Racing model: Three month review

Horse Racing - Australia

After a successful Spring, the decision was made to offer exact betting strategies on the website to add more credibility and accountability to my service. The goal was not only to be transparent in regards to the results, but to also offer a service that was more active than before. In addition to these changes, more effort has been made into the research side of things and a greater focus has been made to lower variance, resulting in more winners more often. As most of you will know, this has resulted in a number of bets every week where we back more than one runner and the results suggest this move has been successful. Of course, there have been learnings along the way in regards to this kind of betting, but I feel these are all ironed out.

In regards to the frequency of betting, I felt that a lot of behind the scenes work I had been putting in on a daily basis would set me up for betting into the lower grade races ever day of the week, but as you will see with the results below, this didn’t go to plan and we had to adjust pretty quickly to get back to what we do best, quality races where there is simply less guess work and margin of variance in horse improvement.

At the start of this new racing model I asked everyone to not measure me on my results after a month, but to give me three months in total

Results

December 3 2015 to 22 December 2015 (19 days)
82 bets @ 4.31 per day

Start: 0.00 units
High Point: +14.15 units
Finishing Point: -10.34 units

December 26 2015 – February 29 2016 (65 days)
141 bets @ 2.16 per day
Start: -10.34 units
High Point: +34.43 units
Finishing Point: +31.43 units

I don’t think I need to say much about the first period. The stats above tell you all that is required. We were betting too often during the period with 4.31 bets per day in comparison with the 2.16 in the second period. Our main betting days have returned to Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, with very selective bets popping up throughout the week. We have been able to claw back from the -10.34 finishing position on 22 December 2015 to finish the three-month trial at +31.43 units.

Over the three month period we had four bets worth 4 units each or higher. It’s worth noting the amounts, the odds and how much they won by. The highest bet was 8 units @ $2.25 – 2.8 length victory, 5 units @ $2.10 – 3.0 length victory, 4 units @ $2.22 – 0.2 length victory and 4 units at $1.80 – 3 length victory. Three of the wins were by 2.8 lengths or more and the 4th bet by 0.2 lengths was a drifter $2.20 out to $3.95 on the day, but the horse still won and on replay it never looked like losing even considering the margin. I also note that all four of these bets were in races with 8 runners or less and this is something i’m going to try and track closer going forward (number of runners in the race).

I’ve looked more into the deep end of the second period especially focusing on the value bets and if you read on this is listed below.

While you may sit back and go wow, that’s a great result, and it probably is, I think it could have been better. I’ve described below two ‘freak’ incidents that hit us during the period which have certainly made our figures look worse. I also think there is still a lot more tinkering that can occur with my this model to increase profits and to stabilise the swings we suffered throughout the 3-months. So what’s the 12-month goal? My aim is 100 units. I think it’s achievable and i’m willing to aim for it.

Lightning strikes twice

Sandown 6 January 2016 – Tigidig Tigidig
This week there are 50 meetings run. Assuming there are 8 races on the cards that is 400 winners. Let’s extend that out by 52 weeks in a year and we have 20,800 winners around Australia. With Tigidig Tigidig we struck the ‘once a year’ weighing in light. In my previous five years of significant betting, i’ve never even bet into a race where a horse has weighed in light, so it’s certainly a very rare occurrence, 20000-1 if we assume it occurs once a year Australia wide and we struck it.

So instead of writing down +3.75 units onto our fixed odds results, we received a -1.5 unit result, a 5.25 unit turn around. This is racing and these things happen. Roll with it. We understand how unlucky our record looks having this on there, but what can we do apart from continue to call the industry on such a stupid rule. At worst it should have been a money back result.

Flemington 20 February 2016 – Palentino
This result is recorded on our records as -3.5 units. This unit staking certainly at the higher end with only four bets on individual runners over this amount, so you know it was a confident bet on the day. We locked in the $4s fixed and the horse jumped $3.85. The rest is history with most of you knowing the late protest was thrown in and a very controversial and in my opinion and the majority of the racing communities, incorrect decision, overturned the result. Some followers got the win with protest payout, but being a transparent service, there is 0 chance we will attempt to slide something like that into our figures.

The race was taken off Palentino and our celebrations on a perfect day were shattered. Most importantly, a +10.5 unit result on our record quickly turned around to a -3.5 result, a 14 unit swing overall.

These two events have resulted in a negative 19.25 units swing on our results.

I’m not trying to justify anything or even make excuses, but to have these two very rare results occur within the Dec 26 – Feb 29 period is just plain unlucky and if anything reinforces the positive results.

Was Flamberge luck?

Value runners have been an area I have put a lot of work into. From 26 Dec to 29 Jan, any E/W bet over $15+ odds or any place only bet over $3 (one) had recorded a -0.1 unit result. I personally feel that I struggle in regard to value runners in the ‘off-season’ and my best opportunities come in the lead up to carnivals and the early stages of carnivals.

Recent results speak for themselves
Since January 30 2016 there have been 6 horses in total backed at odds of $15 or higher.
4 of these were on an Each-Way basis and 2 were Win only bets alongside a more confident bet in the race, noting the runner is value.
Ginali went around in a 7 horse race at Flemington. The advice was to bet on Betfair to get the 3-places paid and that occurred.
The horse jumped $53.23/$6.31 and ran third for a strong place result.
See What I Bring went around at Caulfield the following week at $15/$4.20 fixed running third also.
Calaverite went around at Moonee Valley last Friday night and ran 8th at $31/$8
Flamberge went around $31/$8.50 fixed on Saturday in the Oakleigh Plate and won.

The single bets
Top Me Up ran at Flemington a decent 7th at $26
Aggregator at $26 lost in a photo by a nose at Sandown.

Even if we are to exclude the Flamberge result, since 30 Jan we would have bet 4.75 units for +3.13 with a $26 runner beaten a nose in a photo.

While this is only a small sample size, the results suggest to me that the form is stacking up for value runners.

Verdict

I would have been satisfied at the end of the three month period after the early issues to have pulled our results back into positive, so to have not only pulled ahead, but to get a 30 unit profit on the board, i’m happy with the results. Looking deeper into the figures has certainly showed me a number of tracks where improvements need to occur and betting ranges where i’m ‘losing’ profits overall. We are heading into Autumn with full momentum and it’s time to bet smarter and to capitalise.

On an important note to me, thanks to each and every one of you who have read this and continue to encourage and support me along the way. I hope to continue producing positive strong results going forward and look forward to many years of interactions going forward!

Remember, if it’s a question on racing, on improving your betting strategies or you simply need someone to talk to, i’m a real person and i’ll always reply to your tweets and direct messages. Hit me up @TheProfitsComAu.

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

Leave a Reply