In his exclusive wrap up of the weekend’s races for Betfair punters, revered form analyst Dominic Beirne sees the autumn unfolding well for boom colt All Too Hard.
While I certainly agree with Beirne that All Too Hard will pull up well from that win, it was not a win that gives me confidence to take the shorts in any races going into the autumn. We are certainly not looking to take him on this prep without reasoning behind our picks in the races he will compete, but it is important to learn that Beirne noted that “Saturday’s C.F. Orr Stakes was the equal lowest-rated edition in the past 10 years” and that “His winning rating was a full step below his Cox Plate performance”. This win will create lower prices for All Too Hard over his next three runs, giving us an advantage off a form race that isn’t highly-rated.
The goal of Hawkes camp this prep should be to keep him in races that gives him a significant advantage on weights. His two runs last prep at 59kg saw him convincingly defeated and I can tell that with his racing style, there is a bit of the ‘Green Moons’ about him (Green Moon has recorded significantly higher ratings off lower weights all throughout his career).
Onto the Blue Diamond and like last year when Samaready looked to be the winner with dominant wins in the lead up (which we identified), there looks to be one main hope in Miracles of Life with similar runs under her belt. Interestingly, after a strong run on the weekend, Guelph has firmed into second favourite slightly behind Miracles of Life. We put Miracles of Life up as one of my best bets of the day two weeks back and she didn’t disappoint. She looks very progressive and as long as a favourable barrier is drawn, a win of over a length can be expected.
In his review of the Blue Diamond Preludes, Beirne concluded that “Of these four semi-finals, Miracles of Life has easily achieved the highest overall rating but the performance of Guelph on Saturday indicates that she is a worthy rival to the antepost favourite.
“Nevertheless, I am surprised at the closeness of the two fillies in current betting. I expect that if they each draw a reasonable barrier, the current gap in betting will widen in favour of Miracles of Life,”
Dominic Beirne’s weekly previews are available from 10am each Friday morning throughout the autumn carnival at www.betfair.com.au/dombeirne
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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