Expected Speed: 2L above benchmark to 5L above benchmark early.
Comments: Wide open race with very few runners lacking in a chance in the race. From on speed, Top Me Up could be allowed to roll, set tempo and be hard to get past late. First Among Equals maps to get first crack at them from the group of swoopers while Husson Eagle has the elite finishing power to come over the top off a strongly run tempo.
Mornington Race 7 – 2400m – Ladbrokes Mornington Cup – Listed
1. Lord Fandango: Strong 2.4L 7th in the Australian Cup from off the speed. Suited by a strong tempo and finished off much better than the previous start. Maps for an ideal spot better than midfield today and could just be too good for them if improved again. Looks a goal race?
3. Cismontane: Ran around too slow first up on speed when still slightly fat. Will have improved with a trial over hurdles in between. Group 3 winner in the past over 2500m.
4. Gallic Chieftain: Stony Creek Cup winner last start. Not suited two runs back off the slow tempo. Looking for a true staying test.
5. Clondaw Warrior: Hurdler? Surely not?
6. Bondeiger: Won three in a row amazingly this prep and coming off a Group 3 win will like the distance increase. Has to be respected on current form.
7. Self Sense: Two trials leading into this and has been tested over the hurdles in both over distance. Been running poorly so surprised if wins this but look for much better over hurdles.
8. Golden Mane: Horse is flying right now. Get back run on type who maps nicely enough for a midfield spot. Big chance.
9. Oncidium Ruler: Been up a long time and short turn around off a disappointing run off a slow tempo at Yarra Valley. Could go ok.
10. Fastnet Dragon: Strong run 2nd to Bondeiger in the Launceston Cup. Needs to improve for this.
11. Kings Will Dream: Proved he can do it at both ends last start at Flemington and looks the ideal type to have a throw at the stumps. Big ask though here if tempo is on to get the 2400m. They keep testing and he keeps getting results.
12. Harrison: Was just there for the run first up and still had a lot more to come from the yard. 2400m looks even short of his absolute best, but he did run well over 2400m at Ascot and Newmarket in the past. Likely leader and expected to make this a genuine staying test.
13. Cry If I Want To: Well beaten last start and on short turn around. Back up in distance. Was no match for Aloft off the slow tempo two back. Never run the times needed.
14. Khartoum: Push forward type. Likes a strong tempo being set. Going ok but not up to this.
Very High Chance: Cismontane, Harrison
High Chance: Kings Will Dream
Medium Chance: Gallic Chieftain, Bondeiger, Golden Mane
Low Chance: Fastnet Dargon, Oncidium Ruler
Very Low Chance: Clondaw Warrior, Self Sense, Cry If I Want To, Khartoum
Expected Speed: 3L Above Benchmark to 10L above Benchmark
Comments: Expecting Harrison to set a solid clip out front and to make this a true staying test like the races he has run well in back home – his price is well over the correct odds. Cismontane will be on speed and enjoys a genuine tempo and looks a big chance. Kings Will Dream has to go to another level up in distance and there are queries at the price.
Mornington Race 8 – 1600m – Frankston & Mornington Auto Group Guineas
1. Eshtiraak: Continues to look well on race day but fails to deliver what is needed. Back in class so to speak here. Up in distance should suit – may be looking for more tempo on.
2. Savaheat: On speed winner first up off what was a crawling around race. Previous best in past is a step below this.
3. Silent Command: On speed and died out of it very fast at end of last prep when not suited by the tempo. Did win the Morphetville Guineas off a benchmark style tempo the run prior.
4. Peruggia: Nice enough on speed win at distance at Moonee Valley last start. Continues to run well. May need to improve from that run but has the ability.
5. Barbeque: Running consistently well all prep and may have found the race to suit at the correct distance here. Mapping is the only thing against the horse.
6. Silverhawk: Pushed to lead last start and made to run a very unsuitable tempo. Expect to sit OL today and if gets the right tempo will be hard to get past.
7. Into Rio: Slowly run race last start at Cranbourne. Big jump in class and has to improve. Best in past not up to this.
8. Parsifal: BM-64 grade winner. Didn’t run time at all. Up in distance here but really hard to rate.
9. Spring Choice: Only ever seen a decent tempo once and was only fair. Not convinced of this horse going well here.
10. The Regiment: Couldn’t win a Class 1 last start. Yet to find a strong tempo race this prep to fully test the colt.
11. All Hard Wood: Three runs this prep and last start ran very well 2nd to Shaq at Sandown. Step up in grade and class here obviously but can improve again.
12. Kardashing: Deep into prep. Well backed in easier grade last start and ran into a nice type. Has to improve.
13. Sheezdashing: Very well backed last start at Flemington. Short back-up. Ran best data to date last start and steps back in class here up in distance.
14. Value Abbey: Maiden winner last start. Massive jump in class. Struggle to suggest.
15. Mylex: Not the worst form lines but hard to suggest on the back of two runs where couldn’t snag a maiden victory.
Very High Chance: Silverhawk, Barbeque
High Chance: Eshtiraak, Peruggia, Sheezdashing,
Medium Chance: All Hard Wood, Kardashing, Silent Command, Savaheat
Low Chance: Parsifal, Spring Choice, The Regiment
Very Low Chance: Into Rio, Mylex, Value Abbey
Expected Speed: Anywhere from 1L below benchmark early to 6L above. Expecting closer to benchmark.
Comments: Interesting race with a few standouts but also several in that middle zone that can improve. Silverhawk maps to have every chance on speed with the right tempo. Barbeque is the best horse here but maps awkwardly. Eshtiraak looks better suited here and can go well.
Mornington Race 9 – 1600m – Mitavite Challenge Final – BM-78
1. Shakopee: Didn’t show a lot and doesn’t look much better suited over 1600m here?
2. Dylanson: Won back in class. Ran quite well previous two starts. Not out of class here and is a genuine on speed chance.
3. Ma Jones: Not suited last start and ran a very good race previous start. Wants speed on but has strong closing speed at best.
4. Sly Romance: Deep into prep. 3000m back to 1600m. Surely not.
5. Heptagon: Continues to run strongly. Step up against required here but can see that happening. Horse has talent.
6. Our Peaky Blinders: Ran into a slowly run race last start and just missed from on speed. Beaten by a nice type. Query to run a strong race but looks to have the ability.
7. Sunday Pray: Very well backed last start and steps back in class. Did work and finished off okay enough with the gapped field. Wants stronger speed.
8. Kazio: Strong 2nd last start behind Heptagon. Can improve onwards again here.
9. Mandalay Bay: Beaten by Tigidig last start. Best in past off hot tempo go well here. Needs to find that form.
10. Miss Clooney: Claimed let off a slow tempo at Pakenham last start. Another gear required.
11. Toan Thang: Very good win two back against pattern. Last start strong late off a slow speed out front not suited. Can go well here and low weight.
Very High Chance: Ma Jones,
High Chance: Dylanson, Heptagon, Our Peaky Blinders
Medium Chance: Sunday Pray, Toan Thang, Kazio
Low Chance: Shakopee
Very Low Chance: Mandalay Bay, Sly Romance
Expected Speed: Dylanson should lead them around at a very solid tempo which could be anywhere from 2-10L above benchmark.
Comments: Ma Jones is the best horse here. The barrier is awkward but as long as she is taken off the rails at the right times and gets a run, she will be there in the finish powering over the top. Big odds. Our Peaky Blinders looks under the odds. Dylandson has the ability to stay on strongly out front. Toan Thang is big overs in the race and a genuine outsider threat. Expect Sunday Pray to be backed like last start.