Welcome to The Profits preview for Mornington and Randwick on 30 September 2017. With racing three days in a row this week, the Saturday meeting is a condensed formguide for the key plays I like on the cards at Mornington and Randwick. I may be on course so keep an eye on twitter for my thoughts from the yard. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Mornington Race 1
One horse i’m really keen on here in Emoji with the 3kg claim of Ethan Brown onboard. Emoji will be pushing forward with 3 other sin the race and i’m expecting we will sit outside the leader or 1 out 1 back on the day for the perfect run throughout. Emoji has improvement to come from the yard and covered a load of ground ridden back last start from the wide barrier. Expect back in this grade to be more positive. Main dangers look to be Gold Fields, Sir Mask, Beach Life and Light ‘n’ Fire.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Emoji – 1.5 units @ $5.00 to win. Emoji – 2 units @ $1.90 to place
Mornington Race 2
Sin to Win maps for an undisputed lead today coming off a second at Caulfield when he presented poorly in the yard and has a lot more to come today. Looks perfectly suited up to the 2000m based on last start and the way he can control and run the race. The Thug is one of the main dangers but I query just how effective he is back to the dry track today. Ubin Thunderstuck has been well backed and did defeat Crocodile Rock last start over 2400m on soft. 0 places from 4 starts on a good track certainly a concern but he obviously has ability having won a 2100m by 8L. Andrea Mantegna is the other main threat with a win over Goodwill two back at Sandown while failing on the heavy last start. Goes best over these distances based on French form.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Sin to Win – 1.25 units @ $3.20 to win. Ubin Thunderstruck 0.40 units @ $4.00 to win.
Mornington Race 6
The scratching of Gallante takes the speed out of this race and makes it really a race in two unless something decides to push them along out front today. King’s Way is the only likely leader and I can’t see it being more than a medium clip set.
Killarney Kid maps for the 1/1 poisiton and will get the perfect run throughout, allowed to make the move at the right time today. Based on his previous three runs, this is his race to win. Weight is the only issue.
Charlevoix is the main danger getting a 3kg swing on the kid today for a 0.1L defeat last start over the 2500m at Flemington. BVig query stepping back to 2000m today as the horses best is clearly over further than this, but he is certainly a nice type and will run well if finds runs.
Settler’s Stone has looked a nice type in the past but the first three runs don’t suggest a win here for me.
Confidnece 85%
Strategy: Killarney Kid – 3 units @ $3.40 to win
Randwick Race 7
This race has really fallen away with 4 scratchings since nominations with Egg Tart missing due to an eye infection and He’s Our Rokkii and I Am a Star taking on easier in Melbourne.
Tom Melbourne has been well backed with just 52kg into $6 2nd favorite and i’m not surprised. He is running well enough to win.
The horse to beat clearly is Happy Clapper and based on the last start run behind Winx, I have to be on today.
Snitzson gets into this race with 50.5kg and with Cory Parish onboard will get a beautiful ride from midfield. Looks well over the odds based on the last prep Group 1 3rd at Flemington overt this distance when the speed was hot.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Happy Clapper – 1.5 units @ $2.70 to win. Snitzson 0.25 units @ $31 to win.
